As is the case with almost any rookie, there are question marks surrounding quarterback Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall draft pick by the San Francisco 49ers. Much of the concern has to do with the 21-year-old's experience — or lack thereof. Lance started just 17 games for North Dakota State and made just 318 pass attempts during his collegiate career.
Then you have the perceived low level of competition that the Bison faced within the FCS. Not only is Lance's experience limited, but he never faced an FBS opponent.
Analyst Sam Monson also brings up Lance's collegiate accuracy metrics in a recent feature for Pro Football Focus. The North Dakota State quarterback's accuracy rate of 47.4 percent ranked 210th among all collegiate quarterbacks since 2018. The metric adjusts a quarterback's completion percentage for where the football was supposed to be placed to earn more yards and reduce a defender's ability to make a play on the pass.
Still, Monson thinks very highly of Lance. In addition to the athleticism that the quarterback brings to an offense, Lance is careful with the football. The quarterback recorded just six turnover-worthy plays at North Dakota State, including fumbles. His turnover-worthy play rate of 1.6 percent is the lowest among any of the top quarterbacks in this year's draft class. The next closest passer is Justin Fields at 2.2 percent.
"He may be inexperienced, but it doesn't show in terms of being able to read defenses or diagnose coverages or even react to changes in the defensive picture between pre- and post-snap looks," wrote Monson. "... You can certainly argue that the small sample size means that we haven't seen Lance exposed to as many situations that lead to forced mistakes, but the ones we have seen him placed in haven't forced them. Lance is routinely able to adjust during the course of a play and not get suckered by a changing defense before his eyes."
Monson is so confident in Lance's ability that he makes the argument that San Francisco should start the rookie from Week 1. He also believes that doing so could lead to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
The 49ers surrendered multiple first-round picks and a third-rounder to move up to get Lance. They are without a first-round pick until 2024. They clearly believe that Lance was worth giving up the valuable draft capital.
There is also some concern that continuing to miss valuable in-game reps could hurt Lance. He has played in just one game — a non-conference matchup on October 3, 2020 — over the past 499 days.
"Lance has the tools to take what is already one of the best schemes in football into a whole new realm of irresistibility," wrote Monson, "and if there isn't a glaring reason to throw a block in front of that happening, then I see no reason not to play Lance immediately.
"His tape just doesn't show the kind of problematic trait that should keep him off the field, and so, even with Garoppolo waiting in the wings, the 49ers should install Lance as their Day 1 starter and watch him cruise his way to Rookie of the Year honors within this offense."
Click here to read Monson's entire feature on Lance, which includes more valuable analysis, at Pro Football Focus.
