The San Francisco 49ers finally got back into the win column with a convincing 33-22 win at Chicago in Week 8 but have no time to pat themselves on the back as they are still winless at home this season and will be hosting the 7-1 Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium in Week 9. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday, November 9th, 2021 at 1:25 pm PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers +1, over/under 45
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals sustained their first blemish of the season in a 21-24 home loss to the depleted Green Bay Packers, and questions about Kyler Murray's health continue to cast a shadow on the team after J.J. Watt has been ruled out for the rest of the season.
After eight weeks, Arizona ranks 2nd in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 31.8 percent, 10th in offensive DVOA at 8.1 percent with a 4th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 38.5 percent and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -13.9 percent. The Cardinals defense is rated 2nd in defensive DVOA at -6.8 percent with a 2nd rated defensive pass DVOA at -23.0 percent and 9th rated defensive rush DVOA at -19.8 percent.
Kyler Murray is 4th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 607 and 5th in total QBR at 63.0 with 17 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, and a 72.7 completion percentage. Arizona's offensive line is 16th in run blocking with 4.26 adjusted line yards and 16th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.3 percent. The Cardinals' defensive line is 21st against the run with 4.47 adjusted line yards and 6th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent.
The Cardinals have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 6.3 and are 6-2 ATS and 3-5 to the over/under.
J.J. Watt is out for the season, Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Rashard Lawrence, Max Garcia, Zaven Collins and Jonathan Ward are questionable for Week 9.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers got their run game going which in turn opened things up for Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kyle Shanahan's offense turned in its most complete performance since Week 1, significantly boosting its efficiency numbers from the Week 8 showing.
San Francisco ranks 9th in total weighted DVOA at 11.1 percent, 7th in offensive DVOA at 10.7 percent with a 12th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 23.2.percent and 3rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at 3.4 percent. The 49er defense is rated 17th in defensive DVOA at 0.5 percent with a 22nd rated defensive pass DVOA at 15.7 percent and 7th rated defensive rush DVOA at -19.7 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 16th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 183 and 22nd in total QBR at 47.3 with 6 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 65.3 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 12th in run blocking with 4.35 adjusted line yards and 10th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 5.2 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.52 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.7 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 1.4 and are 2-5 ATS and 4-3 to the over/under.
Azeez Al-Shaair, Dee Ford, Marcel Harris, Jimmie Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell are questionable for Week 9. San Francisco made a move to bolster its defensive line by trading for pass rusher Charles Omenihu from the Houston Texans.
Sources: The #Texans are trading young pass-rusher Charles Omenihu to the #49ers in exchange for a future late-rounder. The former fifth rounder, who has been an intriguing trade name for weeks, has a new landing spot.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 2, 2021
Prediction
This line opened up at -3 and moved to -1 and pick at some books, possibly due to speculation about whether Murray will play but it was announced today that Murray should be good to go on Sunday.
No Kyler Murray in the open part of #AZCardinals practice this morning.
WR DeAndre Hopkins also absent. Did not see WR A.J. Green either, or RB Jonathan Ward.
C Rodney Hudson, DL Rashard Lawrence, LB Zaven Collins, OL Max Garcia all practicing. pic.twitter.com/8ZBXSL7Dur
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) November 3, 2021
Since 2015, the Arizona Cardinals are 5-1 straight up and 5-0-1 ATS at San Francisco, including when Josh Rosen beat the Niners 28-18 as three-point underdogs at Levi's Stadium in 2018. Even with the line movement and Murray and DeAndre Hopkins possibly less than one hundred percent due to injury, we are hesitant to let recency bias of the Cardinals' last loss and the Niners' last win sway us to fading Arizona in this spot.
The Niners defense gave up 22 points to a Bears' offense whose previous highest point total was 24 at home against the winless Detroit Lions, and in three home games in 2021, all losses, has conceded 30, 28, and 30 points. Even after trading for Omenihu and the possibility of a less mobile Murray, San Francisco's defense is still dealing with a lot of injury and has not yet proven they can effectively keep teams from scoring at Levi's this season.
On the other side of the ball, it seems like San Francisco's offense is starting to click with Elijah Mitchell settling in as an effective, lead running back with consecutive 100-yard rushing games, Deebo Samuel playing like an all-pro, Brandon Aiyuk emerging and the possible return of George Kittle, the Niners offense is trending in the right direction and we anticipate that they find a way to score on Sunday on a Cardinals defense that may be slightly less dominant since the loss of J.J. Watt.
This season on the road, the Cardinals have scored 38, 31, 37, and 37 points, and coming off of a loss due to a last-second interception in the opponent's end zone and with extra rest, Arizona's offense should be chomping at the bit to get the taste of their first defeat out of their mouths. This total opened up at 47 but has been bet down to 45, maybe due to speculation of less offensive potency due to Murray's and Hopkin's injury, but with Murray playing we now see value at this number.
Pick: Over 45
2021 Season ATS: 3-4
Comments