The San Francisco 49ers might blame the torrential downpour, defensive lapses and untimely penalties for their 10-19 loss in Week 1 at the Chicago Bears. but there will be little room for excuses when the Niners host the Seattle Seahawks in this season's first game at Levi's with San Francisco favored by as many as 10 points at some sportsbooks. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday September 18th, 2022 at 1:05 PM PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -9 to -10; o/u 42
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks threw shade at, and the 12th man booed Russell Wilson in his first game playing against his old team, while Seattle grinded its way to an emotional, 17-16 win against the Denver Broncos in Week 1 as 6.5 point underdogs.
Geno Smith went 23 of 28 for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns, Rashaad Penny had 60 rushing yards on 12 carries and both Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson had 43 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
Seattle's defense held a couple of gritty goal line stands that resulted in fumbles and zero points, sacked Russell Wilson twice and hit him 8 times, but allowed him to pass for 340 yards and Denver's offense to total 433 compared to Seattle's 253 total yards.
Safety Jamal Adams is out, running back Kenneth Walker III is probable and guard Damian Lewis is questionable for Week 2.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers jumped out to a ten point lead but fell apart after that, allowing 19 unanswered points to Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears in a game they had been favored by a touchdown.
Trey Lance went 13 of 28 for 164 yards and an interception while rushing for 54 yards on 13 carries. Jauan Jennings led the team with 4 receptions and 62 receiving yards. Deebo Samuel scored San Francisco's lone touchdown and he also lost a fumble.
Talanoa Hufanga had a break out game with 9 solo tackles, 2 tackles-for-loss, an interception and a pass deflected, and Nick Bosa and Samson Ebukam each had a sack and a tackle-for-loss. The 49ers defense only allowed a total of 204 yards, compared to 331 tallied by San Francisco's offense, but the team was penalized 12 times for 99 yards, a few to extend drives.
Running back Elijah Mitchell has been placed on I-R, tight end George Kittle is questionable and safety Jimmie Ward has been placed on I-R for Week 2.
Prediction
Though having Kittle would make a difference for the 49ers, our handicap this week will have nothing to do with X's and O's or personnel but rather fundamental betting strategy.
No team is as bad as they appeared in its worst week and no team is as good as they might have appeared in its best. Seahawks are coming off of a hugely emotional win under the bright lights of prime time, a game they had circled due to Russell Wilson's return, and weren't too shy to show they had feelings about the win afterward. After playing Monday night in that atmosphere, they are due for a letdown on this shorter week.
Good morning Seahawks fam. Lets ride. pic.twitter.com/qDLoOo4pMx
— Sami Jarjour (@SamiOnTap) September 13, 2022
In contrast, the 49ers looked unprepared and undisciplined at Chicago, losing outright as touchdown favorites and sparking speculation already about a possible quarterback controversy due to San Francisco's inability to generate significant offense.
But with San Francisco looking like it was laughable to consider them a Super Bowl contender during their Soldier Field implosion and Seattle upsetting Russell Wilson and a talented Broncos team at Lumen Field, regression to the mean suggests that the 49ers are due for a bounce-back and that the Seahawks are due for a letdown.
As bad as San Francisco looked in Week 1 and as competitive as Seattle looked, double digits seems like too many to lay and the sports book seems to just be begging bettors to take the points with Seattle, which is why we will lay the points with San Francisco. The spread ranges from 9 to 10 points depending on the book, and we locked it in at -9.5.
Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense put up zero points in the second half of Week 1 and we expect them to have a hard time generating points against an embarrassed 49ers defense.
The jury is still out on how much Kyle Shanahan trusts his current starting quarterback and we anticipate a conservative game plan, even more so if Kittle is out and with questions at the running back position, causing us to lean toward the under in this match up.
Pick: 49ers -9.5
Bonus Pick: Under 42
2022 Season ATS:
0-1
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