The San Francisco 49ers face a pivotal offseason as their once-promising season spirals further from playoff contention. Sunday night's 35-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills dropped the team to 5-7, and with five games remaining, their postseason hopes appear slim. Compounding matters, injuries continue to decimate the roster, raising questions about the future of some of the team's highest-paid and most well-known players.
Quarterback Brock Purdy will be at the center of the team's decisions. While Purdy has shown flashes of excellence, his struggles in Buffalo's cold weather on Sunday left some fans questioning whether he can be (or should be) the long-term answer at quarterback. Purdy, returning from a shoulder injury, didn't look like a $60 million-per-year franchise player. But if Purdy isn't the answer, what is the alternative?
After years of failed experiments with quarterbacks like Brian Hoyer, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Trey Lance, can the 49ers afford to start their search again?
ESPN's Ben Solak recently examined the Bay Area team's future in great detail and what has led to its downfall. Is this injury-plagued season an anomaly for head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad or is it the closing of its Super Bowl window? Solak suggests it's the latter.
Aging stars, rising costs, mounting injuries
The 49ers' aging cast of playmakers hasn't been able to carry the squad like in past years—either due to injuries or Father Time catching up to them.
The injuries to running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason—both headed to injured reserve after Sunday's loss—are just the latest blows to a team that hasn't been able to stay healthy. McCaffrey suffered a PCL injury, ending his season, while Mason's high-ankle sprain raises some long-term durability concerns.
The 49ers signed Christian McCaffrey to a hefty two-year extension ahead of the season, locking him up through 2027. The running back didn't make it through four full games this season, missing the first eight due to Achilles tendinitis.
"McCaffrey is 28 years old and rapidly approaching the age cliff for running backs, who typically start to fall off when they hit 30," Solak wrote. "He's also coming off a 411-touch season that spanned 19 regular-season and postseason games. All of those hits wear on a running back."
Similarly, wide receiver Deebo Samuel's production has declined since his breakout 2021 season when he amassed 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 total touchdowns. Once a dual-threat superstar, Samuel has failed to surpass 900 receiving yards in any season since his 1,405 receiving yards in 2021.
"His average speed this season of 14.51 mph is the second-lowest of his six seasons in the league," Solak notes.
According to Pro Football Focus, Samuel's 7.8 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception are a career-low. One would think that, with wideout Brandon Aiyuk injured, Samuel would have more opportunities to shine. Yet, he has averaged just 48.3 receiving yards per game and hasn't surpassed 22 receiving yards in a game over the past three contests.
Meanwhile, Aiyuk held out for a massive contract ahead of the season and then struggled to produce after that holdout ended. There is no telling how quickly he will return to form after the torn ACL and MCL injury he suffered in October.
Offensive tackle Trent Williams, a cornerstone of the 49ers' line, is in the twilight of his NFL career. An ankle injury has limited the All-Pro this season, and Shanahan acknowledged there's no clear timetable for his return.
"Trent's really trying to get back out here," Shanahan said this week. "It's just his ankle isn't healing the way we want. We can't get the swelling down and stuff. So that's why I'd like to say it's day-to-day, week-to-week, because we're expecting the swelling to go down and everything. It just hasn't.
"So we're trying to be patient with. I know he's being patient with it, and hopefully, it'll take a turn in the right direction this week, but it hasn't yet, so there's no guarantees."
Williams held out for a restructured deal before the season, adding to the team's hefty financial commitments to veteran players.
Defensive struggles
The 49ers invested heavily in their defensive line this offseason, but the results have been underwhelming. Nick Bosa, already highly-paid, has battled hip and oblique injuries, sidelining him for the last two games. Meanwhile, big-ticket free agent Javon Hargrave hasn't met expectations, failing to be a force in the middle of the defensive front when healthy. He suffered a season-ending injury earlier this year.
"Hargrave's absence (and that of linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who popped his Achilles in last season's Super Bowl) explains some but not all of the 49ers' defensive struggles this season," Solak wrote. "The run defense was already starting to tail off late last season, when Hargrave and Greenlaw were both available. The poor depth along the line and commitment to Quarters shells (two-high defense) were starting to catch up to the team."
Additions like Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos, Jordan Elliott, and Maliek Collins have failed to make a significant enough impact to offset the defense's other shortcomings.
Glimmers of hope
Despite the challenges, some younger players have shown promise, offering a glimmer of hope for the team's future. Rookie right guard Dominick Puni has impressed in his first season, and often-criticized right tackle Colton McKivitz has allowed just one sack this year after surrendering nine in 2023, per Pro Football Focus.
Rookie cornerback Renardo Green is the team's highest-graded defensive back, while rookie safety Malik Mustapha has flashed his potential as a hard-hitting playmaker. While he hasn't had many opportunities since recovering from a gunshot wound to the chest, the 49ers have high expectations for their first-round draft pick, wideout Ricky Pearsall.
With McCaffrey and Mason sidelined, rookie running back Isaac Guerendo will have an opportunity to showcase his skills in the coming weeks.
Tough decisions ahead
The offseason will force the 49ers to decide whether to double down on their current core or tackle another roster overhaul. What that means for Purdy—and the team's immediate future—remains unclear.
"There is exactly one way to reliably print Super Bowl appearances, year over year, and it is this: having the best quarterback in the NFL," Solak concluded. "The 49ers do not, so despite all of their other excellence, their run had an expiration date. We didn't know exactly when it would hit, but it was inevitable, and it has arrived.
"The book isn't closed on Shanahan, Lynch and Purdy. No huge sweeping changes must be made. But this chapter is finished, and a roster reload is inevitable."
The 49ers' decision-makers face a difficult decision. Is it time for a reboot, or should they roll the dice once more and push for another run at a championship after failing to reach the top so many times?