The San Francisco 49ers saved their best for last, exhibiting the poise and resilience befitting of a playoff contender in their exhilarating, come-from-behind, overtime win in the Week 18 regular season finale on the road to clinch the six seed in the NFC playoffs. The Niners will now rekindle an old post-season rivalry when they travel to the 'Big D' to face the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday, January 16th, 2022 at 1:30 pm PT (CBS)
- Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- Line: 49ers +3, over/under 51
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys finished the regular season 12-5 after a 51-26 drubbing of a Philadelphia Eagles team that was resting starters in Week 18.
After the regular season, Dallas ranks 1st in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 34.8 percent, 6th in offensive DVOA at 13.4 percent with an 6th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 31.7 percent and 13th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -4.0 percent. The Cowboys defense is rated 2nd in defensive DVOA at -15.2 percent with a 2nd rated defensive pass DVOA at -20.5 percent and 16th rated defensive rush DVOA at -7.1 percent.
Dak Prescott is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 1,379 and 9th in total QBR at 54.9 with 37 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost and a 68.8 completion percentage.
Dallas' offensive line is 2nd in run blocking with 4.80 adjusted line yards and 9th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 5.6 percent. The Cowboys' defensive line is 13th against the run with 4.17 adjusted line yards and 12th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.9 percent.
The Cowboys have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 6.0 and are 13-4 ATS and 8-9 to the over/under.
Micah Parsons and Tyron Smith have been added to the COVID list, Trevon Diggs is questionable and Tony Pollard is probable for the Wild Card game.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers overcame a 0-17 deficit and a couple of interceptions by Jimmy Garoppolo to pull off a stunning 27-24 win, their sixth straight against the Rams, to finish the season with a 10-7 record.
San Francisco ranks 5th in total weighted DVOA at 24.8 percent, 5th in offensive DVOA at 14.9 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 33.2.percent and 5th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 6.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 7th in defensive DVOA at -7.0 percent with a 16th rated defensive pass DVOA at 5.8 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -24.8 percent.
Jimmy Garropolo is 10th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 855 and 14th in total QBR at 52.6 with 20 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 68.9 completion percentage.
San Francisco's offensive line is 11th in run blocking with 4.40 adjusted line yards and 17th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.6 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.56 adjusted line yards and 5th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.0 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 3.7 and are 9-8 ATS and 8-9 to the over/under.
Azeez Al-Shaair, Justin Skule and Maurice Hurst are currently listed as out, Trent Williams and Marcel Harris are listed as questionable for the Wild Card game.
Prediction
The Dallas Cowboys rank first in total efficiency, are division champions and have been covering machines this season, going 13-4 ATS, covering five of their last six games, and are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their last three contests against San Francisco. The Cowboys are America's team and will be playing at home so why are they only favored by a field goal against a Niners team that squeaked into the playoffs by the hairs of their chinny-chin-chin?
After starting out the season 7-0 ATS, Dallas hit a rough patch where they only won and covered a single game out of four, against the lowly Atlanta Falcons, and the five they covered in their last six games were against Washington twice, the New York Giants, the New Orleans Saints and an Eagles team that was resting its starters. Though Dallas has a stout defense, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense have regressed in the latter part of the season during a time San Francisco has been getting more efficient and healthy.
The Cowboys are a solid team with the kind of defense that can win a championship, but they are also a team that started out strong against lesser competition and have since become less efficient, and as a very public team could be trending toward being overvalued by the market.
In contrast, San Francisco is a team that started out 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread with a quarterback that has been ripped to shreds and criticized on a regular basis by media and its fanbase alike, which may contribue to the Niners still being undervalued by the market, even after the spectacular win in Week 18.
Kyle Shanahan said the 49ers would manage Elijah Mitchell's practice reps like they did last week. He expected K'Waun Williams to resume practicing Wednesday & is optimistic Jaquiski Tartt (groin), Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) & Marcell Harris (Achilles) will practice this week, too.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) January 11, 2022
The 49ers are getting healthy at the optimal time and have gone 7-2 straight up and against the spread, including three wins over division champions, in the second half of the season.
Ambry Thomas continues to improve each and every game and both he and Emmanuel Mosely tallied an interception last week, indicating that San Francisco's maligned secondary may be rounding into competitive form and putting the Niners in position to limit a Cowboys offense that has become less effective recently.
While Dallas' defense is stout its weakness is against the run and if Elijah Mitchell is healthy and Kyle Shanahan's play-calling can get the run game going in this contest, we anticipate a 49ers victory and see the value in taking the points with a San Francisco team that has been better on the road and as an underdog this season.
Pick: 49ers +3
2021 Season ATS: 9-8