Injuries played a significant role in the 49ers' struggles, and a significant offseason roster overhaul has fueled skepticism among critics who foresee another challenging year. However, there are reasons for optimism—starting with the 49ers' schedule. San Francisco enters 2025 with the easiest slate in the NFL, based on opponents' winning percentages from last season, which could significantly aid a bounce-back campaign.
RELATED
According to Schatz, the 49ers top the list of potential worst-to-first candidates with a 35.8% chance to win the NFC West—the highest in the division. Their playoff odds stand at 62.4%, the third-best in the NFC. Much of that confidence is rooted in a more favorable schedule, expectations of improved health, and the belief that the 49ers' 2024 performance wasn't as bad as their record suggests.
"San Francisco finished the 2024 season ranked ninth in FPI (ESPN's Football Power Index)," Schatz wrote. "DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings at FTN didn't have the 49ers quite that high, but they were still 14th despite a losing record. Their DVOA of 6.7% was easily the best ever by an 11-loss team, going all the way back to 1978."
Additionally, the 49ers retained their foundational talent. The team secured long-term deals for quarterback Brock Purdy, tight end George Kittle, and linebacker Fred Warner, key pieces of the team's leadership core. They also supplemented their roster with 11 draft picks, including three defensive linemen expected to make an immediate impact.
"The 49ers will return a ton of key players from injuries this season, including running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and left tackle Trent Williams," Schatz continued. "While the Lions' defense dominated headlines because of its injuries in 2024, the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury. That's a clear indicator for improvement in 2025."
The lighter schedule is also why the FPI gives San Francisco the edge over the defending NFC West champion, the Los Angeles Rams, in the upcoming division race.
"The NFC South and AFC South make for an easy schedule outside of their division games, while the 49ers also get to play the Giants, Browns, and Bears," Schatz added. "The Rams have a much harder slate with matchups against the Eagles, Ravens, and Lions."
Related News
More San Francisco 49ers News
-
49ers vs. Colts PFF grades: Best and worst from the game, plus snap counts
The San Francisco 49ers improved their record to 11-4 after a 48-27 win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16. Today, Pro Football Focus released its grades and snap counts from the game. Which Niners stood out, and who needs more work? Highest-graded 49ers:... -
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan reveals key goal to beat Colts in Week 16
The San Francisco 49ers clinched a playoff berth Sunday after the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Detroit Lions. Still, the 49ers have plenty at stake heading into Monday night's Week 16 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. Entering the game, San Francisco is slotted as... -
49ers teammate reveals how Brock Purdy's return boosts the team
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings is certainly benefiting from Brock Purdy's return to the lineup following the quarterback's lengthy recovery from a turf toe injury. Since Purdy reclaimed his starting role, Jennings has been on a scoring tear, finding the end... -
ESPN simulation predicts 49ers' 2025 finish and playoff fate
ESPN analyst Seth Walder set out to project how the final three weeks of the 2025 NFL season—and the postseason—might unfold, turning to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) for answers. Out of 10,000 simulations, Walder highlighted simulation No. 5,002 in his feature for the...