The San Francisco 49ers were doomed by five turnovers and lost as a favorite at home to one of the worst teams in the league last Sunday, and things don't get any easier as they face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau under the prime time lights of Monday Night Football. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Monday October 15th at 5:15pm PT (ESPN)
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Odds: Packers -9.5, total 46.5
Green Bay Packers
Despite Aaron Rodgers' 442 yard, three touchdown and zero interception performance last Sunday, the Packers lost as favorites to Detroit at Ford Field and have under-performed the first quarter of the season. The Packers' offense is 10th with 401 points per game and 18th with 23.0 points per game, good for a 7th ranked offensive DVOA-Adjusted for Variation Early (DAVE) rating of 10.5 percent. Green Bay has the 10th most passing yards per game and 19th most rushing yards per game.
The Packer's defense is 4th with 313.8 yards given up per game and 14th with 22.8 points given up per game, yielding the 2nd fewest passing yards per game and 15th fewest rushing yards per game. Green Bay is 16th with a defensive DAVE rating of 0.2 percent.
The Pack is 11th in total DAVE at 6.5 percent and is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) this season.
The Niners had more offensive production than the Cardinals last week and have been able to move the ball all season, but they continue to have red zone woes. San Francisco's offense is 15th in the NFL with 378 yards per game and 23.6 points per game, earning a 28th ranked offensive DAVE rating of -13.2 percent. The 49ers have the 22nd most passing yards per game and the 4th most rushing yards per game.
San Francisco's defense is 11th in allowing 348.4 yards per game and 29th with 29.2 points scored against them per game, giving up the 15th fewest passing yards per game and 7th fewest rushing yards per game. The Niners are 25th with a defensive DAVE rating of 3.3 percent.
The 49ers are 31st with a total DAVE of -20.2 percent and are 1-4 ATS this season.
Prediction
This is another game where so-called sharp bettors are expecting San Francisco to keep this closer than the number.
But we think this is another game where it might not make sense to overthink things or get cute, and sometimes when it walks and talks like Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field on Monday Night, then it is Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field on Monday Night.
Yes, the Niners are coming off of a humiliating beatdown at home where they statistically outperformed the underdog team that won, and they could be primed for a bounce-back game, but there is a reason they lost by double digits. Five turnovers is a sign of poor execution and C.J. Beathard now has two interceptions in each game he has started. How can one expect him to be less turnover prone in a prime time game against one of the best NFL quarterbacks of all time and a team coming off their own embarrassing loss to a division foe?
The Packers' offense and defense are slightly better and their quarterback is much better than the 49ers' and we expect the Green Bay defense to play angry in this game, not unlike they did against Buffalo, leading to a comfortable victory, 34-20. Pick: Packers -9.5.
Season
2-3 ATS
4-1 SU
