The San Francisco 49ers refused to lose, orchestrating a successful game-deciding drive on the road in Week 14 after having one come up short the week before, displaying poise in what could be described as their most resilient win so far this season. The Niners have not covered seven or more points at Levi's since 2019 and will try not to get caught looking past an Atlanta Falcons team that is 5-2 on the road. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday, December 19th, 2021 at 1:05 pm PT (CBS)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, San Francisco, California
- Line: 49ers -9, over/under 45.5
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons (6-7) have won two of their last three contests, coming off of a convincing 29-21 win over the Carolina Panthers as 2.5 point underdogs in a game where Cam Newton was benched for P.J. Walker.
After fourteen weeks, Atlanta ranks 31st in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -33.0 percent, 29th in offensive DVOA at -18.5 percent with a 25th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -1.5 percent and 31st ranked offensive rush DVOA at -31.5 percent. The Falcons defense is rated 30th in defensive DVOA at 10.9 percent with a 29th rated defensive pass DVOA at 22.7 percent and 23rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -5.2 percent.
Matt Ryan is 20th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 234 and 18th in total QBR at 49.2 with 17 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 1 fumble lost and a 68.7 completion percentage. Atlanta's offensive line is 26th in run blocking with 4.03 adjusted line yards and 12th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.0 percent. The Falcons' defensive line is 20th against the run with 4.43 adjusted line yards and 32nd with an adjusted sack rate of 4.4 percent.
The Falcons have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of -4.5 and are 6-7 ATS and 6-7 to the over/under.
Erik Harris is out, Jonathan Bullard, Richie Grant and Adetokunbo Ogundeji are questionable for Week 15.
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo narrowly avoided losing a fumble where he wasn't touched, and a late 4th quarter interception to help overcome the Niners squandering a 20-6 lead in the 4th quarter, going 6 for 6 on the game-winning drive in overtime, including the touchdown strike to Brandon Aiyuk for the win. George Kittle tallied another dominant receiving performance with 13 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown.
We're still thinking about how @gkittle46 caught this. pic.twitter.com/GzYDSh1L0v
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 13, 2021
San Francisco ranks 8th in total weighted DVOA at 18.0 percent, 6th in offensive DVOA at 12.7 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 30.8.percent and 5th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 3.3 percent. The 49er defense is rated 8th in defensive DVOA at -3.5 percent with a 21st rated defensive pass DVOA at 9.1 percent and 3rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -21.4 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 10th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 634 and 13th in total QBR at 54.1 with 17 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 67.2 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 19th in run blocking with 4.19 adjusted line yards and 20th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.8 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 3rd against the run with 3.59 adjusted line yards and 12th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.0 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.6 and are 6-7 ATS and 7-6 to the over/under.
Emmanuel Moseley joined Trey Sermon and Dee Ford on IR, Maurice Hurst is out, Dontae Johnson, Azeez Al-Shaair, Elijah Mitchell, Ambry Thomas, Trent Cannon and Dre Greenlaw are questionable for Week 15.
Prediction
The last time the 49ers were laying more than a touchdown to the Falcons at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco lost straight up 22-29 as ten point favorites. While it's true those were different teams, one might argue that the Niners were a better team that made the Super Bowl that season and that Atlanta was not much worse than they are now, having finished 7-9 in 2019.
Though we expect San Francisco to win the game, we have yet to see the 49ers display consistency as big home favorites and do not feel comfortable laying nine points in the first game back at Levi's after two games on the road to an Atlanta team that is 5-2 ATS away from Mercedes Benz Stadium this season.
The final scores have finished over the total the last two times these teams have played, Atlanta is 3-2 to the over/under as the away team this season and San Francisco is 4-1 to the over/under as home favorites, 4-2 to the over/under after a win.
San Francisco should have no problems scoring against the Falcons, and with Mosely out, Al-Shaair, Ambry Thomas, Dontae Johnson questionable and Josh Norman continuing to be a liability, the Niners secondary continues to slide in efficiency and will likely be vulnerable to getting scored upon as well in a game where we anticipate points.
Pick: Over 45.5
2021 Season ATS: 7-6