Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports


Why the 49ers should steer clear of Le’Veon Bell in 2019

Bobby Horne
Jul 18, 2018 at 5:36 PM


The San Francisco 49ers and disgruntled Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell will continue to be connected to each other throughout the 2018 season and into 2019 free agency for no other reason than money.

Bell's contract situation with the Steelers hasn't been a smooth process as he recently declined the Steelers' final offer of 5-years, $70 million and chose to play on the $14.5 million franchise tag for the second year in a row. It's safe to say that in 2019 he will likely be on the market as it seems there is bad blood between the two parties.


Per Over the Cap, the 49ers are projected roughly $75 million in salary cap space after factoring in the rollover from 2018. That's a lot of money, certainly enough to pay Bell whatever he wants. But should they? No.

Don't get me wrong here, I firmly believe that Bell is the best RB in the league and think that even the $14.5 million he is making on the franchise tag is not enough. However, there is more to consider than just paying Bell because he's good.

Bell is one of the most productive players in NFL history, averaging 1,599 total yards and eight touchdowns per season during his five-year career. Will the on-field production carry over from Pittsburgh to San Francisco? If so, is it enough to justify paying Bell double 49ers running back Jerick McKinnon's $7.5 million annual average salary?

Can Bell have similar success in San Francisco? I don't think so. That's not to say that I don't think he could be productive with the 49ers, but looking a little deeper, Bell's success should be partially contributed to playing alongside quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and receiver Antonio Brown - both Hall of Fame-caliber players.

Defenses are weary of stacking the box with eight defenders with Brown out wide as Bell only faced eight or more defenders on 19.94% of his charted runs. Bell has almost always had space to work with. The 49ers don't currently have the talent out wide that the Steelers do. Defenses would stack the box and put the pressure on Bell all game long, forcing 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them with his arm, likely decreasing Bell's production.

Beyond that, the 49ers need to think about longevity. Bell has over 1500 touches in his career and averages 308 per season. That's a lot of miles for a 26-year-old running back who will likely want a long-term deal with high guarantees - something the 49ers haven't been keen on doing outside of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. There's little chance the 49ers would be willing to shell out major guarantees for a back nearing 30 years old and close to 2,000 touches.

McKinnon, who is the same age and has almost 1,000 fewer touches, could put up numbers close to what we would expect from Bell in coach Kyle Shanahan's offense. That doesn't mean that I'm comparing the two, but Shanahan knows how to get the best out of his players.

In 2017, former 49ers running back Carlos Hyde managed to rack up 1,288 total yards and eight touchdowns. It's unclear how well McKinnon will do, but it isn't a stretch to say that he can top those numbers in 2018. McKinnon is a quicker and more elusive back with better ability as a receiver.

With the aforementioned considered, you can start to seehow signing Bell to a mega-deal might not hold value for the 49ers. They have made all the right moves so far in the current regime and inking the league's highest-paid running back would be the first move that could set them back in the long run.

The money they would spend bringing in Bell would be better invested into the defense's lack of pass rush. The 2019 free agent market may see the availability of premier pass-rushing talent in Dallas Cowboys' Demarcus Lawrence and Detroit Lions' Ezekiel Ansah. Both would be better options as the 49ers can likely muster solid production from their current running back for much less money.

As flashy as it would be to see Bell in the red and gold, it would be a costly mistake that could keep the franchise from taking its next step towards a Super Bowl run.
The views within this article are those of the writer and, while just as important, are not necessarily those of the site as a whole.


0 Comments

  • No Comments

Facebook Comments



More San Francisco 49ers News



What was real? What wasn't? Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch clear up weeks of 49ers rumors and speculation

By Kirk Larrabee
Apr 29, 2021

Now that it's all over and the 49ers have decided on quarterback Trey Lance of North Dakota State as their selection with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft, how much of what was circulating about the pick throughout the past month over the NFL was actually true? Not a whole lot, according to 49ers general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan. Ever since the 49ers made the decision to trade up from pick 12 to pick three in late March, the NFL newswire has been filled with speculation and reports about what the 49ers were planning to do. Many felt like the 49ers had their eye on quarterback Mac Jones of Alabama, who wound up getting selected at pick 15 by the New England Patriots. Some felt quarterback Justin Fields of Ohio State might wind up



Silver explains why he believes the 49ers will draft Mac Jones

By David Bonilla
Apr 23, 2021

Michael Silver took to Twitter on Friday to share his thoughts on the San Francisco 49ers' looming quarterback decision. Last month, the team traded up to the No. 3 overall spot to acquire a future replacement for Jimmy Garoppolo, who has struggled to stay on the field during his time in Santa Clara. Silver notes that he has been repeatedly asked about the pick and the 49ers' thinking. While it is NFL Network's policy not to "tip picks," he does have some thoughts based on what he has heard from around the league. 1) As per NFL Network policy, I am not allowed to "tip picks"... and, in any case, this is not



Rapoport explains 49ers' thinking when it comes to the No. 3 pick, and why Justin Fields may be out

By David Bonilla
Apr 26, 2021

Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported on Sunday night that the San Francisco 49ers' decision regarding the No. 3 overall pick had come down to Mac Jones of Alabama versus Trey Lance of North Dakota State. If accurate, that means Justin Fields of Ohio State is likely out of the picture in the minds of head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch. There was also a report from Todd McShay of ESPN that sources around the league believe that Shanahan is leaning toward Jones, while the 49ers' personnel department is pushing for Lance. That matches up with what



'It begins and ends with accuracy': Jeremiah explains why he thinks 49ers will draft Mac Jones

By David Bonilla
Apr 27, 2021

What is it that possibly has San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan so enamored with Mac Jones of Alabama? So much so that he might pass on Justin Fields of Ohio State or Trey Lance of North Dakota State. The latter two are seen as having higher ceilings in the eyes of most analysts. That includes NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah. If the decision were up to Jeremiah, he would pick Lance before Jones. He would even pick Fields instead of the former Crimson Tide quarterback. "Kind of going through the whole process of both those guys, that would be my choice, between those two, because I do think they expand the playbook," Jeremiah told Rich Eisen on The Rich Eisen Show. "And to kind of use a phrase you hear more and more in the NFL right now, you get


Featured

More by Bobby Horne

More Articles

Share 49ersWebzone