I know. I'm being bold with my prediction. But with just hours before Roger Goodell steps up to the podium and announces who the third pick will be, Trey Lance seems to be the selection.
For the last month, betting odds have wavered, starting with Mac Jones as the heavy favorite once the trade was announced, then going to Justin Fields after his second pro day, and then once again becoming Mac Jones, before Trey Lance took over as the favorite on April 29th, just hours before the pick will be made.
The Press Conference
During the daunting press conference on Monday, Kyle Shanahan infamously stated, "I can't guarantee anybody in the world will be alive Sunday. So I can't guarantee who will be on our roster on Sunday. So that goes for all of us," when asked about any upcoming roster changes.
While many thought that the slight indications, such as the reference to prolific passers Drew Brees, referred to the pick being Mac Jones, Shanahan did note the stars of today's game, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, who seem to more closely resemble Lance.
The 49ers have tried to be as quiet as possible, as Dave Lombardi reported that only John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan know the pick.
The 49ers' decision regarding that #3 pick is completely sealed. It's only with Shanahan and Lynch. Not even the coordinators and assistants, who've been in draft meetings, know. Extraordinary levels of secrecy have set the table for this dramatic draft day finish
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) April 29, 2021
Over the past week, reports have surfaced that GM John Lynch and the 49ers scouting department prefer Trey Lance, while HC Kyle Shanahan believes in Mac Jones.
Ultimately, the quarterback pick will primarily be Shanahan's decision, but there are several factors that make it seem like Trey Lance will be the 49ers selection at #3.
Jimmy Garoppolo
If you hadn't heard yet, the most recent news around Jimmy Garoppolo involved him in an informal package the 49ers offered for Aaron Rodgers, which the Packers reportedly declined.
While Shanahan has been public with his displeasure about Garoppolo and his injury history, it seems that the 49ers still want him on their Week One roster as their starting quarterback.
Apart from the direct messages in the media from Shanahan and Lynch on Garoppolo being the Week One starter, the 49ers are reportedly asking for a first- or second-round pick in return for the incumbent starter, a price range that is unlikely to produce results due to Garoppolo's injuries last season.
In addition, the lack of suitors may prompt the 49ers to keep him on their roster, allowing them to boost his value during the upcoming season before shipping him off next year. So, the main question is: how does Trey Lance fit into the picture?
Well, if the 49ers were to keep Garoppolo, this would be extremely beneficial to Lance as he could sit back and learn for the year, allowing him to refine his footwork, throwing mechanics, and accuracy, while letting the 49ers compete with Jimmy at quarterback.
This would increase Garoppolo's trade value with a solid season and give Lance the necessary time to make the adjustment as a solid passer. It also provides a backup if Garoppolo gets hurt, which is an added benefit.
So, Trey Lance would help the 49ers with their future plans, and keep them in contention with Garoppolo at the moment.
Shanahan's Prototypical Quarterback
Perhaps one of the most interesting storylines has been Kyle Shanahan's prototypical quarterback.
Rumors have flown around, with quarterbacks coach John Beck recently outlining his thoughts, stating that Shanahan's main preferences are pocket presence and accuracy, which have been staples with his previous quarterbacks as well.
However, Shanahan has marveled at the ability of dual-threat quarterbacks, most notably during his press conference after last year's Buffalo game.
This added controversy has only stirred the pot more, but I believe that Lance will be the pick given the circumstances.
John Beck
While John Beck may have hinted at Shanahan's preferred quarterback mold, it has been well known that he has prepared Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson as their private quarterbacks coach.
Lance and Fields both ran plays set up by the 49ers on their second pro days with setups in play action, off bootlegs, as well as from under center. Beck's relationship with Shanahan could be a swaying factor in favor of either quarterback, and could help make a decision in a year during which there are no private workouts.
Closing Thoughts
At this moment, my prediction is that Trey Lance is a LOCK to go at three, but draft day always brings crazy moments.
The NFL Draft's first round begins at 5:00 pm PDT today, and while I have Lance as the draft's fourth-best quarterback, he would be an intriguing fit with the 49ers.
