Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
49ers-Bears game will have a major impact on draft order
Nov 29, 2016 at 12:39 PM
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With every loss this season, the Cleveland Browns get a step closer to locking up the top overall selection in the 2017 NFL Draft. It is hard to believe that the San Francisco 49ers have lost 10 consecutive games – a franchise record – and still may not get the top overall pick. The 49ers currently sit at 1-10 while the Browns sit at 0-12. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears (2-9) are sitting at the number four spot thanks to a stronger strength of schedule than the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9).
According to
ESPN's Football Power Index, Sunday's game between the 49ers and Bears will have a major impact on the chances of obtaining the number two overall selection in the draft. A 49ers loss will increase their chance of getting a top two selection to 79 percent versus 6 percent for the Bears. A Bears loss will increase their chance of getting a top two selection to 49 percent versus 30 percent for the 49ers.
Currently, Chicago has a weaker strength of schedule than San Francisco, which is the determining factor should any ties with records occur.
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The Bears are currently 2.5-point favorites in Sunday's matchup with the visiting 49ers. That may fluctuate as the game nears. According to
ESPN, Chicago has a 57 percent chance of beating San Francisco.
Below is the current draft order, based on playoff seeding (21-32), record, and strength of schedule (SOS), for all 32 first-round spots
if the season ended today. Of course, the order of playoff teams would eventually be determined by the completed playoff picture.
| | Team | Record | SOS |
|---|
| 1 |
Cleveland Browns |
0-12 |
.574 |
| 2 |
San Francisco 49ers |
1-10 |
.573 |
| 3 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
2-9 |
.533 |
| 4 |
Chicago Bears |
2-9 |
.541 |
| 5 |
New York Jets |
3-8 |
.504 |
| 6 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
3-7-1 |
.561 |
| 7 |
Tennessee Titans (from Rams) |
4-7 |
.488 |
| 8 |
Carolina Panthers |
4-7 |
.523 |
| 9 |
Arizona Cardinals |
4-6-1 |
.486 |
| 10 |
Indianapolis Colts |
5-6 |
.486 |
| 11 |
Green Bay Packers |
5-6 |
.529 |
| 12 |
Cleveland Browns (from Eagles) |
5-6 |
.533 |
| 13 |
New Orleans Saints |
5-6 |
.550 |
| 14 |
San Diego Chargers |
5-6 |
.559 |
| 15 |
Tennessee Titans |
6-6 |
.443 |
| 16 |
Buffalo Bills |
6-5 |
.432 |
| 17 |
Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings) |
6-5 |
.486 |
| 18 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
6-5 |
.491 |
| 19 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
6-5 |
.516 |
| 20 |
Denver Broncos |
7-4 |
.532 |
| 21 |
Washington Redskins |
6-4-1 |
-- |
| 22 |
Miami Dolphins |
7-4 |
-- |
| 23 |
New York Giants |
8-3 |
-- |
| 24 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
8-3 |
-- |
| 25 |
Houston Texans |
6-5 |
-- |
| 26 |
Atlanta Falcons |
7-4 |
-- |
| 27 |
Baltimore Ravens |
6-5 |
-- |
| 28 |
Detroit Lions |
7-4 |
-- |
| 29 |
Seattle Seahawks |
7-3-1 |
-- |
| 30 |
Oakland Raiders |
9-2 |
-- |
| 31 |
New England Patriots |
9-2 |
-- |
| 32 |
Dallas Cowboys |
10-1 |
-- |
* 21-32 based on projected playoff seeding, not record or strength of schedule
** Trades show the record of the origin team
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