The San Francisco 49ers continued the hot streak, winning its 7th straight game and wrapping up the NFC West title by stifling the Seahawks in Seattle by a 21-13 score. The Niners return home to face a Washinton Commanders team that is fighting for playoff contention. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Saturday December 24th, 2022 at 1:05pm PT (CBS)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -7, o/u 39.5
Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders are coming off of a hard-fought loss on Sunday night football, falling 12-20 to division-rival, New York Giants in a game where some argued the Commanders were victims of poor officiating, particularly on a goal-line stand at the end of the game. Taylor Heinicke completed 17 of 29 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown to Jahan Dotson, and was sacked 3 times, Brian Robinson rushed for 89 yards on 12 carries and Terry McLaurin caught 6 balls for 70 yards.
After fifteen weeks, Washington ranks 19th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -4.4 percent, 25th in total weighted offensive DVOA at -11.1 percent with a 25th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -12.0 and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -10.7 percent. The Commanders defense is rated 9th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -6.4 percent with a 15th rated defensive pass DVOA at 3.1 percent and 4th rated defensive rush DVOA at -15.7 percent.
Taylor Heinicke is 25th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -15 and 27th in total QBR at 41.6 with 10 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, 4 fumbles lost and a 61.9 completion percentage. Washington's offensive line is 17th in run blocking with 4.41 adjusted line yards and 23rd in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 9.0 percent. The Commanders' defensive line is 6th against the run with 4.03 adjusted line yards and 15th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.2 percent.
The Commanders are 7-7 ATS and 4-9-1 to the over/under. Washington is 6-2-1 ATS in non-division games, 1-4 to the over/under after a loss, 2-4-1 to the over/under as the away team. Center Tyler Lawson is out, defensive end Chase Young, quarterback Carson Wentz, cornerback Benjamin St-Juste and tackle Saahdiq Charles are questionable for Week 16.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy was solid in his first road start, completing 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns to George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey ran for 108 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries at Seattle. San Francisco's defense sacked Geno Smith 3 times, recovered a fumble on a vicious hit by Dre Greenlaw and had a pick-6 called back on a questionable roughing call on Nick Bosa.
After fifteen weeks, San Francisco ranks 3rd in total DVOA at 26.6 percent, 5th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 16.0 percent with a 4th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 31.4 percent and 18th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -5.5 percent. The 49er defense is rated 1st in total weighted defensive DVOA at -20.0 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -14.3 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -23.2 percent.
After action in 3 games, Brock Purdy has a DYAR of 158 and total QBR of 67.9 with 6 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions, zero fumbles and a 66.7 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 7th in run blocking with 4.68 adjusted line yards and 8th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 5.8 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.68 adjusted line yards and 14th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent.
The 49ers are 9-5 ATS and 6-8 to the over/under. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS and 2-4 to the over/under as a home favorite. Safety Tarvarius Moore, cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Samuel Womack III and defensive tackle Kevin Givens are questionable, and receiver Deebo Samuel remains out for Week 16.
Prediction
After recently turning into a covering machine by winning against-the-spread in 5 straight games, taken together with Shanahan's inconsistent history as a large favorite at Levi's and now even more tape on Brock Purdy, San Francisco is at the top of the market and we estimate that a 7-point spread is an inflated number. We would lean with taking the points but are unwilling to step in front of the Niners with the way its defense is playing.
They say defense travels well (and win championships) and Washington, who has been without star rusher Chase Young and is coming off of a loss, features one of the better defenses San Francisco and Brock Purdy will have faced this season, and the Niners defense is the best defensive unit Taylor Heinicke and Washington's middling offensive unit will see this year, and this is a recipe for a low scoring game, even more so if Chase Young suits up for the first time in 2022.
Ron Rivera When asked about getting Chase Young out there: (also note: Dr Andrews checked him out Sunday; told him his knee was good. Believe we're looking at sink or swim time Saturday.). pic.twitter.com/r1nN5skrlO
— John Keim (@john_keim) December 19, 2022
Pick: Under 39.5
Bonus Pick: Washington team total under 15.5
2022 Season ATS: 10-10