The San Francisco 49ers were clicking on all cylinders in a 38-10 throttling of a hapless Arizona Cardinals team in Mexico City on Monday night football. The Niners are again favored by more than a touchdown as they return home on a short week to welcome another bottom-dwelling team in the New Orleans Saints. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday November 27th, 2022 at 1:25pm (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -9; o/u 43
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints handled a reeling Los Angeles Rams team who were without Cooper Kupp and down Matthew Stafford leaving with a concussion. Andy Dalton tossed 3 touchdowns on 21-25 passing for 260 yards and Chris Olave caught 5 passes for 102 yards and a receiving touchdown in a 27-20 victory in Louisiana.
After eleven weeks, New Orleans ranks 22nd in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -8.8 percent, 23rd in total weighted offensive DVOA at -6.5 percent with a 24th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -1.4 percent and 12th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -0.4 percent. The Saints defense is rated 15th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 1.5 percent with a 15th rated defensive pass DVOA at 3.4 percent and 20th rated defensive rush DVOA at -1.8 percent.
Andy Dalton is 18th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 197 and 19th in total QBR at 50.8 with 14 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, 1 fumble lost and a 66.9 completion percentage. New Orleans' offensive line is 9th in run blocking with 4.58 adjusted line yards and 17th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.4 percent. The Saints' defensive line is 19th against the run with 4.47 adjusted line yards and 6th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.7 percent.
The Saints are 4-7 ATS and 6-5 to the over/under. New Orleans are 0-3 ATS after a win and 0-4 ATS as the away team. Defensive ends Marcus Davenport, Cameron Jordan and Payton Turner, linebacker Chase Hansen and defensive back J.T. Gray are questionable, defensive back Marshon Lattimore, linebacker Pete Warner and running back Mark Ingram II are out for Week 12.
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo threw 4 touchdowns on 20-29 passing for 228 yards, George Kittle caught 2 touchdowns on 4 catches for 84 yards, and Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey combined for 135 yards on 19 carries on Monday.
After eleven weeks, San Francisco ranks 6th in weighted total DVOA at 17.4 percent, 8th in weighted offensive DVOA at 10.5 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 30.0 percent and 22nd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -6.8 percent. The 49er defense is rated 8th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -8.0 percent with a 9th rated defensive pass DVOA at -3.9 percent and 3rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -20.8 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 728 and 20th in total QBR at 50.4 with 15 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.3 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 8th in run blocking with 4.62 adjusted line yards and 12th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.5 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.59 adjusted line yards and 9th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.3 percent.
The 49ers are 5-5 ATS and 4-6 to the over/under. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in conference games, 2-1 ATS as a home favorite, 0-3 to the over/under as a home favorite, 1-3 to the over/under as the home team, 2-6 to the over/under as a favorite. Defensive end Samson Ebukam, safety Jimmie Ward and linebacker Dre Greenlaw are questionable, defensive tackle Arik Armstead and tight end Tyler Kroft are out for Week 12.
Prediction
When it first seemed that the Saints would be missing key defensive pieces at the beginning of the week, including Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport and Pete Warner, we initially predicted that New Orleans would not be able to keep pace with San Francisco.
But updated reports indicate that Marshon Lattimore, arguably one of the best defenders on the Saints, will return to practice and Cameron Jordan, who missed his first NFL game last week, is also pushing to play this week, and that Peter Warner's injury is not considered serious.
Sounds like Marshon Lattimore will try to practice this week for the Saints. We'll see where things go after returning from a serious injury.
— John Hendrix (@JohnJHendrix) November 23, 2022
NFL Network reports Cameron Jordan is dealing with an orbital bone fracture, but hopes to play next week's Saints-49ers game: https://t.co/F24DLaRM32
— TheSaintsWire (@TheSaintsWire) November 22, 2022
If New Orleans indeed returns these key players, nine points is too many to lay given Shanahan's track record as a big favorite at Levi's, and San Francisco approaching the top of the market after two prime time wins, and we see this current line as inflated due to the recency bias of the Mexico City massacre on Monday night.
So far in 4 road games, New Orleans has been down 7-16 at halftime at the Falcons in Week 1, 0-13 at halftime at the Panthers in Week 3, 14-28 at halftime at the Cardinals in Week 7 and tied 10-10 at halftime at the Steelers in Week 10, and with Kyle Shanahan holding a coaching advantage and scripting first half plays over Dennis Allen, we foresee a first half advantage for the 49ers.
In 7 losses this season, New Orleans has scored 10, 14, 25, 26, 34, 13 and 10 points and now the Saints will take on the best defense they have faced all season. In 5 wins this season, San Francisco has allowed 7, 9, 15, 14, 16 and 10 points. The Saints team total is set at 16.5 points. Unless the Niners have a letdown, which is a possibility after curbstomping Arizona, if San Francisco wins, do you see New Orleans scoring more than 16 points?
Pick: Saints +9
Bonus pick #1: 49ers (1H) -6.5
Bonus pick #2: Saints team total under 16.5
2022 Season ATS: 4-7