ESPN analyst projects 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo to pass for over 4,500 yards in 2018

For the first time since being drafted by the New England Patriots in 2014, Jimmy Garoppolo will head into a season as the true starting quarterback for an NFL franchise. He started the first two games of the 2016 season, but it was in place of a suspended Tom Brady.

Garoppolo was traded on October 30, 2017, to the San Francisco 49ers and worked to prove to head coach Kyle Shanahan that he could be a franchise quarterback. Five starts, five victories, and a five-year deal worth up to $137.5 million later, Garoppolo is the man Shanahan's offense will revolve around for the foreseeable future.

Garoppolo's entire NFL sample size consists of just seven starts. While the quarterback remains undefeated as a starter, fans can only speculate what he might do with a full 16-game season.

"I'm looking forward to watching him play through a season," Shanahan recently told Adam Schefter on an ESPN podcast. "I know he's going to have some highs and I know he's going to have some lows and I want to see how he responds to it, how his teammates respond to it.

"Playing quarterback in this league isn't just about how talented you are and how good you are, it's how you can respond to all this pressure that really not many people can relate to except probably an NFL quarterback can."

ESPN fantasy football and NFL analyst Mike Clay compiled his early fantasy football projections for the 49ers in 2018, which included Garoppolo and every other player on the roster. He also performed game-by-game predictions and had the win percentage for San Francisco at 50-percent-or-more in 10 of their 16 matchups with a projected win total of 8.2 games.

"Although some would swear the projection numbers are totally automated or randomly generated, I assure you they are not," wrote Clay in a recent ESPN feature. "I have a lengthy process that involves both statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is where this piece truly comes in handy. To begin each league year, I go team by team and thoroughly analyze historical league, team, coach and player trends. From there, I generate projected dropback, carry and target shares for each player."

Among Clay's league-wide notes were some thoughts on second-year tight end George Kittle, who is projected to be a starter once again.

"49ers TE George Kittle was on the field for 77 percent of the team's snaps, ran a route on 73 percent of the team's pass plays and handled a 13 percent target share during Weeks 1-6 last season," wrote Clay. "Those marks were 44 percent, 46 percent and 10 percent during his final nine games. While Kittle was fantasy's No. 10 tight end during Jimmy Garoppolo's five starts to wind down the season, the drastic dip in usage should certainly be viewed as a red flag. On the plus side, the team has yet to add to the tight end room this offseason, which means Kittle -- a fifth-round pick last season -- remains a potential breakout candidate at the position."

Below are some of Clay's projected statistics for key 49ers players in 2018. You can view the entire statistical breakdown here. Of course, these projections will evolve as the offseason progresses and the roster changes.

Also, for those wondering, linebacker Reuben Foster's projected stats do not take into account any potential suspension by the league due to his offseason troubles.

H/T to Kirk Larrabee of 247 Sports for the find.