San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks odds and pick - Week 17, 2019

In a win dedicated to the late brother of C.J. Beathard, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business on Saturday night, edging the Los Angeles Rams in a 34-31 shootout, and will now travel to Seattle to take on the wounded Seahawks in a contest to decide the NFC West crown and the top seed in the NFC. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday December 29th, 2019 at 5:20 PM PST (NBC)
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Line: 49ers -3, o/u 47

Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks' vulnerability at home this season continued in their 13-27 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, also losing Chris Carson, C.J. Prosise and Duane Brown for the season in the process.

After sixteen weeks, Seattle ranks 7th in Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA at 14.0 percent (represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games), 6th in weighted offensive DVOA at 14.7 percent and 16th in weighted defensive DVOA at -0.2 percent.

The Seahawks' offense ranks 7th with 376.2 yards per game, 9th with 25.6 points per game, 11th with 237.9 passing yards per game, 3rd with 138.3 rushing yards per game, 10th with 5.8 offensive yards per play and 21st with 28.36 seconds per play (pace).

Seattle's defense is 26th in giving up 380.5 yards per game, 21st in yielding 24.8 points per game, 27th with 263.5 passing yards conceded per game, 24th in allowing 117.0 rushing yards per game and 26th with 5.9 defensive yards per play .

The Seahawks' offensive line is ranked 19th in run blocking and 26th in pass protection. Seattle's defensive line ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards and 31st in adjusted sack rate. Russell Wilson ranks 5th with a DYAR of 1,122 and 7th with a total QBR of 68.0. The Seahawks have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 2.6 and are 7-8 ATS, including failing to cover in three straight, and 8-7 to the over/under so far this season.

San Francisco 49ers
Through sixteen weeks, San Francisco is ranked 5th in weighted DVOA at 24.0 percent, 11th in weighted offensive DVOA at 3.4 percent and 3rd in weighted defensive DVOA at -18.2 percent.

The 49ers' offense is 6th with 379.9 yards per game, 2nd with 30.2 points per game, 14th with 234.8 passing yards per game, 2nd with 145.1 rushing yards per game, 6th with 5.9 offensive yards per play and 26th with 28.72 seconds per play.

San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 277.4 yards per game, 8th by conceding 19.3 points per game, 1st in giving up 165.6 passing yards per game, 17th in yielding 111.8 rushing yards per game and 1st with 4.6 defensive yards per play .

The Niners' offensive line is ranked 8th in run blocking and 15th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 12th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 13th with a DYAR of 634 and 15th with a total QBR of 57.4. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 7.3 and are 8-6-1 ATS and 8-7 to the over/under this season.

Prediction
Even though Seattle sustained significant injuries which led to it signing Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin earlier this week, Niners fans should know better than to count out the Seahawks as long as Russell Wilson is behind center and playing in a prime time game.

That said, Wilson's performance has cooled off some since his last meeting with the 49ers when he was ranked 1st in DYAR and total QBR after Week 9, now ranked 5th in DYAR and 7th in total QBR after Week 16, possibly a function of his offensive line play falling to 26th (down from 20th after Week 9) in pass protection and now likely to get worse after the loss of Duane Brown.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have also dealt with injuries and regressed in some areas since their last contest with Seattle, including the defense giving up more points, getting fewer sacks and interceptions the past few weeks and the offensive line play declining (currently 15th in pass protection, down from 5th after Week 9), contributing to Jimmy Garoppolo being sacked six times in Week 16. The Niners' offensive line will have to play better in Week 17 for them to win.

We predicted that the 49ers would split the season series with Seattle in our preseason analysis and are sticking to that prediction. While we normally would have guessed that the Niners would have won their home game against Seattle and lost their road game at CenturyLink Field, 2019 has seen both of these teams perform better on the road and worse at home from an against-the-spread (ATS) perspective. Seattle is 2-5 ATS at home (and one of those ATS wins against Tampa Bay was going the other way all game until overtime) and San Francisco is 5-2 ATS on the road this season.

San Francisco will have one more day to prepare for this game and Seattle is dealing with injuries at key positions, but the number one reason why we feel confident that San Francisco will win and cover in Seattle is because of a single player who was absent for the Week 10 match up that will be on the field in Week 17: The People's Tight End, George Kittle. Pick: 49ers -3


Season
SU: 7-8
ATS: 7-8

Poll

• What is your best bet for Niners at Seahawks on 12/29/19?
• 49ers -3
  72%
• Over 47
  11%
• Seahawks +3
  9%
• Under 47
  8%
• 914 votes