The San Francisco 49ers will host the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, and for once, there doesn't seem to be a ton of drama in this storied rivalry matchup.
San Francisco enters the weekend undefeated. And while the Cowboys are undoubtedly aiming to knock off their crown, those same Cowboys lost (8-16) in Week 3 to the same Arizona Cardinals team the 49ers beat handily (35-16) last week. Despite all the angst over in Jerry World, San Francisco should be expected to top the Cowboys for the third straight time.
The 49ers are likely to win for the same reason that they won in the Divisional Round last year, and the Wild Card the year before. Those were close games, sure, but not coin flips. San Francisco had the better execution, scheming, and organizational stability. They gave themselves room to let the Cowboys beat themselves, and they did get a little lucky that Dallas obliged.
But those kinds of catastrophes happen when you're sprinting just to catch up to the front-runner, not when you're entering the final stretch with a solid lead and a steady rhythm. Don't get me wrong; the Cowboys could absolutely walk into Levi's Stadium and end up winning on Sunday. It's just not likely.
It's not likely for the same reason that it wasn't likely the Rams would beat the 49ers in the 2021 NFC Championship game. Sure, LA ended up winning, but it's not because they were the strictly better team. They won because if you roll the dice enough, you'll eventually come up with double sixes. Jaquiski Tartt failed to pull down that go ball, and the Rams were a good enough team to make the Niners pay for giving them an extra possession. Dallas can do that too, this weekend, if they get that chance.
But they're not good enough to make that chance happen, not all by themselves. That's not a knock on them - right now, nobody's good enough to beat the Niners without quite a bit of help. The 2021 Rams weren't, either; they couldn't put away a Niners squad that they had a seven point lead on with less than two minutes to go. They still ended up winning the Super Bowl.
There is one thing, though, that makes me reconsider the tenor of this whole article. It's not Micah Parson being a "bully of bullies," or Tony Pollard being a clear upgrade over Ezekiel Elliot, or even Brock Purdy finally seeing the ghosts that everyone else wants him to see. It's the potential for this game to be defined by injury.
The Cowboys absolutely need this game more than San Francisco does. They need to get the monkey off their back after two consecutive postseason losses, they need to get back into the No. 1 seed conversation in the NFC, and they need to prove - spiritually, if nothing else - that they're more than the 49ers' little brother in this decade.
Which means they'll be playing with full aggression, and likely perhaps a bit risky. After all, they still need to find what'll work against San Francisco in January. But that type of play carries the potential to go a little too far, a little too low. If the Cowboys win a close game in which CeeDee Lamb burns Charvarius Ward for a deep TD and Dallas forces two fumbles, then (oversized novelty) hats off to them. If Dallas wins a game where Christian McCaffrey goes down for the season with an ACL tear on a low hit... well, Eagles fans are still bragging about Haason Reddick ripping through Purdy's elbow.
Truth is, either way, this game is an inflection point for both teams this season. But the only way the Cowboys can really make the 49ers hurt from it is to make them physically hurt from it. Other than that, no matter the result, San Francisco will ride that wave, potentially straight on through to the end of the season. The Cowboys, though, can absolutely get capsized by it.
Which is why predicting a 49ers victory isn't exactly a bold one. They're a better team, at home, and with more consistency than any team in the league. The Cowboys shouldn't be ashamed if they lose to San Francisco, and it won't make them less of a postseason contender. But if the 49ers do win, barring a gruesome and season-defining injury, then what do they really have left to prove? A #1 seed race with the Philadelphia Eagles? A little pressure to patch up a small weakness with a superstar on the trade block?
No, if the Niners win, the next challenge won't be for them. It'll be for the entire rest of the National Football League, comprising one, simple question:
"Who can stop these guys?"