Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports


49ers-Bears game will have a major impact on draft order

Nov 29, 2016 at 12:39 PM--


With every loss this season, the Cleveland Browns get a step closer to locking up the top overall selection in the 2017 NFL Draft. It is hard to believe that the San Francisco 49ers have lost 10 consecutive games – a franchise record – and still may not get the top overall pick. The 49ers currently sit at 1-10 while the Browns sit at 0-12. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears (2-9) are sitting at the number four spot thanks to a stronger strength of schedule than the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9).

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Sunday's game between the 49ers and Bears will have a major impact on the chances of obtaining the number two overall selection in the draft. A 49ers loss will increase their chance of getting a top two selection to 79 percent versus 6 percent for the Bears. A Bears loss will increase their chance of getting a top two selection to 49 percent versus 30 percent for the 49ers.

Currently, Chicago has a weaker strength of schedule than San Francisco, which is the determining factor should any ties with records occur.



The Bears are currently 2.5-point favorites in Sunday's matchup with the visiting 49ers. That may fluctuate as the game nears. According to ESPN, Chicago has a 57 percent chance of beating San Francisco.

Below is the current draft order, based on playoff seeding (21-32), record, and strength of schedule (SOS), for all 32 first-round spots if the season ended today. Of course, the order of playoff teams would eventually be determined by the completed playoff picture.

TeamRecordSOS
1 Cleveland Browns 0-12 .574
2 San Francisco 49ers 1-10 .573
3 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-9 .533
4 Chicago Bears 2-9 .541
5 New York Jets 3-8 .504
6 Cincinnati Bengals 3-7-1 .561
7 Tennessee Titans (from Rams) 4-7 .488
8 Carolina Panthers 4-7 .523
9 Arizona Cardinals 4-6-1 .486
10 Indianapolis Colts 5-6 .486
11 Green Bay Packers 5-6 .529
12 Cleveland Browns (from Eagles) 5-6 .533
13 New Orleans Saints 5-6 .550
14 San Diego Chargers 5-6 .559
15 Tennessee Titans 6-6 .443
16 Buffalo Bills 6-5 .432
17 Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings) 6-5 .486
18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-5 .491
19 Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5 .516
20 Denver Broncos 7-4 .532
21 Washington Redskins 6-4-1 --
22 Miami Dolphins 7-4 --
23 New York Giants 8-3 --
24 Kansas City Chiefs 8-3 --
25 Houston Texans 6-5 --
26 Atlanta Falcons 7-4 --
27 Baltimore Ravens 6-5 --
28 Detroit Lions 7-4 --
29 Seattle Seahawks 7-3-1 --
30 Oakland Raiders 9-2 --
31 New England Patriots 9-2 --
32 Dallas Cowboys 10-1 --

* 21-32 based on projected playoff seeding, not record or strength of schedule
** Trades show the record of the origin team



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