The San Francisco 49ers escaped from Sin City with its ninth straight win but did not cover for the first time in seven games in a thrilling, 37-34 overtime shootout against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Niners will try to maintain the number two seed or improve to the number one seed when they host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday January 8th, 2023 at 1:25 pm PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -14, o/u 40.5
Arizona Cardinals
James Conner ran for 79 yards on 16 carries and Trey McBride caught 7 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown in the Arizona Cardinals 19-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
After seventeen weeks, Arizona ranks 29th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -21.4 percent, 29th in total weighted offensive DVOA at -15.3 percent with a 29th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -10.1 percent and 27th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -13.0 percent. The Cardinals defense is rated 22nd in total weighted defensive DVOA at 4.3 percent with a 20th rated defensive pass DVOA at 7.3 percent and 23rd rated defensive rush DVOA at 0.7 percent.
In Week 17, David Blough completed 24 of 40 passes for 222 yards and a passing touchdown, and was sacked twice. Arizona's offensive line is 24th in run blocking with 4.27 adjusted line yards and 16th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.9 percent. The Cardinals' defensive line is 18th against the run with 4.40 adjusted line yards and 27th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.7 percent.
The Cardinals are 8-8 ATS and 7-7-2 to the over/under. Arizona is 4-2 ATS as an away underdog and 1-4 ATS in division games. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins and quarterback Colt McCoy are out, cornerbacks Marco Wilson and Antonio Hamilton, running back James Conner, tackle Rashaad Coward, defensive end Zach Allen and receiver Robbie Anderson are questionable for Week 18.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while also catching 6 passes for 72 yards, Brandon Aiyuk received 9 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown but perhaps the most notable stat from San Francisco's Week 17 box score was Jarrett Stidham torching the 49ers defense for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, though he did throw 2 picks including the game sealing interception in overtime.
After seventeen weeks, San Francisco ranks 3rd in total DVOA at 25.9 percent, 3rd in total weighted offensive DVOA at 21.3 percent with a 4th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 32.9 percent and 12th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -0.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 2nd in total weighted defensive DVOA at -13.4 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -7.5 percent and 1st rated defensive rush DVOA at -24.2 percent.
After action in 5 games, Brock Purdy has a DYAR of 281 and total QBR of 67.8 with 10 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, zero fumbles and a 66.0 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 4th in run blocking with 4.73 adjusted line yards and 8th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 5.8 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 3rd against the run with 3.79 adjusted line yards and 19th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.9 percent.
The 49ers are 10-6 ATS and 8-8 to the over/under. San Francisco is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS in division games. Running back Elijah Mitchell and receiver Deebo Samuel have returned to practice, defensive tackle Kevin Givens and running back Christian McCaffrey are questionable, and Jimmy Garoppolo remains out for Week 18.
Prediction
By the time San Francisco's game kicks off, the Minnesota Vikings will have likely defeated a Chicago Bears squad that will have started Nathan Peterman, and the Philadelphia Eagles contest against the New York Giants will be commencing simultaneously, indicating that the 49ers will have incentive to win the game to either keep the two seed or somehow capture the number one seed if the Eagles happen to falter as 14 point favorites at home.
Bears' QB Nathan Peterman will start in place of Justin Fields on Sunday vs. the Vikings.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 4, 2023
The Niners have been dominating at home and in the division but late season match-ups between teams that need to win against teams that have nothing to play for have often led to inflated lines with the teams with nothing to play for covering against the spread at a winning percentage.
We anticipate San Francisco coming out strong in the first half, making the 49ers first half spread or Cardinals first half team total under reasonable leans, but could easily see the Niners taking their foot off the gas in the second half, and two touchdowns being too many to lay for the full game within the division after the Cardinals were embarrassed the first time they met.
Pick: Cardinals +14
2022 Season ATS: 10-13