Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Frelund’s simulations project 10 wins, NFC West crown for 49ers, at least 6 TDs for George Kittle

Sep 6, 2021 at 2:42 PM--

It's worth noting that NFL Network analyst Cynthia Frelund actually projects 10.1 wins for the San Francisco 49ers, but I didn't need a bunch of social media posts asking what 0.1 of a win is without bothering to read this. Frelund ran her most simulations to date, a whopping 300,000 that included every regular-season game. That's a total of 81.6 million simulated games. She then took her data and vetted it with several experts to determine the projected win total for each team in 2021 based on those simulations.

The San Francisco 49ers ended up with the third-most projected win average in the NFC, with only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12.5) and the Green Bay Packers (10.5) coming in higher.

However, there is also a ceiling of 11.9 wins based on the simulations—a best-case scenario, if you will. The floor for the team is 6.9 wins. Why the significant margin? It could mean the 49ers are projected to be involved in several close games in 2021. It could also mean their season projection is very dependent on a healthier campaign than last year when San Francisco suffered a historic number of injuries.

The 10.1-game win total tops the Los Angeles Rams (9.9), Arizona Cardinals (9.1), and Seattle Seahawks (8.6), making the Niners the favorite to win the NFC West in Frelund's projections. She has the Seahawks as the lone NFC West team missing the playoffs.

"Yep, with a clean bill of health in San Francisco, this is my model's selection for the team that goes from worst to first," wrote Frelund before making a prediction for one of the Niners' biggest stars.

George Kittle is already in the conversation as the NFL's best tight end. He has twice surpassed 1,000 yards receiving and might have done so again last season had he not missed eight games. Despite being an important part of the offense, Kittle has never scored more than five touchdowns in a single season.

"George Kittle projects to reach the end zone at least six times in a whopping 59.8 percent of simulations," Frelund wrote, with "at least" being the key phrase there.

That's good news for the 49ers, who hope to create a threatening receiving trio in Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel.

Unfortunately, Frelund doesn't touch on how the 49ers' quarterback situation might turn out, but you have to imagine her simulations are based on Jimmy Garoppolo staying healthy and remaining the starter for the year, as they are unlikely to account for a mid-season quarterback switch to Trey Lance.

More San Francisco 49ers News

Cynthia Frelund lists 49ers among contenders despite 2-2 start

By David Bonilla
Oct 6

San Francisco 49ers fans appear to be in a bit of a mini panic regarding the fate of their favorite NFL team. The Niners entered the season viewed as a playoff contender and a strong candidate to emerge as the NFC West champions. However, stumbling out of the 2021 season gate with a 2-2 record has generated some concern. Were the offseason expectations for San Francisco too high? It's a topic discussed at length in the latest episode of the 49ers Webzone No Huddle Podcast. It's also a topic touched on by NFL Media analytics expert Cynthia Frelund, who, in

49ers-Seahawks Injury Report: George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell questionable for Sunday; Josh Norman doubtful

By David Bonilla
Oct 1

The San Francisco 49ers are preparing for their Week 4 contest against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The good news is that reporters saw tight end George Kittle during today's practice after absences on Wednesday and Thursday. He was on a side field getting in some work. Kittle's presence is progress and potentially a positive sign that the star might be available on Sunday. #49ers practice underway. TE George Kittle (calf) and CB Josh Norman (lung) are doing some

George Kittle on 49ers-Seahawks availability: "If my body says I can go, I'll be out there"

By David Bonilla
Oct 1

George Kittle spoke with reporters after today's practice. The San Francisco 49ers tight end's availability for Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks seems up in the air right now. Kittle has been dealing with what has been described as "calf soreness." He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and was limited this afternoon. Still, it's George Kittle, and you never want to rule him out of anything. "Totally faking it," Kittle joked. "Yeah, I'm feeling good." Today, head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that the issue didn't originate from the Green Bay Packers game. It started in either Week 1 or Week 2. The coach couldn't recall which game, specifically. "He'd gotten stepped on pretty hard, so that bothered him," Shanahan said. "...

49ers' George Kittle expected to play vs. Seahawks; Elijah Mitchell out

By David Bonilla
Oct 3

"I mean, I'm going to do everything I can to be on the field on Sunday," George Kittle told reporters on Friday. "And then, if my body says I can go, I'll be out there." It sounds like we can expect the San Francisco 49ers star tight end to be out there for the team's first divisional matchup of the season. Despite being listed as "questionable" for the game, per multiple reports, Kittle is expected to be on the field at Levi's Stadium this afternoon when the Niners host the Seattle Seahawks. "While officially a game-time decision, SF has optimism that Kittle will be correct," notes Ian Rapoport of NFL


Trending News

Share 49ersWebzone