The San Francisco 49ers won consecutive games for the first time since Week 2 and will attempt to win consecutive games at home for the first time since 2019 when they host the surging Minnesota Vikings in a Week 12 contest with significant implications for a potential playoff berth. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday, November 28th, 2021 at 1:25 pm PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -3, over/under 48
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 34-31 as one point underdogs for their second straight win as an underdog and third straight against-the-spread (ATS) cover.
After eleven weeks, Minnesota ranks 9th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 14.9 percent, 12th in offensive DVOA at 6.5 percent with a 4th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 36.4 percent and 29th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -22.8 percent. The Vikings defense is rated 8th in defensive DVOA at -5.5 percent with a 6th rated defensive pass DVOA at -7.4 percent and 28th rated defensive rush DVOA at -2.9 percent.
Kirk Cousins is 6th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 687 and 12th in total QBR at 57.0 with 18 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble lost and a 69.2 completion percentage. Minnesota's offensive line is 26th in run blocking with 3.92 adjusted line yards and 2nd in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 3.8 percent. The Vikings' defensive line is 32nd against the run with 4.94 adjusted line yards and 4th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.7 percent.
The Vikings have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 1.4 and are 6-3 ATS and 5-5 to the over/under. Minnesota has covered three straight and are 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Josh Metellus, Danielle Hunter and Michael Pierce are out, Wyatt Davis is questionable for Week 12.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners moved to 4-1 on the road this season with a dominating, 30-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Florida. The defense forced and recovered two fumbles, sacked Trevor Lawrence three times while holding him to 158 yards passing and limited the Jaguars to 54 total rushing yards. Jimmy Garoppolo was efficient in throwing for two touchdowns, including one to Brandon Aiyuk who caught all seven of his targets for 85 yards, with zero turnovers and the offense rushed for 171 total yards
San Francisco ranks 6th in total weighted DVOA at 18.5 percent, 3rd in offensive DVOA at 15.0 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 34.7.percent and 7th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 1.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 13th in defensive DVOA at -0.6 percent with a 20th rated defensive pass DVOA at 13.5 percent and 5th rated defensive rush DVOA at -19.9 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 9th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 470 and 11th in total QBR at 57.1 with 10 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 67.3 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 23rd in run blocking with 4.05 adjusted line yards and 16th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.2 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.61 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.8 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.3 and are 4-6 ATS and 5-5 to the over/under.
Maurice Hurst is out, Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty are questionable for Week 12.
Prediction
Both the 49ers and Vikings started out slow, both are 5-5 and both are starting to play better and have strung together two consecutive wins, but one team's momentum will be halted in a game that will move the other team realistically closer to a playoff spot.
The look ahead line for this game prior to the season starting was 49ers -7 and some handicappers might consider the current line an overreaction and find value on the San Francisco side. Does this line movement reflect that the 49ers are not as good as expected or that the Vikings are better than predicted? Maybe it's a little bit of both because if "you are what your record says you are", as Bill Parcells once postulated, these are two fairly evenly matched teams.
The Vikings are 5-0 ATS as an underdog, 3-0 ATS as an away underdog, the Niners are 0-4 ATS as a home favorite, 1-4 ATS at home this season. Minnesota is 4-1 to the over/under as the away team, 2-1 to the over/under as an away underdog, San Francisco is 3-1 to the over/under as a home favorite, 4-2 to the over/under in non-division games, 5-3 to the over/under as a favorite, 3-2 to the over/under as the home team after 11 Weeks.
Trends would suggest suggest taking the points with the Vikings and going over the total in this matchup. After three consecutive weeks of quality quarterback play from Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel playing like the best wide receiver in the league every week and Brandon Aiyuk finally emerging, San Francisco's offense seems to be rounding into form and we would be hesitant to fade them at this point, especially with Danielle Hunter and Michael Pierce out for the Vikings defense.
The final scores have finished under the total in four straight and seven of the last eight times these teams have faced each other but with both offenses starting to fire on all cylinders and the Vikings defense a sieve on the road and the Niners defense having yet to prove they can stop a team other than the Rams at home since 2020, we are anticipating points in a possible shootout between these teams in Week 12. The Vikings defense is susceptible to the run and Kyle Shanahan's offensive potency is predicated off the run game, and Kirk Cousins will be playing on the road and not during prime team in an offense that ranks fourth in passing offense going against the weakness of the 49ers defense, further supporting our position on this game finishing over the posted total.
Pick: Over 48
2021 record ATS: 5-5
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