Once again, Pro Football Focus took a different approach to predicting the records of each NFL team. The analytics site looked at the best- and worst-case scenarios for all 32 clubs. Pro Football Focus used season simulations by its research and development team to predict the high range (90th percentile) and low range (10th percentile) for each squad.
"The potential win-loss records highlighted in this piece aren't truly the extremes," wrote Ben Linsey. "Rather, they're the 10th- and 90th-percentile outcomes, meaning that 80% of that team's simulation results fall somewhere between those two records. Inevitably, there will be teams that fall outside these parameters in 2021."
How did the San Francisco 49ers fare in Pro Football Focus' simulations? First, let's take a look at the low range, or the 10th percentile outcome. That has the 49ers finishing with a 6-11 record. The path to that record would require similarly disappointing quarterback play to last season's six-win campaign. Even a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't necessarily equate to more success, in Linsey's opinion.
"Quarterback is the position that holds this team back," wrote Linsey. "Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't elevate Kyle Shanahan's offense in the way he would like him to, leading the 49ers to push Trey Lance into the starting job. And it becomes apparent that Lance still has work to do when it comes to pre-draft concerns surrounding his accuracy and experience."
There is also the concern surrounding the transition from defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to DeMeco Ryans and the lack of depth at cornerback.
Pro Football Focus' best-case scenario, or the 90th percentile outcome, has San Francisco earning five more wins and finishing with an 11-6 record. However, that will require much better luck staying healthy, which was the biggest issue last season.
Pass rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford combined for just three game appearances. Having them contributing and playing at a high level would be significant for the defense. Bosa and Ford earned pressure rates of at least 15.0 percent in 2019.
Then you have the quarterback position.
"Most importantly, Garoppolo and Lance remain healthy, and San Francisco gets quality play from the quarterback position," wrote Linsey. "That certainly wasn't the case in 2020. The 49ers ranked 28th in team passing grade last season, ahead of only the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos, and New York Jets."
