Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Nick Mullens snuffed out any quarterback controversy, reminding a nation why he is a back-up with insecure, erroneous play that significantly contributed to the San Francisco 49ers 20-25 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. The Niners are hoping to have
Jimmy Garoppolo and
Raheem Mostert back this week and are once again favored by a lot of points at home against a team they should beat in the Miami Dolphins. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 11th, 2020 at 1:05 pm PST (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -8, o/u 46.5
Miami Dolphins
Miami fell to 1-3 following a 23-31 loss to Seattle. Despite the cries for Tua, head coach Brian Flores will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
After four weeks, the Dolphins offense is 23rd in yards per game, 20th in passing yards per game, 21st in rushing yards per game and 27th in points per game. Miami's defense is 28th in yards conceded per game, 28th in passing yards given up per game, 20th in rushing yards surrendered per game and 24th in points allowed per game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), 9th in total quarterback rating (QBR) with 5 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and zero fumbles lost. Miami ranks 26th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -3.5 and 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at -14.1 percent, 25th in offensive DAVE at -7.1 percent, and 31st in defensive DAVE at 8.4 percent. Miami's offensive line is ranked 11th in pass protection and 27th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 13th in adjusted sack rate and 24th in adjusted line yards. The Dolphins are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners outgained the Eagles 417 yards to 267 yards, and still lost the game with the critical turnovers from the quarterback and poor offensive line protection playing major roles.
After four weeks, the Niners offense is 11th in yards per game, 12th in passing yards per game, 11th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points per game. San Francisco's defense is 3rd in yard conceded per game, 2nd in passing yards given up per game, 15th in rushing yards surrendered per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 18th in DYAR, 7th in QBR with 4 touchdowns, zero interceptions and zero fumbles lost. San Francisco ranks 3rd with an ESPN FPI score of 5.5 and 9th in DAVE rating at 7.3 percent, 16th in offensive DAVE at 1.7 percent, and 5th in defensive DAVE at -5.5 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 21st in pass protection and 31st in run blocking, while its defensive line is 19th in adjusted sack rate and 5th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 2-2 ATS and 2-2 to the over/under.
Prediction
After missing a lot of easy opportunities and sustaining self-inflicted damage on their home field, the Niners and Kyle Shanahan are likely chomping at the bit to get the taste of last week's debacle out of their mouths and remind everyone why they belong in the discussion of contenders. But their ability to do so will once again be influenced by injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. Actions speak louder than words and Shanahan's pulling of Mullens for C.J. Beathard showed how disappointed he was in what happened last week, and if he gets Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert back to join a fully dominant
George Kittle, Miami's defense will get rolled.
If Jimmy and Raheem return for Week 5, we expect the 49ers to put up a lot of points. After getting shredded by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, San Francisco's defense has played at a high level against weak offenses in the Jets, Giants and the Eagles. Miami is no offensive juggernaut but does have a higher offensive rating than Philadelphia and Fitzpatrick may be more likely to connect with Mike Gesicki and Devante Parker with San Francisco's secondary decimated.
Barring unforeseen injuries or personnel changes, we anticipate that San Francisco and its offense get back on track in Week 5 and beat the Dolphins. Robert Saleh is doing an outstanding job despite all the injuries, but the Niners defense might be a bit overvalued after playing the 27th, 30th and 31st ranked offenses in the NFL and may be susceptible to giving up a decent chunk of points this Sunday.
Pick: Over 46.5
2020 Season ATS:
1-3
Poll
- What is your best bet for 49ers vs Dolphins on 10/11/20?
49ers -8
Dolphins +8
Over 46.5
Under 46.5
- 169 votes
Mac Jones is not the third-best quarterback on Mel Kiper's big board. He's not the fourth-best either. According to the ESPN analyst, the former Alabama quarterback is the fifth-best quarterback, but he could be the third player to come off the draft board on April 29.
The 2021 NFL Draft is just two weeks away, and the San Francisco 49ers own the No. 3 overall pick. If Kiper had to put a percentage on the chances of each of the three quarterback prospects expected to be available at that spot landing with the Bay Area team, he would say 80 percent to Jones, 15 percent to Justin Lance of North Dakota State, and five percent to Justin Fields of Ohio State.
"All the buzz I've heard is that 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan traded up nine spots
With so many smokescreens and teams keeping their strategies close to the vest, it's tough to believe anything you hear when it comes to pre-draft rumors and speculation. Everyone in the media feels the San Francisco 49ers traded up to the No. 3 spot for Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, whether they can make sense of it or not.
Much of that is based on what they hear from around the league. Their colleagues and other teams feel Jones might be the pick, despite the overwhelming opinion that the selection would be a reach.
NFL Media analyst Bucky Brooks doesn't even view Jones as worthy of a first-round pick, much less No. 3 overall.
"Perhaps the Alabama quarterback is a secret member of The Avengers, operating like Tony Stark as Iron Man,"
File this under interesting pre-draft tidbits. San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan were in attendance for Alabama's pro day last week. That made headlines because the duo opted to watch quarterback Mac Jones rather than attend Ohio State's pro day to watch Justin Fields. Paired with Chris Simms' speculation that San Francisco might have traded up to the No. 3 spot for Jones, that spurred others to seriously consider a Jones-to-49ers scenario.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban recently joined the Dan Patrick Show and shared that neither Lynch nor Shanahan asked him anything about his former quarterback, who helped guide the Crimson Tide to a national championship. And it wasn't because they didn't have an opportunity to do
Much has been made of Mac Jones' DUI in 2017. Some would say that not enough has been made of it while evaluating the former Alabama quarterback's character. However, a recent feature from NFL.com sheds some light on the incident and how it altered Jones' path.
At the time, Jones was a redshirt freshman and the third quarterback on the depth chart. In the very early hours of November 3, 2017, Jones was involved in a car accident, underwent a sobriety test, and was then arrested for driving under the influence. He was also charged with improper ID by a minor. Fortunately, no one was injured in the incident.
"We are disappointed in
