Despite a shaky first quarter from its rookie quarterback, the San Francisco 49ers pulled off the win and covered 13.5 points in Trey Lance's first start at Levi's Stadium and will now travel to face a divisional foe in the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18 to solidify a playoff berth. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday, January 9nd, 2021 at 1:25 pm PT (FOX)
- Where: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California
- Line: 49ers +4.5, over/under 44.5
Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams overcame two interceptions from Matthew Stafford, including another pick-six, to secure a 20-19 win at the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.
After seventeen weeks, Los Angeles ranks 8th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 22.7 percent, 6th in offensive DVOA at 11.2 percent with an 8th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 26.0 percent and 12th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -1.8 percent. The Rams defense is rated 5th in defensive DVOA at -9.6 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -2.3 percent and 4th rated defensive rush DVOA at -19.7 percent.
Matthew Stafford is 6th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 1,043 and 4th in total QBR at 63.5 with 38 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.3 completion percentage. LA's offensive line is 1st in run blocking with 4.82 adjusted line yards and 6th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 4.9 percent. The Rams' defensive line is 3rd against the run with 3.76 adjusted line yards and 7th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.5 percent.
The Rams have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 5.7 and are 8-8 ATS and 8-7-1 to the over/under.
Cam Akers is probable and Nick Scott is questionable for Week 18.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners defense was effective in limiting Davis Mills and the Houston Texans offense, Elijah Mitchell returned with 119 yards rushing and Trey Lance overcame an interception and nerves to help guide San Francisco to a 23-7 win in Week 17.
San Francisco ranks 9th in total weighted DVOA at 20.6 percent, 5th in offensive DVOA at 14.2 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 32.6.percent and 5th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 5.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 8th in defensive DVOA at -5.8 percent with a 18th rated defensive pass DVOA at 6.3 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -22.7 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 10th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 812 and 12th in total QBR at 53.6 with 19 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 68.5 completion percentage. In Week 17, Trey Lance threw for 249 yards with 2 touchdowns, 1 interception and had 31 yards rushing on 8 carries. San Francisco's offensive line is 13th in run blocking with 4.38 adjusted line yards and 18th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.5 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 3rd against the run with 3.65 adjusted line yards and 6th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.6 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.3 and are 8-8 ATS and 7-9 to the over/under.
Dontae Johnson and K'waun Williams have been added to the COVID list, Emmanuel Mosely and Dre Greenlaw remain out but reports indicate that they have a chance to play, Maurice Hurst is out, Jimmy Garoppolo and Talanoa Hufanga are questionable for Week 18.
#49ers Kyle Shanahan said CB Emmanuel Moseley and LB Dre Greenlaw "have a chance" to play this week against Rams.
Also, still time for CBs Dontae Johnson and K'Waun Williams to return from COVID list before Sunday if they follow similar track to Mitch Wishnowsky last week.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) January 3, 2022
Prediction
The 49ers have won five straight against the Rams, including four of the last five contests between these two teams in Los Angeles both straight up and against the spread. Los Angeles has clinched a playoff birth but will be motivated to try and win the NFC West division title, while San Francisco will be playing for their playoff lives.
Though Trey Lance's inexperience was evident early against a decent Texans pass defense, he showed improved decision making during the course of the game and we expect him to continue to get more comfortable with the speed of the NFL with more experience, though he will be challenged by a very good Rams defense in Week 18 if he gets the start.
San Francisco's secondary continues to be a significant liability, but Ambry Thomas continues to show improvement and Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing offense has regressed since the last time these two teams played, and we can only side with taking the points with San Francisco. When the line opened at 49ers +6.5, we felt it was almost too good to be true and indeed the line has been bet down all the way to +4 at some books, and we would not surprised if it closes closer to a field goal by kick-off.
While Stafford and the Rams passing offense has become less efficient, both teams have shown improvement in run defense since their last meeting and we anticipate a tight, playoff atmosphere where points might come at a premium and also lean toward the under but see the most value in taking the points.
Pick: 49ers +4.5
2021 Season ATS: 8-8