The San Francisco 49ers could not have looked better in Brock Purdy's first NFL start in a complete, 35-7 domination of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14. But it's one thing for a rookie to perform in the friendly confines of his home stadium, and another for said rookie to go on the road and face an NFL defense in a hostile environment, perhaps even more so at Lumen Field and its 12th man where the Niners will travel on the short week to take on the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night football. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Thursday December 15, 2022 at 5:15pm PT (Prime)
- Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
- Line: 49ers -3.5; o/u 43.5
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are coming off of a 24-30 loss to Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers in Seattle and have now lost three straight home games, though one of those "home" games was in Germany. Geno Smith may be regressing a bit to the mean as he threw two interceptions against Carolina, likely impacted by Kenneth Walker III's absence and being sacked three times, but he also tossed 3 touchdown passes to 3 different receivers, completing 21 of 36 passes for 264 yards.
After fourteen weeks, Seattle ranks 10th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 7.8 percent, 11th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 6.9 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 29.7 and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -10.7 percent. The Seahawks defense is rated 23rd in total weighted defensive DVOA at 14.9 percent with an 18th rated defensive pass DVOA at 6.6 percent and 26th rated defensive rush DVOA at 2.7 percent.
Geno Smith is 8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 760 and 5th in total QBR at 64.4 with 25 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 72.0 completion percentage. Seattle's offensive line is 32nd in run blocking with 3.96 adjusted line yards and 28th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 9.0 percent. The Seahawks' defensive line is 25th against the run with 4.70 adjusted line yards and 10th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.8 percent.
The Seahawks are 6-7 ATS and 8-5 to the over/under. Seattle is 2-0 ATS and 0-2 to the over/under as a home underdog. Running backs Deejay Dallas and Kenneth Walker III, safeties Joey Blount and Ryan Neal, defensive end Shelby Harris and defensive tackle Al Woods are questionable for Week 15.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense torpedoed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from the jump, including a second quarter where Purdy ran for a touchdown and passed for 2 more, in a contest that was over by halftime. The rookie quarterback was making deep, aggressive throws that Niners Empire has not been accustomed to seeing recently, but San Francisco may have paid a costly price for said aggression as Deebo Samuel was carted off with a significant leg injury.
After fourteen weeks, San Francisco ranks 3rd in total DVOA at 25.3 percent, 6th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 13.6 percent with a 6th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 29.5 percent and 19th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -6.4 percent. The 49er defense is rated 1st in total weighted defensive DVOA at -18.5 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -12.5 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -24.3 percent.
Brock Purdy finished with 16 completions on 21 passes for 185 yards and zero turnovers or sacks in Week 14. San Francisco's offensive line is 9th in run blocking with 4.64 adjusted line yards and 10th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.0 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.65 adjusted line yards and 12th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.5 percent.
The 49ers are 8-5 ATS and 6-7 to the over/under. The 49ers are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under as away favorites. Cornerbacks Ambry Thomas and Samuel Womack III, defensive linemen Arik Armstead, Kerry Hyder Jr., Kevin Givens and Hassan Ridgeway, safety Tarvarius Moore, running back Christian McCaffrey, receiver Deebo Samuel and quarterback Brock Purdy are questionable for Week 15.
Prediction
This week's handicap has little to do with X's and O's but will be mostly predicated on betting theory, including the concept that no teams is as good as its best performance or bad as its worst. San Francisco has won 6 and covered 4 straight and is approaching the top of the market with the Purdy hype train gaining steam and leading to dramatic reactions including talk of his name, the Super Bowl and the word "star" being used in the same sentence.
What if Brock Purdy...wins the Super Bowl?
"You're going to have the biggest conflict for 49ers fans in history." — @RSherman_25 pic.twitter.com/ui5xQIbw6E
— The Volume (@TheVolumeSports) December 12, 2022
Drawing Jimmy G every day until he gets traded. Day 313: pic.twitter.com/Ld1O7720LL
— Rita Oak (@ritaoak_art) December 12, 2022
But when a team is at the top of the market and overreactions are being made on a rookie quarterback who has zero road starts in the NFL is usually when it's time to sell, even more so on a short week in a division contest against a team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games and 0-3 straight up in its last 3 home contests.
The injured player theory in sports betting posits that the team steps up in the first game after an injury to a major player, which appeared to be the case in a great spot for San Francisco in Week 14, but that the team can be susceptible to a letdown in the second game after the major player's injury, and we perceive the betting value to reside in taking more than a field goal with a wounded Seattle team that is still fighting for a final playoff spot and nearing the bottom of the market against a rookie quarterback that will be making his first divisional start in a hostile environment.
Pick: Seahawks +3.5
2022 Season ATS: 10-9