The San Francisco 49ers winning and covering three consecutive games for the first time since 2019 not only put them in playoff position but back into the discussion for the division title, but the Niners will be without Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner when they travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in Week 13. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday, December 5th, 2021 at 1:25 pm PT (CBS)
- Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
- Line: 49ers -3, over/under 46
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks appear to be approaching the end of an era and an impending separation from Russell Wilson after their third straight loss and sixth loss in their last seven games after a 15-17 defeat to the Washington Football Team.
After twelve weeks, Seattle ranks 17th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -0.5 percent, 14th in offensive DVOA at 4.2 percent with a 14th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 20.0 percent and 18th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.3 percent. The Seahawks defense is rated 22nd in defensive DVOA at 3.7 percent with a 27th rated defensive pass DVOA at 17.1 percent and 11th rated defensive rush DVOA at -12.9 percent.
Russell Wilson is 17th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 239 and 23rd in total QBR at 46.2 with 12 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a 64.9 completion percentage. Seattle's offensive line is 25th in run blocking with 4.00 adjusted line yards and 31st in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 9.8 percent. The Seahawks' defensive line is 13th against the run with 4.22 adjusted line yards and 29th with an adjusted sack rate of 4.9 percent.
The Seahawks have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 0.4 and are 5-6 ATS and 1-9-1 to the over/under.
Nigel Warrior, Travis Homer, Rashaad Penny, Damien Lewis and Geno Smith are questionable for Week 13.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners won consecutive games at Levi's for the first time since 2019 behind Elijah Mitchell's 133 rushing yards and a touchdown on 27 carries, beating the Minnesota Vikings by the score of 34-26 in Week 12, but the offense will be without its most dominant player in Deebo Samuel for 1-2 weeks starting in Week 13.
San Francisco ranks 6th in total weighted DVOA at 16.8 percent, 3rd in offensive DVOA at 14.1 percent with a 4th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 33.5.percent and 7th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 2.1 percent. The 49er defense is rated 10th in defensive DVOA at -1.3 percent with a 22nd rated defensive pass DVOA at 13.2 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -21.7 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 10th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 564 and 7th in total QBR at 58.6 with 13 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 67.5 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 20th in run blocking with 4.16 adjusted line yards and 18th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.4 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.56 adjusted line yards and 15th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.6 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.6 and are 5-6 ATS and 6-5 to the over/under.
Jajuan Jennings, Fred Warner, Deebo Samuel and Maurice Hurst are out, Trey Sermon, JaMycal Hasty and Dre Greenlaw are questionable for Week 13.
Prediction
The look-ahead line for this game was 49ers +1.5 and some handicappers might argue that Seattle is at an all-time buy-low spot and that the line moving to 49ers -3 and -3.5 at some books is an overreaction rife with recency bias, and that all the betting value now resides on taking the points with the home team who historically finds a way to get up for this rivalry.
But even with Warner and Samuel out, we are hesitant to trust a Seattle offense that is coming off of a short week and has been in a free fall since the last time these teams met, with Russell Wilson not appearing to be his normal self since he returned from finger surgery in Week 10. And with the Niners having more success on the road than at home this season, being 3-1 ATS as an away favorite, we could only side with laying the points with San Francisco.
But the reason we are going with the total as our best bet in this contest is because of the absence of Deebo Samuel, who has been the catalyst, MVP and highest point scorer for San Francisco's offense. Without Deebo's acumen and versatility both catching and running the ball, the 49ers offense will not be as potent and we anticipate that Kyle Shanahan might try to adjust for this deficiency with an even more than usual run-heavy game plan. Yes, missing Fred Warner will have an adverse effect on San Francisco's defense but we don't see Warner's absence to be as impactful as Samuel's.
Seattle is 1-9-1 to the over/under, 0-6-1 to the over/under after a loss, 0-4-1 to the over/under as an underdog, 0-2 to the over/under as a home underdog, 0-7-0 to the over/under in conference games, 0-3-0 to the over/under in division games and 0-2-0 to the over/under with a rest disadvantage. The 49ers are 1-3 to the over/under in division games, 2-3 to the over/under as the away team and without Samuel we do not expect a lot of points being scored on Sunday.
This total opened at 46 but has been bet down to 45.5 and now 45 at some books, so those planning to back the under might consider taking it sooner rather than later and those who might want to take the over can likely wait for a better number.
Pick: Under 46
2021 Season ATS: 5-4