According to The Athletic's projections, the San Francisco 49ers had an 88 percent chance of reaching the playoffs before the regular season began. That number jumped to 91 percent after their Week 1 victory over the New York Jets, marking their season-high projection.
The Athletic's projections are based on 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, factoring in each team's projected strength and health. Unfortunately for the 49ers, injuries have been a significant issue. Running back Christian McCaffrey has yet to play a game, and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending knee injury. As of Monday, wideout Deebo Samuel was hospitalized with pneumonia. These injuries barely scratch the surface for a team that will now see Aiyuk become the 10th player added to its injured reserve list.
As the 49ers struggled through the early weeks of the season, their playoff chances steadily declined. However, the team saw brief surges in its odds after wins over the New England Patriots in Week 4 and the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, when it briefly held the top spot in the NFC West standings.
According to The Athletic's projections, the 49ers had a 64 percent chance of making the playoffs entering Sunday's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, following their Week 7 loss, that figure has plummeted to 34 percent, as the Dallas Cowboys are set to visit Levi's Stadium this weekend.
"There's no way to sugarcoat that. We got our ass kicked today," head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the loss to the Chiefs. "Lots of reasons for it ... We'll address all those tomorrow. We'll get together, we'll go through the truth of the whole tape, be hard on each other, and find a way to put it to bed so we can come out here and make sure we put our best foot forward and find a way to get a win versus Dallas."
The 49ers' best path to the postseason is winning the NFC West, a division that is not seen as particularly strong. According to The Athletic's projections, San Francisco still has a 31 percent chance of clinching the division title, the highest in the NFC West. The Los Angeles Rams have a 24 percent chance, the Seahawks have a 23 percent chance, and the Arizona Cardinals have a 22 percent chance.
The 49ers entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. While those ambitions likely haven't changed inside the locker room, players and coaches must acknowledge the uphill battle ahead. Before Week 1, The Athletic gave San Francisco a league-leading 14 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Now, the Kansas City Chiefs hold the top spot at 18 percent, while the 49ers' odds have dropped to just two percent.
Before Sunday's game, The Athletic projected the 49ers to finish with a 10-7 record. Following their latest loss, the projection now stands at 8-9—curiously, the same record predicted for every team in the NFC West.