ESPN's Mike Clay anticipates that Brock Purdy will start 14 games with the San Francisco 49ers during the upcoming season, leaving three for Trey Lance. That makes sense. While the 49ers are hopeful about Purdy's return timeline, skepticism surrounds his Week 1 availability, leaving many believing that Lance or newcomer Sam Darnold might open the season under center.
Purdy will likely still be recovering from his surgery in March to repair the tear of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow.
Clay released his player and team projections for the NFL in 2023. San Francisco is projected to earn 9.9 wins (we'll just say 10), which ranks sixth in the NFL and third in the NFC (behind the Dallas Cowboys with 10.8 and the Philadelphia Eagles with 10.3). That is tops among NFC West teams. The Seattle Seahawks are projected to win 8.2 games. Clay has the Arizona Cardinals with 7.7 victories and the Los Angeles Rams with 6.2.
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San Francisco's lowest win probability in a 2023 matchup comes against the Eagles in a rematch of the NFC Championship Game. Clay calculates only a 40 percent chance the Niners will come out on top in that clash.
Interestingly, Clay has the 49ers earning the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff picture, with the Cowboys earning home-field advantage.
As for Purdy, Clay projects the 49ers' second-year quarterback throwing for 3,396 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions through his 14 games while adding 121 yards and three more touchdowns on 42 rushing attempts. What about Lance? He is listed with 694 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions in his three games.
Clay has running back Christian McCaffrey leading the 49ers with 1,435 all-purpose yards (860 rushing, 575 receiving) and 10 total touchdowns. He has Deebo Samuel (935 yards) and Brandon Aiyuk (872 yards) leading the team in receiving.
On defense, Clay has 2022's NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bosa, leading the team with 13.1 sacks (we'll say 13). Surprisingly, he has linebacker Dre Greenlaw, not Fred Warner, leading the 49ers in tackles. Greenlaw is projected to have 139, two more than Warner. Of course, Greenlaw averaged more tackles per game (8.47) than Warner (7.65) in 2022. Greenlaw just played fewer games, allowing Warner to take the lead in that category (130 vs. 127).
Safety Talanoa Hufanga is projected to lead the team in takeaways with 2.7 interceptions.
Click here to view Clay's entire PDF file, which lists all of his projections for the 2023 NFL season. The 49ers' data can be found on page 30.
