The San Francisco 49ers scored 38 against and stomped the Arizona Cardinals for the second time this season, sweeping the NFC West division in what may have been Kliff Kingbury's last game as a NFL head coach. The Niners will try to beat the Seattle Seahawks for the third time this season when they host a 2023 Wild Card game. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday January 14th, 2023 at 1:30pm PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -10, o/u 43
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks got a field goal in overtime to squeak by the Los Angeles Rams by a 19-16 final score as five-point pregame favorites, receiving help from a never-say-die Detroit Lions team who upset and ended the season of Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. Kenneth Walker III rushed 29 times for 114 yards, Geno Smith threw a touchdown pass to Tyler Lockett in addition to 2 interceptions in the win.
After eighteen weeks, Seattle ranks 10th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 5.8 percent, 16th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 0.1 percent with a 8th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 24.1 and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -9.5 percent. The Seahawks defense is rated 20th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 1.3 percent with an 17th rated defensive pass DVOA at 3.8 percent and 25th rated defensive rush DVOA at 1.9 percent.
Geno Smith is 9th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 764 and 6th in total QBR at 61.1 with 30 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 70.4 completion percentage. Seattle's offensive line is 30th in run blocking with 4.04 adjusted line yards and 26th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 8.6 percent. The Seahawks' defensive line is 25th against the run with 4.70 adjusted line yards and 10th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.8 percent.
The Seahawks are 7-10 ATS and 8-9 to the over/under. The Seahawks have only covered once in its last 8 games and are 2-4 ATS in division games, and are 5-2 to the over/under in away games. Safeties Ryan Neal and Joey Blount, defensive tackle Bryan Mone and guard Phil Haynes are questionable for the Wild Card game.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy tossed 3 touchdown passes, including two more to George Kittle, and Elijah Mitchell ran for 2 scores, while the defense tallied 3 interceptions and 3 sacks in the 38-13 victory in Week 18.
After eighteen weeks, San Francisco ranks 2nd in total DVOA at 27.6 percent, 2nd in total weighted offensive DVOA at 23.2 percent with a 3rd ranked offensive pass DVOA at 35.7 percent and 13th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -0.5 percent. The 49er defense is rated 2nd in total weighted defensive DVOA at -13.3 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -8.0 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -23.6 percent.
After action in 6 games, Brock Purdy has a DYAR of 458 and total QBR of 65.6 with 13 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, zero fumbles and a 67.1 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 4th in run blocking with 4.70 adjusted line yards and 10th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.3 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.68 adjusted line yards and 16th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.0 percent.
The 49ers are 11-6 ATS and 9-8 to the over/under. San Francisco is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS in division games. Guard Aaron Banks, cornerback Ambry Thomas, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and defensive tackle Kevin Givens are questionable for the Wild Card game.
Prediction
The San Francisco 49ers have covered every spread against divisional opponents and 7 of 8 as a home favorite this season, and since we are picking the Niners to win the NFC and play in the Super Bowl, we will not be fading them in the first game of the playoffs despite the huge spread.
The Seahawks and Geno Smith came back down to earth in the second half of the season, only beating the Rams (twice) and Jets in their final 8 games, backing into the playoffs with some help. They say it's hard to beat a team 3 times in a row, and a Seattle team with nothing to lose may put up a bit more of a fight and possibly have more success scoring than the first two times these teams met, but with San Francisco getting healthy at the right time, we do not envision Seattle pulling off the monumental upset or keeping it that close.
Pick: 49ers -10
2022 Season ATS: 10-14