The San Francisco 49ers will be coming out of their bye week and attempting to snap a three game losing streak when they host the improving Indianapolis Colts in prime time. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday October 24th, 2021 at 5:20pm PT (NBC)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -3.5; over/under 42
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts have won two out of their last three contests, including a 31-3 smashing of the Houston Texans in Week 6. Carson Wentz is quietly proving his doubters wrong with 3 straight weeks of throwing for two touchdown passes and zero interceptions and posted the highest Pro Football Focus grade among all quarterbacks in Week 6.
Your Week 6 @PFF grades have arrived. 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/AjLHEXeKqa
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) October 19, 2021
After six weeks, Indianapolis ranks 17th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at -1.1 percent, 18th in offensive DAVE at -3.7 percent with a 17th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 13.7 percent and 12th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -5.3 percent. The Colts defense is rated 13th in defensive DAVE at -2.7 percent with a 29th rated defensive pass DVOA at 27.6 percent and 1st rated defensive rush DVOA at -38.3 percent.
Carson Wentz is 17th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 110 and 17th in total QBR at 54.0 with 9 touchdown passes, 1 interception, 1 fumble lost and a 64.6 completion percentage. Indianapolis' offensive line is 16th in run blocking with 4.86 adjusted line yards and 22nd in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.5 percent. The Colts' defensive line is 13th against the run with 4.07 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.5 percent.
The Colts have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 0.6 and are 4-2 ATS and 3-3 to the over/under.
Parris Campbell and Braden Smith are out, T.Y Hilton, Rock Ya-Sin, Jordan Wilkins, Kemeko Turay and Andrew Sendejo are all questionable for Week 7.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers defense did an outstanding job of holding the potent Arizona Cardinals offense to 17 points in a 10-17 loss in Week 5, but the lack of offensive production continues to be an area of major concern for San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan's reputation as an offensive mastermind.
San Francisco ranks 12th in total DAVE at 7.9 percent, 14th in offensive DAVE at 3.6 percent with a 12th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 24.3 percent and 15th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 7th in defensive DAVE at -5.2 percent with a 14th rated defensive pass DVOA at 5.7 percent and 15th rated defensive rush DVOA at -13.8 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 15th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 152 and 20th in total QBR at 50.6 with 5 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble lost and a 67.2 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 14th in run blocking with 4.36 adjusted line yards and 14th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 5.8 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 7th against the run with 3.81 adjusted line yards and 19th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.1 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.0 and are 1-4 ATS and 2-3 to the over/under.
K'Waun Williams is out, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcel Harris and Trey Lance are questionable for Week 7.
Prediction
Since 2017, Kyle Shanahan is 3-2 ATS the week after a bye, 3-1 ATS the week after a bye since 2018, but given how San Francisco is 5-13-1 ATS as a home favorite during his tenure, we are not confident in taking the Niners laying more than a field goal in this spot, though we do expect San Francisco to win the game.
Kyle Shanahan's offense is predicated off a successful run game, so it is no surprise that the 49ers have been unable to establish a successful run game in losing three in a row, and it's hard to imagine sudden success against DeForest Buckner and Indianapolis' top ranked rushing defense that limited the Baltimore Ravens vaunted rushing attack to 86 total yards.
The Colts passing defense, however, is one of the worst in the league, and we anticipate that Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo will be rested and ready coming out of the bye, chomping at the bit to show that they can do better than their recent, anemic offensive performances by establishing a successful air attack and to prove that there really is no crisis in Santa Clara.
"I'm confident as I've always been and confident as I've ever been that we're going in the right direction."
John Lynch joined @maioccoNBCS on the latest 49ers Talk episode: https://t.co/clzSbF0Raa pic.twitter.com/3roROePrD6
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) October 18, 2021
Carson Wentz has been steadily improving in his performances and is no stranger to Sunday Night Football at Levi's stadium, having beaten the 49ers on Sunday Night Football as an underdog in 2020, and we see him having some success on Sunday.
DeMeco Ryans is leading a unit that just held Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals to their lowest point total of the season, but Frank Reich has the Colts offense gaining confidence and potency and we expect them to find some success in prime time as they did on Monday Night Football in Week 5. If Shanahan's game plan includes taking advantage of the Colt's passing defense, and less of an emphasis on the run game, we could an extended contest and the opportunity for more points scored.
But with steady, heavy rain hitting San Francisco and the eye of the storm forecasted to hit the South Bay soon, Levi's Stadium will be experiencing nearly constant rain during Sunday Night Football and 17 mile per hour winds from the south at 5:00pm, 15 mph winds at 6:00pm and 13 mph winds at 7:00pm, making us no longer confident in recommending the over as our best bet.
With Pro Bowl tackle Quenton Nelson probable for Sunday and Trent Williams doubtful, taken together with the 49ers terrible ATS record at home under Shanahan, we now see all the value with the dog getting more than a field goal.
Updated Pick: Colts +3.5
2021 Season ATS: 2-3