Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Nick Mullens snuffed out any quarterback controversy, reminding a nation why he is a back-up with insecure, erroneous play that significantly contributed to the San Francisco 49ers 20-25 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. The Niners are hoping to have Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert back this week and are once again favored by a lot of points at home against a team they should beat in the Miami Dolphins. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday October 11th, 2020 at 1:05 pm PST (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -8, o/u 46.5
Miami Dolphins
Miami fell to 1-3 following a 23-31 loss to Seattle. Despite the cries for Tua, head coach Brian Flores will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
After four weeks, the Dolphins offense is 23rd in yards per game, 20th in passing yards per game, 21st in rushing yards per game and 27th in points per game. Miami's defense is 28th in yards conceded per game, 28th in passing yards given up per game, 20th in rushing yards surrendered per game and 24th in points allowed per game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), 9th in total quarterback rating (QBR) with 5 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and zero fumbles lost. Miami ranks 26th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -3.5 and 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at -14.1 percent, 25th in offensive DAVE at -7.1 percent, and 31st in defensive DAVE at 8.4 percent. Miami's offensive line is ranked 11th in pass protection and 27th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 13th in adjusted sack rate and 24th in adjusted line yards. The Dolphins are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners outgained the Eagles 417 yards to 267 yards, and still lost the game with the critical turnovers from the quarterback and poor offensive line protection playing major roles.
After four weeks, the Niners offense is 11th in yards per game, 12th in passing yards per game, 11th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points per game. San Francisco's defense is 3rd in yard conceded per game, 2nd in passing yards given up per game, 15th in rushing yards surrendered per game, and 3rd in points allowed per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 18th in DYAR, 7th in QBR with 4 touchdowns, zero interceptions and zero fumbles lost. San Francisco ranks 3rd with an ESPN FPI score of 5.5 and 9th in DAVE rating at 7.3 percent, 16th in offensive DAVE at 1.7 percent, and 5th in defensive DAVE at -5.5 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 21st in pass protection and 31st in run blocking, while its defensive line is 19th in adjusted sack rate and 5th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 2-2 ATS and 2-2 to the over/under.
Prediction
After missing a lot of easy opportunities and sustaining self-inflicted damage on their home field, the Niners and Kyle Shanahan are likely chomping at the bit to get the taste of last week's debacle out of their mouths and remind everyone why they belong in the discussion of contenders. But their ability to do so will once again be influenced by injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. Actions speak louder than words and Shanahan's pulling of Mullens for C.J. Beathard showed how disappointed he was in what happened last week, and if he gets Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert back to join a fully dominant
George Kittle, Miami's defense will get rolled.
If Jimmy and Raheem return for Week 5, we expect the 49ers to put up a lot of points. After getting shredded by
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, San Francisco's defense has played at a high level against weak offenses in the Jets, Giants and the Eagles. Miami is no offensive juggernaut but does have a higher offensive rating than Philadelphia and Fitzpatrick may be more likely to connect with Mike Gesicki and Devante Parker with San Francisco's secondary decimated.
Barring unforeseen injuries or personnel changes, we anticipate that San Francisco and its offense get back on track in Week 5 and beat the Dolphins. Robert Saleh is doing an outstanding job despite all the injuries, but the Niners defense might be a bit overvalued after playing the 27th, 30th and 31st ranked offenses in the NFL and may be susceptible to giving up a decent chunk of points this Sunday.
Pick: Over 46.5
2020 Season ATS:
1-3
Poll
- What is your best bet for 49ers vs Dolphins on 10/11/20?
49ers -8
Dolphins +8
Over 46.5
Under 46.5
- 169 votes
On Tuesday, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan provided an update on Brock Purdy. The second-year quarterback underwent surgery on March 10 to repair the tear of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow, an injury he suffered in the NFC Championship Game in January.
Purdy is recovering well. There have been no setbacks as the quarterback works his way to increasing his workload.
"He's doing good," Shanahan said of his quarterback's recovery. "Still staying the same. [He's] on schedule."
The 49ers always believed that Purdy would be able to start throwing a football again sometime in early June. That's next week. The good news is that nothing about that timeline has changed.
"I think he's allowed to throw sometime
On Tuesday, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said he remains "pretty optimistic" that quarterback Brock Purdy would be available for Week 1 of the 2023 season. The 23-year-old underwent surgery on March 10 to repair the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) tear in his right elbow.
Purdy is hopeful to be on the field with his teammates against the Pittsburgh Steelers on September 10.
"Feeling good and taking it one day at a time," Purdy told reporters after Tuesday's practice, the second of organized team activities (OTAs). The quarterback obviously did not participate. However, the 49ers remain hopeful that Purdy can start some limited throwing
The San Francisco 49ers have entrenched themselves in quarterback controversy for yet another offseason after starter Brock Purdy suffered a torn UCL that is expected to sideline him for six months, while the team signed former Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold to compete with 2021 No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance.
There have been several rumors that have floated around regarding Lance's future with the 49ers after the arrival of Darnold, but several of them were squashed when the organization elected against moving their former first-round pick during the 2023 NFL Draft, keeping both quarterbacks for the beginning of the offseason program.
As organized team activities(OTAs) begin, Lance and Darnold are fighting for what could be the Week 1 starting job,
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and quarterbacks Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold spoke with reporters after Tuesday's practice, the second of organized team activities (OTAs). Here is everything they had to say.
Transcript provided by the San Francisco 49ers Communications staff.
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan
WR Jauan Jennings was working on the side field, did he have any issues?
"He just had a little tightness. We're being safe with him. Same with [WR Brandon Aiyuk] B. A., both of them, same boat."
What's the thought process behind that last drill that you guys do? 11-on-11, no helmets.
"Just try to ease them into that. It's something that I never
