Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins odds and pick - Week 5, 2020

Oct 7, 2020 at 5:12 PM0


Nick Mullens snuffed out any quarterback controversy, reminding a nation why he is a back-up with insecure, erroneous play that significantly contributed to the San Francisco 49ers 20-25 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. The Niners are hoping to have Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert back this week and are once again favored by a lot of points at home against a team they should beat in the Miami Dolphins. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday October 11th, 2020 at 1:05 pm PST (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -8, o/u 46.5

Miami Dolphins
Miami fell to 1-3 following a 23-31 loss to Seattle. Despite the cries for Tua, head coach Brian Flores will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
After four weeks, the Dolphins offense is 23rd in yards per game, 20th in passing yards per game, 21st in rushing yards per game and 27th in points per game. Miami's defense is 28th in yards conceded per game, 28th in passing yards given up per game, 20th in rushing yards surrendered per game and 24th in points allowed per game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), 9th in total quarterback rating (QBR) with 5 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and zero fumbles lost. Miami ranks 26th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -3.5 and 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at -14.1 percent, 25th in offensive DAVE at -7.1 percent, and 31st in defensive DAVE at 8.4 percent. Miami's offensive line is ranked 11th in pass protection and 27th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 13th in adjusted sack rate and 24th in adjusted line yards. The Dolphins are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 to the over/under.

San Francisco 49ers
The Niners outgained the Eagles 417 yards to 267 yards, and still lost the game with the critical turnovers from the quarterback and poor offensive line protection playing major roles.

After four weeks, the Niners offense is 11th in yards per game, 12th in passing yards per game, 11th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points per game. San Francisco's defense is 3rd in yard conceded per game, 2nd in passing yards given up per game, 15th in rushing yards surrendered per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 18th in DYAR, 7th in QBR with 4 touchdowns, zero interceptions and zero fumbles lost. San Francisco ranks 3rd with an ESPN FPI score of 5.5 and 9th in DAVE rating at 7.3 percent, 16th in offensive DAVE at 1.7 percent, and 5th in defensive DAVE at -5.5 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 21st in pass protection and 31st in run blocking, while its defensive line is 19th in adjusted sack rate and 5th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 2-2 ATS and 2-2 to the over/under.

Prediction
After missing a lot of easy opportunities and sustaining self-inflicted damage on their home field, the Niners and Kyle Shanahan are likely chomping at the bit to get the taste of last week's debacle out of their mouths and remind everyone why they belong in the discussion of contenders. But their ability to do so will once again be influenced by injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. Actions speak louder than words and Shanahan's pulling of Mullens for C.J. Beathard showed how disappointed he was in what happened last week, and if he gets Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert back to join a fully dominant George Kittle, Miami's defense will get rolled.
If Jimmy and Raheem return for Week 5, we expect the 49ers to put up a lot of points. After getting shredded by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, San Francisco's defense has played at a high level against weak offenses in the Jets, Giants and the Eagles. Miami is no offensive juggernaut but does have a higher offensive rating than Philadelphia and Fitzpatrick may be more likely to connect with Mike Gesicki and Devante Parker with San Francisco's secondary decimated.
Barring unforeseen injuries or personnel changes, we anticipate that San Francisco and its offense get back on track in Week 5 and beat the Dolphins. Robert Saleh is doing an outstanding job despite all the injuries, but the Niners defense might be a bit overvalued after playing the 27th, 30th and 31st ranked offenses in the NFL and may be susceptible to giving up a decent chunk of points this Sunday. Pick: Over 46.5

2020 Season ATS:
1-3

Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers vs Dolphins on 10/11/20?
  • 49ers -8
  • Dolphins +8
  • Over 46.5
  • Under 46.5
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



6 teams with better odds than the 49ers to add Deshaun Watson before Week 1

By David Bonilla
Jan 13, 2021

Despite the fractured relationship, the Houston Texans remain the favorites to have Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback to kick off the 2021 season. However, should the relationship be damaged beyond repair, a trade could be in the quarterback's future if he chooses to force a divorce. San Francisco 49ers fans would love to see what Watson paired with head coach Kyle Shanahan would mean for opposing defenses. However, that would also mean giving up a lot in terms of compensation to acquire the young playmaker, and oddsmakers have five teams — other than the Texans — listed as more likely destinations for the disgruntled quarterback. Below are the 10 favorites to have Watson on their rosters during Week 1 of the 2021 season, per Bovada and

Read the Full Article


49ers now have the 3rd-best odds to land Deshaun Watson

By David Bonilla
Jan 16, 2021

Earlier in the week, six teams — including the Houston Texans — had better odds than the San Francisco 49ers to have Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback for Week 1 of the 2021 season. Now, only two teams — still including the Texans — sit ahead of head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad, according to oddsmakers. The relationship between Watson and the Texans has soured. The quarterback is frustrated that he has not been included in major decisions despite the team indicating that he would.

Read the Full Article


49ers now own the 5th-best odds to have Deshaun Watson for the 2021 season

By David Bonilla
Jan 19, 2021

Odds Shark shared the most recent odds for which team would have quarterback Deshaun Watson on its roster at the start of the 2021 season. Just days ago, Bovada gave the San Francisco 49ers the third-best odds to end up with Watson. Oddsmakers now have four teams — the Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and Chicago Bears — ahead of San Francisco. Below are the 10 teams with the best odds of having Watson as their Week 1 starter, according to Bovada. Texans +170 Dolphins +300 Jets +300 Bears

Read the Full Article

Featured

More Featured Stories

More by Winston Chung

All Articles by Winston Chung

More Articles

All Articles
Share 49erswebzone