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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Cynthia Frelund projects 49ers to lead NFL in wins for 2024 season

May 16, 2024 at 10:31 AM

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Shortly after the release of the 2024 NFL schedule, respected NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund unveiled her win total projections for the entire league for the 2024 season.

While each team's opponents have been known for some time, each game's actual dates and times factor into the analyst's projections, which consider travel, consecutive games against elite opponents, and other variables.

RELATED Complete 2024 San Francisco 49ers Schedule Revealed

"Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games," Frelund explains. "These simulations yielded a projected win total for each team, which, thanks to the multitude of factors involved, is not always a round number."

Additionally, Frelund notes that other factors, such as play-caller tendencies and in-game situations, influence a team's win probability.

While these projections are subject to change, the San Francisco 49ers topped Frelund's current list with 11.2 wins, narrowly ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles' 11.1 wins and the Kansas City Chiefs' projected 10.9 victories.

"No surprise here, with the reigning NFC champions topping this list," Frelund wrote. "The 49ers are returning a large percentage of their offensive players -- and they added surplus value to the receiving corps in first-round pick Ricky Pearsall. Keep hating on Brock Purdy if you must, but the man just led the league in yards per attempt (9.6), passer rating (113.0), QBR (72.8) and expected points added (115.6, per Next Gen Stats)."

Entering his third NFL season, Purdy comes off an impressive 2023 campaign where the young quarterback set a single-season franchise record with 4,280 passing yards before leading the 49ers through the playoffs to the Super Bowl.

"Defensively, the Niners reshuffled the deck up front around Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave, while spending two of their top four draft picks on defensive backs," Frelund continued. "One tricky part of the schedule: Following the Week 9 bye, San Francisco faces three road tilts against 2023 Divisional Round teams (Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Buffalo) in a four-game span, with the lone home contest coming against rival Seattle."

Click here for a breakdown of the 49ers' complete 2024 season schedule.
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