Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports


Pro Football Network’s advanced metrics support Jimmy Garoppolo’s excellent primetime performance

James Aguirre
Nov 6, 2019 at 12:32 PM1


The San Francisco 49ers opened up Week 9 of the 2019 NFL season by defeating the Arizona Cardinals 28-25. Jimmy Garoppolo's magnificent performance dominated the post-game conversation. The narrative that formed was based around the fact that Garoppolo finally won a game in which the running game was not clicking, and the defense was not its usual, dominant self. After Kyler Murray connected with fellow rookie, Andy Isabella, for an 88-yard touchdown to cut the deficit down to three (after a two-point conversion), the 49ers needed an answer. Garoppolo put the team on his shoulders and executed a game-sealing drive, which killed the 4:47 left on the clock to lead the 49ers to an 8-0 start.

Garoppolo played terrific in this game, making accurate throws from a "muddy" pocket and throwing his receivers open with anticipation. The box score for Garoppolo looked spectacular, as well. He went 28-of-37 (75%) for 317 yards passing, 8.5 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Box scores can be misleading at times, but that was not the case here, according to Pro Football Network's Offensive Share Metric (OSM).

PFN formulates OSM by looking at a combination of mostly the NFL's very own NextGen stats and some others. Doing this allows us to see how well a quarterback or receiver did with what only he could control. OSM accounts for things like air yards, completion probabilities, and differential, aggressiveness, and more. If a quarterback performed poorly in these areas, then it is logical to conclude that he is not the reason for his team's offensive production. Instead, we would find that others on the offense played a more significant role in the success.

Click here to read more about OSM over at Pro Football Network.

In laymen's terms, OSM captures how much a player contributed to his performance. The higher the OSM, the less he relied on his teammates for his success and vice versa. In the Thursday night contest, Garoppolo posted his second-highest OSM grade of the season. Based on the scale creator Brett Yarris made, his 30.26 mark received a grade of "very good." Up to this point, Garoppolo had posted the following OSM grades:

Week 1: 12.87 (QB29)
Week 2: 19.63 (QB21)
Week 3: 37.33 (QB3)
Week 4: BYE
Week 5: 26.94 (QB10)
Week 6: 19.63 (QB22)
Week 7: 21.07 (QB16)
Week 8: 26.35 (QB15)

According to NFL's Next Gen stats, Garoppolo finished with the second-highest completion percentage (75.7), third-highest completion percentage above expectation (7.3), second-most touchdowns, 10th most completed air yards (6.5) and highest QB rating (136.9) in Week 9. This was his best game of the year as he posted the best or second-best figure in each of the above metrics.

As I mentioned above, the film supports his high level of play, as well. He did a terrific job of navigating the pocket, making accurate throws from a "muddy" pocket, throwing with anticipation, and throwing his receivers open.

While the detractors will say this was "only the Arizona Cardinals," you can only use that excuse for so long before you have to buy into the team as a contender. We know San Francisco has arguably the best play-caller in the NFL, a stout run game, terrific pass rush, and suffocating secondary. The only question mark was if Garoppolo could put the team on his back when needed. Well, the film, box score, and PFN's advanced analytics (OSM) say he is 1/1 thus far in doing just that. When Garoppolo plays like he did last Thursday, there isn't a team in the league the 49ers can't beat.
  • James Aguirre
  • Written by:
    Husband and father of two. I'm a fantasy football and NFL betting writer for the Pro Football Network (@PFN365). You can find all of my work there.
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


1 Comment

  • kt49er
    When the Cardinals scored on the 88-yard touchdown from Murray to Isabella, that made the score 28-25. A 3 point difference.
    Nov 6, 2019 at 5:34 PM
    0
    Response: You're 100% correct. It's been fixed. Thank you!

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



Rapoport discusses Jimmy Garoppolo's inconsistent performance during 49ers-Cardinals

By David Bonilla
Sep 14, 2020

NFL insider Ian Rapoport seemed a little surprised to hear about Monday morning's local criticisms of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo following the San Francisco 49ers' Week 1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. "Is that what's going on this morning? Is it Jimmy G is terrible?" Rapoport asked on KNBR's Murph & Mac show Monday morning. While Garoppolo's numbers, at first glance, look comparable to his Cardinals counterpart, Kyler Murray, anyone who watched the game knows that the latter was the better quarterback on the football field at Levi's Stadium on Sunday. Much of that had to do with the nearly 100 rushing yards Murray had against the 49ers defense. You throw out his two kneel-downs to end the game, and he is right at the century mark. "I

Read the Full Article


Jimmy Garoppolo talks 49ers-Cardinals performance, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan Reed, injuries, knee brace

By Site Staff
Sep 16, 2020

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo spoke with reporters before Wednesday's practice as the team prepares for Sunday's road game against the New York Jets. Here is everything he had to say. Transcript provided by the San Francisco 49ers Communications staff. How familiar are you with former New England Patriots WR Mohamed Sanu and what do you think he can bring to the wide receiver core? "I've seen a lot of tape on him, just from watching [head coach] Kyle's [Shanahan] offense in the past and things that he's done in it. Heard tremendous things from all the coaches, so we're excited to get him in here. It'll be a quick turnaround, but he's been in this offense before, so hopefully he could pick things up right

Read the Full Article


49ers' Kyle Shanahan admires Jimmy Garoppolo's 'grit' in performance vs. Jets

By David Bonilla
Sep 21, 2020

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was proud of how his quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, performed on Sunday against the New York Jets before being forced to miss the second half due to a high-ankle sprain. The injury, however, occurred well before halftime. The quarterback played on his injured ankle for much of the first half before being forced to sit out the remainder of the game. Garoppolo endured much criticism following his lackluster Week 1 performance in a loss against the Arizona Cardinals. He finished Sunday's game having completed 87.5 percent of his passes for 131 yards with two touchdowns and a passer rating of 140.4. If that's how Garoppolo performs while playing with an injury, Shanahan joked that maybe the 49ers should change their pregame

Read the Full Article

Featured

More Featured Stories

More by James Aguirre

  • No more articles found

More Articles

All Articles
Share 49erswebzone