Note: Lance Zierlein updated his mock draft after this article was initially published. He now includes the 49ers trading down from No. 12 to No. 14. The article has been updated, but also includes Zierlein's original explanation for the selection at No. 12.
NFL Media draft analyst Lance Zierlein had the San Francisco 49ers selecting quarterback Trey Lance out of North Dakota State in his first mock draft, which was released last month. Lance's stock since then has increased. Zierlein now has the former Bison as the third quarterback selected in his latest mock draft, going to the Carolina Panthers, who move up to No. 4 to secure him.
As was the case with last month's mock draft, this latest one is a projection of where Zierlein believes prospects will land and not necessarily where he feels they should go.
With the top four quarterback prospects off the board by the time San Francisco selects at No. 12, Zierlein foresees a possible discussion taking place in the 49ers' war room. Should they select a talented pass rusher to add to their arsenal or a cornerback to add to the defensive backfield?
Zierlein has San Francisco going with the latter, after trading with the Minnesota Vikings to move down to No. 14. He has Caleb Farley of Virginia Tech headed to the Bay Area.
"Edge rusher Kwity Paye actually fits a need and the physical profile here, but Farley's size, athleticism and talent will be hard to pass up for a defense with such small cornerbacks," wrote Zierlein before changing his mock draft to include the trade-down.
Farley (6-2, 207) recorded 20 tackles, four interceptions, a touchdown, and 12 passes defensed through 10 games as a sophomore in 2019, per Sports Reference. The performance earned him first-team All-ACC honors.
"This is a win for the 49ers," wrote Zierlein after the update. "They trade back, add draft capital and still land a talented young cornerback who fits their defense."
Zierlein's colleague, analytics expert Cynthia Frelund, also had the 49ers selecting Farley in her mock draft earlier this month. However, her data-driven projections were meant to maximize each team's potential to win as many games as possible in 2021, and not what she felt teams might do.
"PFF credits Farley with allowing a passer rating in coverage of just 26.8 in 2019 (he opted out in 2020)," wrote Frelund. "My model shows the Virginia Tech product had the best pursuit speed of any available corner in this draft. Combine him with that nasty Niners front, and new defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans will get off to a great start."
Farley not playing in 2020 has left him with just 23 career collegiate games for scouts to evaluate.
The 2021 NFL Draft begins on April 29.