The 49ers have made it clear they plan on eventually attempting to work out a contract extension to defensive end Nick Bosa, but what remains to be seen is exactly how much that extension will cost.
Bosa has one more year plus an option year on his rookie deal and is eligible for his first extension this offseason. Many 49ers fans are already aware that a new deal for Bosa will make him among the highest-paid defensive players in the league, and they can also get an idea of what the specifics of the deal may look like, thanks to a recent article from CBS Sports analyst and former player agent Joel Corry that breaks down possible details and dollar amounts.
Corry expects Bosa's agent, Brian Ayrault, to drive a hard bargain and pursue a deal that will set new contract standards for a non-quarterback. Among the parameters Corry says to keep in mind are the current high marks for average yearly salary ($28,002,750; T.J. Watt, Steelers), overall contract guarantees ($102 million; Joey Bosa, Chargers), fully guaranteed money at signing ($80 million; T.J. Watt), signing bonus ($40 million; Aaron Donald, Rams), and three-year cash flow ($80,593,471; Watt). Given the fact that two of the players on that list are also Ayrault clients (Donald and Joey Bosa) whose previous deals set new benchmarks, Corry says Bosa's extension can expected to do the same.
"It's hard to imagine Ayrault agreeing to any deal that doesn't make Nick Bosa the NFL's highest-paid non-quarterback with record-setting guarantees and a player-friendly structure given his track record with Donald and Joey Bosa," Corry wrote in a piece published on Friday.
The exact numbers will depend in part on when the deal is signed. By using guidelines such as the salary increases Ayrault got for Donald and Bosa, the length of the recent deal the 49ers gave to linebacker Fred Warner (five years), and a possible timing similar to the recent agreement between Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (two weeks before 2020 training camp), Corry came up with a contract estimate of $30.5 million per year over five years with $110 million in guarantees and $85 million fully guaranteed. Those numbers could jump if the 49ers choose to wait until next year to give Bosa a deal, but chances are they'll want to make a move before then.
"The 49ers are proactive in signing core players to extensions before free agency becomes a consideration," wrote Corry. "Waiting until 2023 to reward Bosa will likely be more costly for the 49ers."
One other factor to keep an eye on down the road is the possibility of a holdout, or maybe a "hold-in," where a player shows up to camp but doesn't participate in all activities (similar to what T.J. Watt did in August). Donald and Joey Bosa went through holdouts of their own in the past, while negotiations for Nick's rookie contract came down to the wire.
"The potential for a Bosa holdout if there is a contract stalemate can't be dismissed," wrote Corry. "Bosa might not want to play any longer than required before a big payday because of the ACL tear that sidelined him for almost all of the 2020 season."
As Corry's article spells out, there are a number of details the 49ers and Ayrault will need to hammer out in the months ahead if a deal is to be struck before the start of the season. But the 49ers will have some long-term financial flexibility in their favor due in part to their quarterback of the future (Trey Lance) being on a rookie contract, and they clearly want to get something done, based on what general manager John Lynch told reporters on February 1 when discussing the futures of Bosa and wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
"With (Samuel) and Nick, we fully understand these guys are pillars of what we're trying to do here," Lynch said. "We've been blessed that we've been aggressive, because we've had a lot of players that we believe are some of the best in the league at what they do. And these guys are no different. And so we have really good lines of communication with their representatives. Those will continue. I'm not going to put any timelines on it, but obviously, planning has been done to account for those guys."
