Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports


Updated: San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts odds and pick - Week 7, 2021

Oct 19, 2021 at 5:35 PM--


The San Francisco 49ers will be coming out of their bye week and attempting to snap a three game losing streak when they host the improving Indianapolis Colts in prime time. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

  • When: Sunday October 24th, 2021 at 5:20pm PT (NBC)
  • Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
  • Line: 49ers -3.5; over/under 42

Indianapolis Colts


The Indianapolis Colts have won two out of their last three contests, including a 31-3 smashing of the Houston Texans in Week 6. Carson Wentz is quietly proving his doubters wrong with 3 straight weeks of throwing for two touchdown passes and zero interceptions and posted the highest Pro Football Focus grade among all quarterbacks in Week 6.
After six weeks, Indianapolis ranks 17th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at -1.1 percent, 18th in offensive DAVE at -3.7 percent with a 17th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 13.7 percent and 12th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -5.3 percent. The Colts defense is rated 13th in defensive DAVE at -2.7 percent with a 29th rated defensive pass DVOA at 27.6 percent and 1st rated defensive rush DVOA at -38.3 percent.

Carson Wentz is 17th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 110 and 17th in total QBR at 54.0 with 9 touchdown passes, 1 interception, 1 fumble lost and a 64.6 completion percentage. Indianapolis' offensive line is 16th in run blocking with 4.86 adjusted line yards and 22nd in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.5 percent. The Colts' defensive line is 13th against the run with 4.07 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.5 percent.

The Colts have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 0.6 and are 4-2 ATS and 3-3 to the over/under.

Parris Campbell and Braden Smith are out, T.Y Hilton, Rock Ya-Sin, Jordan Wilkins, Kemeko Turay and Andrew Sendejo are all questionable for Week 7.

San Francisco 49ers


The 49ers defense did an outstanding job of holding the potent Arizona Cardinals offense to 17 points in a 10-17 loss in Week 5, but the lack of offensive production continues to be an area of major concern for San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan's reputation as an offensive mastermind.

San Francisco ranks 12th in total DAVE at 7.9 percent, 14th in offensive DAVE at 3.6 percent with a 12th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 24.3 percent and 15th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 7th in defensive DAVE at -5.2 percent with a 14th rated defensive pass DVOA at 5.7 percent and 15th rated defensive rush DVOA at -13.8 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 15th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 152 and 20th in total QBR at 50.6 with 5 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble lost and a 67.2 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 14th in run blocking with 4.36 adjusted line yards and 14th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 5.8 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 7th against the run with 3.81 adjusted line yards and 19th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.1 percent.

The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.0 and are 1-4 ATS and 2-3 to the over/under.

K'Waun Williams is out, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcel Harris and Trey Lance are questionable for Week 7.

Prediction


Since 2017, Kyle Shanahan is 3-2 ATS the week after a bye, 3-1 ATS the week after a bye since 2018, but given how San Francisco is 5-13-1 ATS as a home favorite during his tenure, we are not confident in taking the Niners laying more than a field goal in this spot, though we do expect San Francisco to win the game.

Kyle Shanahan's offense is predicated off a successful run game, so it is no surprise that the 49ers have been unable to establish a successful run game in losing three in a row, and it's hard to imagine sudden success against DeForest Buckner and Indianapolis' top ranked rushing defense that limited the Baltimore Ravens vaunted rushing attack to 86 total yards.

The Colts passing defense, however, is one of the worst in the league, and we anticipate that Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo will be rested and ready coming out of the bye, chomping at the bit to show that they can do better than their recent, anemic offensive performances by establishing a successful air attack and to prove that there really is no crisis in Santa Clara.
Carson Wentz has been steadily improving in his performances and is no stranger to Sunday Night Football at Levi's stadium, having beaten the 49ers on Sunday Night Football as an underdog in 2020, and we see him having some success on Sunday.

DeMeco Ryans is leading a unit that just held Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals to their lowest point total of the season, but Frank Reich has the Colts offense gaining confidence and potency and we expect them to find some success in prime time as they did on Monday Night Football in Week 5. If Shanahan's game plan includes taking advantage of the Colt's passing defense, and less of an emphasis on the run game, we could an extended contest and the opportunity for more points scored.

But with steady, heavy rain hitting San Francisco and the eye of the storm forecasted to hit the South Bay soon, Levi's Stadium will be experiencing nearly constant rain during Sunday Night Football and 17 mile per hour winds from the south at 5:00pm, 15 mph winds at 6:00pm and 13 mph winds at 7:00pm, making us no longer confident in recommending the over as our best bet.

With Pro Bowl tackle Quenton Nelson probable for Sunday and Trent Williams doubtful, taken together with the 49ers terrible ATS record at home under Shanahan, we now see all the value with the dog getting more than a field goal.

Updated Pick: Colts +3.5

2021 Season ATS: 2-3

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers vs. Colts on 10/24/21?
  • 49ers -3.5
  • Colts +3.5
  • Over 42
  • Under 42
The opinions within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.





More San Francisco 49ers News



Will the 49ers keep winning against the lowly Jaguars? Week 11, 2021 odds and pick

By Winston Chung
Nov 17

The San Francisco 49ers got off the schneid at home and back into the playoff hunt with a much-needed win over the division rival Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. The Niners will now try to keep the momentum going as they head into a softer portion of the schedule, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday, November 21st, 2021 at 10:00 am PT (FOX) Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida Line: 49ers -6.5, over/under 45.5 Jacksonville Jaguars The Jacksonville Jaguars lost by the score of 17-23 to division rival Indianapolis Colts in Week 10, though they covered the spread as 10.5 point underdogs. After



Can the 49ers handle the improving Vikings to make it 3 straight wins and covers? Week 12 betting odds and pick

By Winston Chung
Nov 23

The San Francisco 49ers won consecutive games for the first time since Week 2 and will attempt to win consecutive games at home for the first time since 2019 when they host the surging Minnesota Vikings in a Week 12 contest with significant implications for a potential playoff berth. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective. When: Sunday, November 28th, 2021 at 1:25 pm PT (FOX) Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California Line: 49ers -3, over/under 48 Minnesota Vikings The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 34-31 as one point underdogs for their second straight win as an underdog and third straight against-the-spread (ATS) cover. After eleven weeks, Minnesota ranks



49ers at Jaguars, Week 11 predictions: San Francisco seeks to reach .500

By Site Staff
Nov 20

The Jaguars are set to host the San Francisco 49ers at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida on Sunday, November 21 at 10:00 a.m. PT. Each week, the 49ers Webzone staff predicts the winner within its annual NFL Pick 'em contest. That includes writers and forum moderators. All six participating staff members this week selected the 49ers to beat the Jaguars. San Francisco is currently a 6.5-point favorite. The Niners would improve to 5-5 with a win. As for all the fans who are taking part in our NFL Pick 'em contest, 97 percent have the 49ers winning the



49ers-Rams Inactives: Entire 2021 draft class active for Niners; Odell Beckham Jr., Von Miller active

By David Bonilla
Nov 15

The San Francisco 49ers have released the list of inactive players for their Week 10 matchup at home against the Los Angeles Rams. These players will not suit up for Monday's game. Inactives: RB JaMycal Hasty DL Maurice Hurst CB Dre Kirkpatrick OL Colton McKivitz This is the first time that every player from the 49ers' most recent draft class has been active for a game. That includes offensive lineman Aaron Banks and cornerback Ambry Thomas. Banks, a second-round pick, has only been active for one other game. Earlier today, the 49ers activated safety Tony Jefferson from the practice squad.


Featured

Trending News

Share 49ersWebzone