The San Francisco 49ers defense played like the 85 Bears defense and Kyle Shanahan continued his regular season ownership of Sean McVay in another decisive Monday night win over the Los Angeles Rams. Now the Niners are favored by nearly a touchdown as they will travel across the country to take on a struggling Carolina Panthers team. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday October 9th, 2022 at 1:05pm PT (CBS)
- Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
- Line: 49ers -6.5; o/u 39; 49ers team total o/u 22.5; Panthers team total o/u 16.5
Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey caught 9 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown but the rest of the Panthers didn't do much else in their 16-26 loss at home to the Arizona Cardinals. Matt Rhule could be one of the first NFL coaches fired this season and Baker Mayfield threw 2 interceptions, fumbled once and was sacked twice in the losing effort.
After four weeks, Carolina ranks 30th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at -13.1 percent, 31st in offensive DAVE at -12.8 percent with a 31st ranked offensive pass DVOA at -31.3 percent and 16th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -4.4 percent. The Panthers defense is rated 16th in defensive DAVE at 1.0 percent with a 19th rated defensive pass DVOA at 10.0 percent and 10th rated defensive rush DVOA at -14.1 percent.
Baker Mayfield is 31st in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -264 and 32nd in total QBR at 15.3 with 4 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a 54.7 completion percentage. Carolina's offensive line is 8th in run blocking with 4.73 adjusted line yards and 28th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 9.3 percent. The Panthers' defensive line is 16th against the run with 4.46 adjusted line yards and 31st with an adjusted sack rate of 3.9 percent.
The Panthers are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 to the over/under. Safety Jeremy Chinn, receiver Laviska Shenault Jr and cornerback Stantley Thomas-Oliver III are questionable, center Bradley Bozeman is out for the Panthers in Week 5.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers defense sacked Matthew Stafford 7 times, forced a fumble and pick-6 and did not concede a touchdown in a 24-9 drubbing of the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
After four weeks, San Francisco ranks 8th in total DAVE at 6.0 percent, 20th in offensive DAVE at -2.2 percent with a 16th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 12.0 percent and 24th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -16.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 2nd in defensive DAVE at -10.0 percent with a 4th rated defensive pass DVOA at -26.7 percent and 1st rated defensive rush DVOA at -33.3 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 14th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 155 and 27th in total QBR at 33.2 with 3 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a 61.8 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 21st in run blocking with 4.09 adjusted line yards and 15th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.3 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 1st against the run with 3.32 adjusted line yards and 3rd with an adjusted sack rate of 10.0 percent.
The 49ers are 2-2 ATS and 0-4 to the over/under. Receiver Jajuan Jennings, receiver Danny Gray, safety Tarvarious Moore, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw and defensive tackle Arik Armstead are questionable, offensive tackles Colton McKivitz and Trent Williams are out for the 49ers in Week 5.
Prediction
This week's handicap will not be too complicated. Yes, the 49ers looked like a contender and the Panthers appeared to be one of the worst teams in the NFL last week, which may have led to an inflated line that was 49ers -3 two weeks ago and has been hammered all the way to nearly a touchdown; and some sharp bettors might see this as too many points to lay for a team coming off of a short week and traveling across the country, but Matt Rhule might be one of the worst coaches, Baker Mayfield is playing like one of the worst quarterbacks and the Panthers offense is one of the most anemic in the NFL.
McCaffrey is Carolina's lone productive offensive player but last week managed only 27 yards on 8 carries and now will face the top rushing defense in the league. A putrid Panther offense going up against a championship caliber 49ers defense is a recipe for domination, and we have a difficult time seeing Carolina putting up a lot of points or keeping it close.
Pick: Panthers team total under 16.5 (-120)
2022 Season ATS: 3-2