The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2022 season with a talented roster and high expectations that find them as a touchdown favorite at the rebuilding Chicago Bears in Week 1. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday September 11th, 2022 at 10:00am PT (FOX)
- Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
- Lines: 49ers -7, o/u 41, 49ers team total o/u: 23.5, Bears team total o/u: 17.5
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears cleaned house after their 6-11, 2021 campaign, replacing general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy with Ryan Poles and former Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, respectively. Chicago's new offensive and defensive coordinators are Luke Getsy and Alan Williams, and the roster has been cleaned out as well, as only 19 of the 77 players Poles inherited from Pace are on the current 53-man roster.
The Bears' success will depend on how well Justin Fields performs and develops entering his second season. Fields will have Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet as his primary receiving targets, while David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert will be coming out of the backfield. Chicago has a young and possibly vulnerable offensive line, finishing 2021 ranked 32nd in pass protection, and the Bears claiming first-round bust Alex Leatherwood off of waivers to shore up their protection does not bode well for that unit.
Eberflus is a defensive-minded coach who will have LB Roquan Smith anchoring his defense, and Robert Quinn and Trevis Gipson generating a pass rush. However, the departure of Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, and Eddie Goldman raises questions about the current defensive talent, which may have led to their choosing defensive backs Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker with their first two picks in the 2022 draft.
San Francisco 49ers
For a team that mortgaged its future to move up to the third pick in the 2021 draft, the time is now for the QB they drafted with that pick, Trey Lance, as the San Francisco 49ers try and make a run for the team's sixth Super Bowl title. Kyle Shanahan lost offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, along with a handful of solid offensive position coaches, but will have on paper one of the more talented rosters in the league.
If Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Trent Williams, and Elijah Mitchell can stay healthy, and yes that is a gargantuan 'if', Trey Lance will have one of the more potent offenses, especially when factoring in the improving Brandon Aiyuk and consistent Kyle Juszczyk as well. Starting guard Laken Tomlinson and center Alex Mack are gone, and right tackle Mike McGlinchey is returning from injury, which means the success of the offense, and Lance's health, may hinge upon how the offensive line performs.
The 2021 49ers had a league-high 21 pass interference penalties with its secondary being the most glaring vulnerability on a defense that finished fifth in weighted defensive defense-adjusted-value-over-average (DVOA), making it no surprise that San Francisco's biggest free-agent contract went to form Chiefs starting cornerback Charvarius Ward, who will join Emmanuel Moseley, Ambry Thomas, and a still-rehabbing Jason Verrett in the defensive backfield. However, with former-starting SS Jaquiski Tartt gone and FS Jimmie Ward nursing a hamstring injury, uncertainty remains in the 49ers' secondary, even though S Tashaun Gipson was signed to help.
San Francisco will hope a dominant pass rush can make up for vulnerabilities in the back-end, drafting edge rusher Drake Jackson to join Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw on the defensive line, and the 49ers feature one of the league's best linebacking corps with Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Azeez Al-Shaair.
Prediction
On paper, this matchup pits one of the most talented rosters against one of the most depleted rosters in the league and it should be San Francisco's game to lose. Gun to our head, if we were forced to pick a side we would lay the points with San Francisco, but a whole touchdown on the road to a defensive-minded team with a new coach seems like a bit much.
Kyle Shanahan may play it close to the vest with Trey Lance in his first season-opening start but once he gets the run game going, he will find ways to put up points against a young defense that has had a lot of turnover, having put up 33 at Soldier Field last season with former starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo against an arguably better Bears' defense. Fields' potential for a big play or two, along with remaining questions about the 49ers' secondary, make us lean toward the over on this very low total, but a lack of confidence in the Bears' offense leads us to feel most comfortable with San Francisco's team total.
Pick: 49ers team total over 23.5 (-130)
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