The San Francisco 49ers aren't out of the playoff hunt yet. Although, it will be an uphill climb just to make it to postseason play in January. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) puts the 5-6 49ers' playoff chances at 39.8 percent, which is higher than the Arizona Cardinals (6-6, 37.6 percent) or Minnesota Vikings (6-6, 19 percent) — two other teams battling for that last NFC wild-card spot.
The 49ers can't worry about the other teams in the hunt right now, though. They have to stay focused on Monday night's matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
"Despite losing three straight to the Packers, Saints, and Seahawks, the 49ers are well-positioned to make a playoff run," wrote ESPN's Bill Barnwell. "In part, that's because of their schedule; they still have two games against the NFC East to come, and while they have a tough matchup in their new home of Arizona against the Bills on Monday night, they finish up with a pair of critical divisional games against the Cardinals and Seahawks. Even if Kyle Shanahan's team loses to the Bills, The Upshot's model suggests that the Niners would still have a 41% chance of making it to the postseason if they sweep the East and head into the final two games at 7-8."
Barnwell isn't as optimistic about San Francisco's chances of earning a playoff spot as ESPN's FPI. Much of that has to do with the injuries the roster has endured this season. While some players have started to trickle back, others like Nick Bosa and Dee Ford won't return.
Barnwell also lists quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but head coach Kyle Shanahan remains hopeful that he can return before the end of the season.
That puts a lot of pressure on Nick Mullens to improve in Garoppolo's absence and guide the defending NFC champions to some much-needed victories. However, the fill-in quarterback ranks No. 28 in Total QBR this season.
"Shanahan has tried to manufacture easy completions for his passer," Barnwell continued, "but the offense breaks down when opposing defenses get on Mullens. The undrafted free agent has been pressured on more than 31% of his dropbacks, and he has posted a league-low QBR of 3.5 when pressured. The Bills rank third in the NFL in pressure rate, which doesn't bode well for the Niners on Monday."