In a special to ESPN, Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders took the eight NFL teams that finished last within their respective divisions last season and ranked them based on their chances of winning their division and making the postseason in 2018.
The San Francisco 49ers came in at No. 3 within the eight-team ranking. Verhei placed their chances of winning the NFC West at 14.9 percent and making the playoffs at 25.9 percent. His reasoning behind the 49ers' placement starts with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
Verhei starts his analysis by making the point, "Five good starts does not a franchise quarterback make." In fact, he wants his readers to understand that so much that he writes it three times in a row.
The Football Outsiders assistant editor explains that virtually any quarterback can become an NFL starter and is also capable of having a hot streak like Garoppolo's. While the statement might seem like a reach, his point is that he hasn't seen enough of the 49ers quarterback to convince him that Garoppolo "can really be the guy in San Francisco."
Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch, however, saw enough during those five games to know that Garoppolo could be their franchise quarterback. They believed it so much that the 49ers rewarded Garoppolo in February with a five-year deal worth up to $137.5 million. The quarterback's new contract puts his deal in line with the six-year ones that Shanahan and Lynch received from the 49ers last year.
Shanahan and Lynch also had the added benefit of watching Garoppolo during practices and around the building with his new teammates. His ability to step in right away as a leader on the team spoke volumes to the 49ers.
"The arm talent, to us, and all those things, it's natural," Lynch recently said on KNBR. "He was blessed. Certain people are, and he was blessed. So we knew that. But really, probably, what we evaluated more than anything to see if this is the guy we want to move forward with is: How do his teammates respond to him? What is his work ethic like?
"We got to see that firsthand when he came in, tried to learn a new system. He never left this building. I think he's got a special quality and the humility that he has. It's almost, at times, that he's oblivious to what everybody's talking about, the 'Jimmy G' (stuff) ... Although he's not just a normal guy, he acts like a normal guy, and he works every day. I think that's what's going to make him a really good player."
Verhei also noted the number of interceptions Garoppolo threw as the 49ers' starting quarterback last year and the more he could have thrown if not for some drops by defenders.
"He's not likely to get away with those mistakes over 16 games," Verhei writes.
It's not just Garoppolo. The 49ers have "a suspect pass-rush" and "a paper-thin secondary," according to Verhei. He views that as a significant problem within a division that has a heavily-loaded Los Angeles Rams team, quarterback Russell Wilson, and a solid defense in Arizona.