The San Francisco 49ers, Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh got their signature win of 2018 in finally beating the Seattle Seahawks by the score of 26-23 in overtime. Not unlike the end of the 2017 season, the Niners are playing their best football and beating playoff teams in late December but can that continue against the vaunted, Monsters of the Midway defense of the Chicago Bears? Here we discuss the odds and preview from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday December 23, 2018 at 1:05pm PST (FOX)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: Bears -4, total at 43
Chicago Bears
The Bears clinched the NFC North with their 24-17 win over the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field, fielding one of the most ferocious defenses in the league, making them a dark horse Super Bowl Contender. Chicago's offense is ranked 22nd in yards per game, 6th in points per game, 22nd in weighted offense, 22nd in passing yards per game and 14th in rushing yards per game.
The Bears' defense is 3rd in yards and points allowed per game, 1st in weighted defense, 10th in passing yards conceded per game and 2nd in rushing yards given up per game.
Mitchell Trubisky is 21st with a DYAR of 309 and 5th with a total QBR of 70.9. The Bears are 4th in weighted DVOA, 10-4 against the spread (ATS), 8-6 to the over/under, 3-3 ATS as the away team, 2-3 ATS as an away favorite, 4-2 to the over/under as the away team and 3-2 to the over/under as an away favorite this season.
The Niners have beaten two playoff contending teams in consecutive weeks and are playing some of their best football of the season on both sides of the ball, making them a tough out no matter who they play at this point. San Francisco's offense is ranked 13th in yards per game, 22nd in points per game, 27th in weighted offense, 15th in passing yards per game and 10th in rushing yards per game.
The 49ers' defense is 12th in yards given up per game, 26th in points allowed per game, 20th in weighted defense, 12th in passing yards surrendered per game and 14th in rushing yards conceded per game.
Nick Mullens is 23rd with a DYAR of 269 and 18th with a total QBR of 57.9. The Niners are 27th in weighted DVOA, 5-9 ATS, 8-6 to the over/under, 3-1 ATS as a home underdog and 1-3 to the over/under as a home underdog this season.
Prediction
At first glance, it may seem like the Bears should crush the Niners in this contest but the reality is that the Niners offense is pretty comparable to the Bears offense, with the Bears' points per game inflated by their defensive touchdowns.
The Bears do have the most dominant defense in the league but one could argue that Robert Saleh has got the Niners' defense playing at its best and that strong defense has been a factor in their last two wins as underdogs.
These teams have split the last four meetings both straight up (SU) and ATS, and we see this game being close. With the Niners playing at their most competitive level all season and the Bears potentially set for a let down after clinching their division and a long way to go for the number two seed, we see the best betting value in taking the points with the 49ers, though expect the Bears to win the game. Pick: 49ers +4
Season
ATS: 4-9
SU: 8-5
