With Sam Darnold as QB2 for the 49ers, what’s next for Trey Lance?

It's official: the San Francisco 49ers have named Sam Darnold as the backup quarterback to Brock Purdy, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero, meaning that Trey Lance's future with the team is currently unknown.

Pelissero and Rapoport reported that the 49ers will explore all options with Lance, which could include a trade, but the reality is: the number of suitors willing to match the 49ers on their desired price point is likely low, if any, given how close it is to the season.

So, what's next for Trey Lance?

First, let's examine how exactly we got to this instance.

How we got here

Just yesterday, and really over the past few weeks, I've hinted at this scenario becoming a reality, as the 49ers appear to like the consistency that Sam Darnold provides, as well as the known commodity that he is with his 55 games of starting experience.

While the tape hasn't been good over those 55 games, the 49ers, and specifically head coach Kyle Shanahan, understand exactly what they have, which helps them tailor the offense to that quarterback, as opposed to the unknown commodity that Trey Lance is, which can be directly seen during the preseason games, as the latter has continually improved off slow starts, going through his ups and downs as the game goes along.

Now, do I agree with the decision? No.

Trey Lance, in my opinion, looked like the better of the two options heading out of training camp, as he stacked better overall days, while having some of the highs, as well as some of the lows, of any quarterback during camp. However, as the days went along, he seemingly outplayed Darnold over the entire body of work.

I wasn't the only one to share this sentiment, as fellow beat reporters like Matt Maiocco wrote that he felt Lance had overtaken Darnold during camp after initially favoring the latter to the former at the beginning of the two-week period.

Fast-forward to the preseason and Lance struggled in Week 1, despite a good statline, although he played better as the day went along, similarly to his Week 2 performance, where he shook off an interception to compile three straight scoring drives, and ultimately lead the 49ers to victory at the end.

Darnold, on the other hand, didn't impress, but remained consistently average, which has been his moniker throughout training camp, and the factor that the 49ers appear to desire, understanding Kyle Shanahan's ability to get the most out of his quarterbacks.

However, let me clarify: while I felt that Lance has looked like the better quarterback this offseason, it hasn't been by a wide margin, as the former No. 3 pick has gone through a number of ups and downs, showcasing the inconsistencies that come with an inexperienced quarterback.

And it's nothing you wouldn't expect from a player in his position, but there was a hope that Lance would excel and truly put a stamp on the No. 2 quarterback spot, which hasn't been the case, and instead has opened the door for Sam Darnold to come in and earn the backup spot.

What's next?

At this point, as I mentioned earlier, it's hard to envision a trade occurring for Trey Lance, given the timing of the situation.

Throughout the offseason, I've laid out two scenarios: 1) Trey Lance has a strong training camp and preseason, beating out Sam Darnold for the backup job. In this instance, the 49ers would be inclined to keep Lance, given their quarterback injury history, as well as the fact that they'd be most comfortable with Lance in relief. 2) Trey Lance struggles during training camp and the preseason, opening the door for Darnold to beat him for the No. 2 spot. In this instance, the 49ers would resort to keeping Lance as the third option, mainly due to the fact of how unlikely facilitating a trade would be at this stage of the offseason.

Option 2 seems to be the one coming to fruition, and it seems likely that Lance will remain on the 53-man roster as the third quarterback, especially given that head coach Kyle Shanahan said that the backup quarterback could alternate throughout the season, depending on who better fits the scout role.

Of course, Shanahan also said he'd wait to declare a backup quarterback until Week 1, and that clearly wasn't the case.

For Trey Lance, my prediction is that he remains on the team for the majority, if not all, of the 2023 season, and gets moved either prior to or during free agency, as teams are looking for their next signal-callers.

There would be available suitors then who are willing to take a flyer on Lance as their starting quarterback in a "reset" year, where they could draft a different high-quality player and roll with the former No.3 pick in 2024.

If Lance pans out, they have a quarterback of the future, and if he struggles in Year 1, that team could always go to the draft in 2025 and select their signal-caller of the future.

But, as of now, it appears Trey Lance's future in San Francisco is over, with the only real possibility of him playing happening in a scenario like last season, where the 49ers had to resort to their third quarterback.