ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has a lot of confidence in the San Francisco 49ers' ability to go from worst to first in 2021. The team finished with six wins last season, finishing last in the division, yet has a 33.2 percent chance—per FPI—of winning the NFC West this season. No other team on Bill Barnwell's ranking of likely worst-to-first teams has a higher percentage chance to win its division.
That's good enough to rank the Niners second on Barnwell's list. Which team is first? That would be the Jacksonville Jaguars, which has to do with a combination of optimism about the AFC South team and a lack of confidence in the rest of the division.
But you're here to learn about San Francisco, not Jacksonville.
The 49ers' 33.2 percent chance of winning the NFC West is best in the division. The Los Angeles Rams come in at second with a 29.3 percent chance of being crowned.
First, let's look at Barnwell's reasons why the 49ers are a good bet to go from worst to first. The team drafted Jimmy Garoppolo's successor, Trey Lance, in April. The rookie quarterback has looked good in training camp and appears to be a significant upgrade over past backups like Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. That's a good insurance policy should Garoppolo, the team's expected Week 1 starter, go down again.
Barnwell uses the word "curse" while describing the 49ers' injury fortunes last season. That seems appropriate considering the historic number of injuries the team endured on the way to six wins. Some better luck with health and improved quarterback play—meaning Garoppolo staying on the field—should provide a significant boost in 2021.
"San Francisco was 1-3 in one-score games a year ago and turned the ball over 31 times en route to a minus-11 turnover margin," wrote Barnwell. "The latter figure alone might have sunk Kyle Shanahan's team, as it was 5-1 when it won the turnover battle and 1-9 when it did not, with its only win coming against the Jets."
Now the concerns.
Barnwell is worried about the aforementioned injuries. It's not that he's expecting a repeat of 2020. Instead, he wonders about a roster that is relying on players with significant injury histories.
The other concern is the division itself. While a lack of respect for the AFC South influenced the Jaguars earning Barnwell's top spot on his list, an opposite view of the NFC West kept San Francisco out of the No. 1 spot. The 49ers play in arguably the best division in football.
The Rams and Seattle Seahawks both made the playoffs in 2020, and the Arizona Cardinals were no doormat.
"Each of San Francisco's divisional rivals finished in the top 13 in DVOA," notes Barnwell.
ESPN's FPI gives the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks each an over 62 percent chance of making the playoffs this season, and the Cardinals own a 31.7 percent chance to play beyond Week 18.
The good news is that, as a last-place team, the 49ers' schedule is significantly easier than it would have been had they finished at the top of the division last season. Heading into the 2020 season, FPI had them with the second-toughest schedule. A year later, they are expected to face the fourth-easiest slate of opponents.
Adds Barnwell: "If they get healthy and the schedule gets much easier, the Niners should be right in the mix atop the NFC West. I wouldn't fault anyone for making them their top pick to go worst to first."