The San Francisco 49ers are one of, if not the hottest team in the league right now, having won 7 in a row to capture their first NFC West title since 2019. They're favored by about a touchdown, playing at home, and with the NFL's number one defense by, oh, Total Yards, First Downs Allowed, Rushing Yards Allowed, Rushing Yards Per Attempt, Expected Points Contributed, and Scoring Percentage. The difference between how often the 49ers and the next best team allow opposing offenses to score, by the way, is the same gap between the second and fifteenth best teams. So how, you might ask, do the Commanders stand a snowball's chance in hell against a San Francisco squad on extra rest?
Most teams would look back to the loss that kickstarted the 49ers' win streak frenzy, a 44-point gashing against Kansas City that saw Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce tear up the turf in Santa Clara. But very few teams have a Mahomes to work with, and a Niners defense that hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game since then is going to be even harder to victimize that way. No, the answer goes all the way back to the week 6 blowout against Atlanta, when the Falcons put up 28 points against San Francisco and never truly let them into the game. That day, they had three rushers go for at least 50 yards, with Marcus Mariota completing 13 passes on only 14 attempts yet nevertheless dominating San Francisco's defense. The Niners may have been depleted that day, but if the Commanders want to take home a cross-country win, that's the game plan they'll need to stick to.
That's because the ground-pounding, complementary football strategy is also what Washington does best. They're the only team in football that averages more Time of Possession per game (32:48) than the 49ers (32:11), and that's not on accident. Despite being the 28th-worst team at converting third downs, Washington has found a formula to consistently control the ball longer than their opponents - wait. Like, actually just waiting around. They average the third-longest time between snaps at 32.95 seconds, trailing only the Titans and Packers. It sounds silly, but with an offense that has significantly fewer star pieces than San Francisco's, it's helped them tilt the balance in favor of an aggressive defense that's just getting back 2020 second-overall pick Chase Young.
The 49ers are no stranger to the trap game, and their focus could waver following a mini bye week and an already-secured division title. If they do, Washington could follow Atlanta's lead, and use an early clock-chewing drive or two to put the 49ers in a tough hole for new starting quarterback Brock Purdy to dig out of. The 49ers, to their credit, aren't taking RB Brian Robinson and the rest of Washington's rushing attack lightly. 49ers' defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans spoke about the topic on Wednesday, stating, "Probably the best run game we've seen since Atlanta. So, it'll be a really good matchup for us."
If the 49ers want to win today's matchup, they'd better hope their #1-ranked rushing defense can slow down Washington's languid offensive attack. Otherwise, they'll be twisted in more knots than one of Dan Snyder's pretzels.
