The San Francisco 49ers offense was impotent, even more so after losing tackle Trent Williams, before losing by a point at the Denver Broncos in Week 3. Will Kyle Shanahan bounce back and continue his regular season dominance over Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4 under the bright lights of Monday Night Football? Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Monday October 3rd, 2022 at 5:15pm PT (ESPN)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -1.5, o/u 42.5
Los Angeles Rams
After getting steamrolled by the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, the Los Angeles Rams have won two straight, most recently a 20-12 win in the desert over the Arizona Cardinals in a game that was never as close as the final score might indicate.
After three weeks, Los Angeles ranks 8th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at 5.4 percent, 18th in offensive DVOA at -6.1 percent with a 16th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 5.2 percent and 14th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -3.2 percent. The Rams defense is rated 16th in defensive DAVE at -0.3 percent with a 22nd rated defensive pass DVOA at 16.4 percent and 4th rated defensive rush DVOA at -30.6 percent.
Matthew Stafford is 20th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 49 and 13th in total QBR at 51.1 with 4 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions and a 72.6 completion percentage. LA's offensive line is 22nd in run blocking with 4.15 adjusted line yards and 25th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 8.5 percent. The Rams' defensive line is 10th against the run with 4.17 adjusted line yards and 21st with an adjusted sack rate of 6.1 percent.
The Rams have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 3.2 and are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 to the over/under. Among Rams starters, center Brian Allen is out, guard Tremayne Anchrum has been placed on IR and cornerback David Long Jr. is questionable for Week 4.
San Francisco 49ers
Another week and another quarterback controversy for the San Francisco 49ers, as armchair NFL analysts were quick to rage on Jimmy Garoppolo for stepping out of bounds for a safety, for missing Deebo Samuel on a wide-open go route, for complaining about plays during the game and for smiling at a former teammate after the game in San Francisco's 10-11 loss, declaring with unequivocal confidence that Trey Lance would have beaten the Denver Broncos at Mile High.
After three weeks, San Francisco ranks 10th in total DAVE at 8.4 percent, 23rd in offensive DVOA at -12.0 percent with a 19th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 3.9 percent and 20th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -16.2 percent. The 49er defense is rated 3rd in defensive DVOA at -28.5 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -24.7 percent and 3rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -32.6 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 18th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 84 and 29th in total QBR at 28.9 with 2 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a 62.0 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 21st in run blocking with 4.20 adjusted line yards and 23rd in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 8.0 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.36 adjusted line yards and 3rd with an adjusted sack rate of 10.2 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of -1.2 and are 1-2 ATS and 0-3 to the over/under. Among 49ers starters, center Daniel Brunskill is out, tackle Trent Williams is out, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is out, Jimmie Ward remains on IR and defensive tackle Arik Armstead is questionable for Week 4.
Prediction
Prior to losing 17-20 in the NFC championship game last season, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers had won six straight against the Rams. The Niners have covered 6 of the last 7 times these two teams have met, going 2-5 to the over/under during that span. So based on these trends, can we anticipate another 49ers win against their division rivals from Los Angeles this Monday night, just like the last Monday night game between these squads at Levi's?
Aside from its performance against a hapless Seattle Seahawks defense, San Francisco's offense has appeared to be stagnant, lacking a consistent running game and explosive plays. Now the offense will lose one of its best players in Trent Williams and it's hard to fathom how the running game gets back on track or have a higher frequency of explosive plays without him.
Similarly, the Los Angeles Rams' offensive line has been riddled with injuries and vulnerable, with Matthew Stafford being sacked 9 times and throwing 5 interceptions so far this season. Besides its output against a bottom-tier defense in Atlanta, the Rams offense only mustered 10 points against Buffalo and 20 points against the 31st ranked defense in Arizona.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco's defense is playing like one of the best units in the NFL and Los Angeles' defense is performing at a higher level than its offense right now, with both teams ranking in the top four in rushing defense DVOA.
Last week we noted that both teams featured strong defenses and had gone under in all of their games but were scared off betting the under due to steam, but we will not overthink things this week. With both teams playing with shaky offensive lines and weak rushing attacks, stronger defenses in a divisional game and combining to go 1-5 to the over/under so far this season, and prime time unders continuing to cash, we are going with the under in Week 4. This line opened between 46 to 48 and has been getting smashed all the way down to 41.5 at some books, but there are still a 42 and 42.5 available.
Pick: Under 42.5
2022 season ATS: 2-2
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