Analyst explains Football Outsiders’ reluctance to predict Super Bowl return for 49ers

Football Outsiders' creator, Aaron Schatz, joined Good Morning Football on NFL Network today and predicted that fans would see the New Orleans Saints facing the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. Of course, this may be one of the most challenging seasons to predict, given the NFL's efforts to play football amidst a pandemic. Who knows what could happen or if the season will even begin?

Assuming it does, and COVID-19 doesn't drastically impact rosters, why did Schatz pick the Saints over the San Francisco 49ers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl? He discussed head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad after being asked to identify this offseason's "all-hype" team, about which Football Outsiders is a little worried.

"We're actually a little worried about the return of the San Francisco 49ers," Schatz responded. "Here's the thing: Last year, in our efficiency stat, the 49ers were the first team in 35 years to improve by 20 percent on both sides of the ball. And usually, when a team has that much improvement, they come back to the pack a little bit next year."

The 49ers had an impressive run in 2019, coming just short of the franchise's sixth championship, and then used the draft to replace some key offseason losses.

"It's called the plexiglass principle, and the 49ers are looking at that on both sides of the ball," Schatz continued. "Obviously, there's a lot of talent there, but we worry a little bit about the loss of Buckner, we worry about the loss of Emmanuel Sanders, and questions about the wide receiver corps.

"The 49ers could make the playoffs in the strongest division in football, but I don't think they're going to be the juggernaut going to the Super Bowl that we saw a year ago."