Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports


San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers odds and pick - Week 12, 2019

Nov 19, 2019 at 2:43 PM1


The San Francisco 49ers showed their grit in overcoming a sixteen point deficit and the elusive play of Kyler Murray to secure a ten point victory over the Arizona Cardinals in a game where the final score belied how tightly contested it was. Now the Niners will have to conjure up even more resiliency with the possible loss of Dee Ford in anticipation of facing a well rested Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in another prime time match up on Sunday night. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

When: Sunday November 24th, 2019 at 5:20pm PST (NBC)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: 49ers -3, o/u 46

Green Bay Packers
Prior to their Week 11 bye, the Packers defeated the Carolina Panthers 24-16 at Lambeau Field.

After eleven weeks, Green Bay ranks 10th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at 13.4 percent (represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games), 5th in offensive weighted DVOA at 17.5 percent and 22nd in weighted defensive DVOA at 4.5 percent.

The Packers' offense ranks 17th with 356.0 yards per game, 9th with 25.0 points per game, 11th with 253.9 passing yards per game and 18th with 102.1 rushing yards per game. Green Bay's defense is 28th in giving up 384.7 yards per game, 14th in yielding 20.5 points per game, 23rd with 257.8 passing yards conceded per game and 25th in allowing 126.9 rushing yards per game.

The Packers' offensive line is ranked 8th in run blocking and 10th in pass protection. Green Bay's defensive line ranks 32nd in adjusted line yards and 10th in adjusted sack rate. Aaron Rodgers ranks 6th with a DYAR of 808 and 15th with a total QBR of 56.5. The Packers have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 4.6 and are 7-3 ATS and 5-5 to the over/under so far this season.

San Francisco 49ers
Despite two more red-zone interceptions, Jimmy Garoppolo stepped up when it mattered most, aided by big performances from Ross Dwelley, Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk, to secure the 36-26 win in Week 11, though the game was neck-and-neck until the final few minutes.

Through eleven weeks, San Francisco is ranked 5th in weighted DVOA at 24.7 percent, 16th in weighted offensive DVOA at -0.8 percent and 2nd in weighted defensive DVOA at -25.0 percent.

The 49ers' offense is 5th with 386.6 yards per game, 2nd with 29.5 points per game, 15th with 237.6 passing yards per game and 2nd with 149.0 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 2nd in allowing 253.0 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 15.5 points per game, 1st in giving up 142.5 passing yards per game and 20th in yielding 110.5 rushing yards per game.

The Niners' offensive line is ranked 10th in run blocking and 7th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 18th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 15th with a DYAR of 308 and 13th with a total QBR of 57.7. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 6.4 and are 5-4-1 ATS and 5-5 to the over/under this season.

Prediction
After their last trip to California that started with the Green Bay Packers arriving to LA two days early and ended in a 11-26 loss to Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers, Aaron Rodgers proclaimed that loss to be a wake up call, a slice of humble pie and called out teammates for how they spent their 48 hours in LA prior to that Week 9 loss. Based on that experience, we are anticipating that the Packers will have a different attitude for this California road trip against one of the top teams in the NFC.

Having already lost Ronald Blair III for the season, the Niners may be without edge rusher Dee Ford for a couple of weeks, creating another challenge for a unit that has now conceded 24 or more points in three straight games to mobile quarterbacks, now preparing to take on one of the best in the game.


Jimmy Garoppolo's red-zone interceptions are unnerving and have created more work for the team, but he has shown the ability to move past the turnovers to win games. Moving forward, however, Garoppolo will not be able to get away with multiple turnovers against top competition and the rest of the Niners' schedule includes some of the best teams in the NFL.

While Emmanuel Sanders continues to deal with a rib injury and George Kittle's status for Sunday is still up in the air, San Francisco should find ways to score against Green Bay's 22nd ranked (in weighted DVOA) defense.

The key to predicting this game depends on whether one thinks Aaron Rodgers will be able to score against the Niners' defense. Rodgers was born and raised in Northern California, attended Cal and will always remember San Francisco passing on him to take Alex Smith with the number one pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. He will be coming off of a bye, will do everything in his power to make sure his team doesn't make the same mistakes it made on its last trip to California and will have a healthy Davante Adams, who was born and raised in Palo Alto and attended Palo Alto High School and Fresno State University.

The Green Bay Packers have won six of the previous eight matchups against NFC teams in the week after the bye, 16 of their last 23 (.696), including wins in seven of the last ten in games immediately following their bye week. We predicted Green Bay to win this game in our preseason analysis and are sticking with it but don't feel super confident in this pick because Green Bay will be an underdog that attracts a lot of public interest this week, which usually does not bode well for a cover. We do, however, expect Aaron Rodgers to step up in prime time as he usually does and get his points.

San Francisco's games have gone over the total in four straight, and anticipating Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo to find ways to score against the Packers, we see this trend continuing. Pick: Over 46

Season
SU: 5-5
ATS: 3-7

Poll

  • What is your best bet for Niners vs Packers on 11/24/19?
  • 49ers -3
    57%
  • Over 46
    23%
  • Packers +3
    15%
  • Under 46
    5%
  • 1,550 votes
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


1 Comment

  • Daniners
    Good luck with that pick. GB remains one of the most overrated teams in NFL. OL is a sieve and D is giving up way too many pts and yardage. Niners win by 14 in lopsided game.
    Nov 20, 2019 at 7:07 AM
    0

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



6 teams with better odds than the 49ers to add Deshaun Watson before Week 1

By David Bonilla
Jan 13, 2021

Despite the fractured relationship, the Houston Texans remain the favorites to have Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback to kick off the 2021 season. However, should the relationship be damaged beyond repair, a trade could be in the quarterback's future if he chooses to force a divorce. San Francisco 49ers fans would love to see what Watson paired with head coach Kyle Shanahan would mean for opposing defenses. However, that would also mean giving up a lot in terms of compensation to acquire the young playmaker, and oddsmakers have five teams — other than the Texans — listed as more likely destinations for the disgruntled quarterback. Below are the 10 favorites to have Watson on their rosters during Week 1 of the 2021 season, per Bovada and

Read the Full Article


49ers now have the 3rd-best odds to land Deshaun Watson

By David Bonilla
Jan 16, 2021

Earlier in the week, six teams — including the Houston Texans — had better odds than the San Francisco 49ers to have Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback for Week 1 of the 2021 season. Now, only two teams — still including the Texans — sit ahead of head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad, according to oddsmakers. The relationship between Watson and the Texans has soured. The quarterback is frustrated that he has not been included in major decisions despite the team indicating that he would.

Read the Full Article


Divisional Round Predictions: Packers, Saints advance in the NFC

By Site Staff
Jan 15, 2021

Each week, 49ers Webzone fans predict weekly game-winners within our annual NFL Pick 'em contest. The upcoming schedule of games features eight opponents facing off in four Divisional Round matchups. Of all the upcoming game predictions, the most lopsided result comes from Saturday's matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers. Voting has 97 percent of fans believing the Packers will earn the victory. When it comes to the predictions, the closest matchup is between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, with 53 percent selecting the Saints to win the game. Update: As of Saturday morning, the Buccaneers have moved ahead of the Saints as

Read the Full Article

Featured

More Featured Stories

More by Winston Chung

All Articles by Winston Chung

More Articles

All Articles
Share 49erswebzone