Many people are questioning the San Francisco 49ers' move to add quarterback Trey Lance in 2021. It's not that they don't see potential in the 22-year-old quarterback. It's that the 49ers gave up a lot of draft capital to move up in that draft to select Lance. Two years later, San Francisco doesn't even know if Lance will be the team's franchise quarterback, thanks to the emergence of rookie Brock Purdy.
And talk about value. The 49ers selected Purdy with the last overall pick in last year's draft. He led the team all the way to the NFC Championship game before suffering an injury.
Lance will have an opportunity to prove himself this offseason, though. Soon, he will be the only healthy quarterback under contract on head coach Kyle Shanahan's roster. Lance started the 2022 season as the starter, but his season ended due to a Week 2 ankle injury.
Lance expects to be healthy in time for organized team activities (OTAs) in May. Purdy is expected to miss six months after undergoing surgery on February 22 to repair the tear of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow suffered during the NFC Championship Game. Still, many believe that, once healthy, Purdy remains the frontrunner to start in 2023.
That has left Pro Football Focus to question the move to add Lance. Analyst Michael Renner named each NFL team's biggest draft mistake over the past five years, and the move to add Lance was listed as the 49ers'.
"With the 49ers having a roster in position to win immediately, it never quite made sense to draft the least experienced and youngest quarterback in the 2021 class," Renner wrote.
You might argue that it made a lot of sense—at the time. The 49ers liked Lance a lot and saw the young quarterback's raw potential. The problem was that Lance lacked experience. Because San Francisco's roster was so stacked at the time, the team could afford to sit Lance and have him learn behind Jimmy Garoppolo.
The plan appeared to make even more sense when the 49ers declared Lance the starter heading into this past season. The ankle injury changed things, though. What was supposed to be a season of gaining experience, supported by a championship-caliber roster, turned into another season of watching and learning.
Lance entered the NFL with just one full season of collegiate experience. Heading into year three in the league, he has started just four games under his belt.
"After a leg injury to start the year, Lance is still the least experienced quarterback in that class, with just 124 career dropbacks to his name," wrote Renner.