Let's give Baalke's last two drafts the benefit of our doubts. Let's say all the previous draft picks and free agents come to the fore, and, further, that the medical redshirts stay healthy. Let's say that the sage one has, indeed, already accumulated the necessary ammunition to, as he said last winter, "reload." Let's say, just for kicks, that we will someday remember 2015 as the year when several new starters leapt forward, some of them superb. Even so, Baalke must still replace those replacements. In other words, the 49ers not only have to reload, they also, simultaneously, must rebuild. They must reload
and rebuild.
Take, for example, Craig Dahl. Miscast early in his career as a starter in St. Louis, he is nonetheless a serviceable player, who can fill in for a few snaps at safety and contribute on special teams. Every roster needs such players. Still, should Bethea retire and/or, heaven forbid, Eric Reid sustain another concussion, few would expect Dahl to permanently replace either. Perhaps
Jimmie Ward, or another younger player, might eventually fit into a reconfigured secondary. Whether from injuries, attrition, retirements, or player movement, NFL rosters can turn over rapidly, as Niner fans now well know. Because of this, the more young, cheap, potential future front-line starters on the depth charts, the better.
Baalke's first signing in free agency, Torrey Smith, represents a classic implementation of the reload strategy. NFL teams often damage their long-term prospects by overestimating the quality of their existing roster. After all, they know these players and selected them themselves. How could they possibly be wrong about their own personnel? We know what we're doing, they tell themselves, surely we will contend. Why, we're only one or two players away!
Thus does hubris and organizational overreach tempt teams to overspend on free agents, or to trade multiple draft picks just to get that one would-be savior who will purportedly put them over the top. Sometimes, these teams turn out to be right. Last year, New England rode a one-year rental of Darrelle Revis to the Super Bowl. But, more often, the short-term fix hamstrings a team's long-term prospects, as when Ditka's Saints infamously traded their entire slate of draft choices to secure the selection of just one player, Ricky Williams. Or, sometimes, the supposed savior can even become a toxic asset. Just ask the Seahawks about Percy Harvin. Eventually, they gave him the gate. Notice, too, that the Patriots, rather than jeopardize their whole personnel structure, this off-season let Revis walk.
Heretofore, Baalke, even when the Niners had a flush roster, has not succumbed to the just-a-couple-players-away temptation. He recognizes the opportunity cost of squandered draft picks, ill-conceived deals, and cumbersome contracts. However, with all the off-season turmoil, and the pressures that come with it, will he abandon his talent-acquisition discipline? And was the signing of T. Smith to the largest free-agent contract of the Baalke era the first incremental move toward salary-cap perdition?
I don't think so. Fans already know that the structure of Smith's contract insures that it does not exceed his market value, and that this in-his-prime receiver fills a need. I like the signing also for a couple of other reasons. First, far from hubristic, the signing represents a de facto admission that the 49ers during Baalke's tenure have mostly failed to identify and develop young receivers. Maybe Patton and/or Ellington will eventually pan out, but, until then, if you can't pick 'em, purloin 'em. Second, both the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick remain in the years-of-decision register regarding the future of the quarterback position, and the Niners still want to give Colin every possible opportunity to succeed by surrounding him with complimentary cohorts. Also, Torrey seems like a genuinely high-character kind of a guy.
Even if, early in the off-season, Baalke had tended toward a full-on reload-not-rebuild action, subsequent events have surely choked it back. The tumultuous player exodus that shocked some fans probably, at the very least, prompted some second thoughts in the front office. A cavalcade of possible low-cost free agents has since paraded through Ninerland, and continues apace as of this writing. Baalke always likes to sign a few of these roster fillers, both to shore up depth and to keep opposing teams guessing about which players the 49ers may or may not take during the draft, but this year he might have to settle for more than the usual quotient of just flat-out warm bodies. It will take more than one off-season to replenish the rearranged young talent.
How ironic that, during his first season replacing Harbaugh as the putative co-face of the franchise, Trent Baalke now faces, full frontal, perhaps his most difficult challenge. On the other hand, the flux has provided, also ironically, the new head coach, Jimmie T. -- as Jed calls him -- with some room to breathe. No one can convincingly say, whatever the Niners' 2015 record, that Coach Tomsula messed up Harbaugh's team. This ain't Harbaugh's team any longer, if it ever was -- simply too much turnover to call it such.
So the new coach gets a fresh start, in more ways than one, a maiden season during which his positive attitude and aw-shucks demeanor may very well, in contrast to his predecessor, wear well, at least until his team goes into a prolonged losing streak. But the 49ers are not now entirely bereft of talent. They're just not the stacked-roster juggernaut that blasted through the league just a few years ago. And even avid Harbaugh supporters will not miss the wolverine's battles with the game and play clocks, his travails with timeouts, nor his at-times intransigent offensive philosophies. Hell, no one can tell for sure what kind of team the 49ers may produce this year, and that uncertainty brings with it a brace of hope, as well as anxiety. If Kaepernick and the offense improves, if the replacements excel, and if key players avoid injuries, this team could carouse its way right back into the playoff mix. (Ah, the off-season, a time of emphatic "if's.")
In any case, Tomsula will probably get a long, fair trial to remain head coach. He gets along with folks, shows well at team functions, and does not outshine the owner during joint press conferences. Seriously, the ability to get along with others is not a negligible skill. And Tomsula possesses another attribute that may also endear him to his owner. Scribes have dubbed Coach Jim a "working class, blue collar, guy," something many owners seek: someone to oversee, but not supersede, the team. A coach, according to some owners, should know, and remember, his place in the team hierarchy. Jimmie T may just suit Jed York's "win-with-class-distinctions-intact" dictum. None of which, of course, precludes the man from becoming a fine NFL head coach.
I think the 49ers will be fun to watch this year, and may delight us in unexpected ways. So, too, may their new head coach. We don't really know what to expect from this guy, or from his team. That's part of the fun, and possible frustration, of being a fan.
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Nikola Marjanovic
I am a little bit sick and tired of "Trent Balkee Draft Ninja" fame. Let us face it - he is not that successful. And it is not only 2012. What did we get in 2013? Except Reid, who contributed up to now? Let us see for a moment what a real draft ninja could have done. In 2010, he could have kdrafted Earl Thomas (instead of A. Davis) and Dez Bryant (instead of M. Iupati); in 2011, he could have drafted J.J u. Watt (instead of A. Smith) and Richard Sherman (instead of D. Kilgore); min 2012, he could have drafted A. Jeffery (instead of A.J. Jenkins) and Y.Y. Hilton (instead of L. James); and in 2013, he could have drafted Trevis Kelce or Jordan Reed 9instead of V. McDonald. Can you imagine, in that case, our offense in 2014 consisting of: QB Kap, RB Gore and Hyde, WR Bryant, Jeffery, Hilton and Boldin, TE Davis, Kelce (Reed) and LT Staley, Looney, M. Martin, Boone, J. Martin? Or deffense, consisting of: DL J. Smith, Dorsey, J.J. Watt, McDonald and Dorsey, OLB Brooks, Lynch, ILB Willis, Bowman, Borland; S Thomas, Reid and CB Sherman, Culliver, Cox, Brok? If Balkee have managed drafts like these, I would consider him as a Draft Ninja.
Apr 9, 2015 at 12:23 PM
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Dallas Niner Fan
I disagree with you, You say that our new coach will have room to breath, that may be true with management but not with the fans. Anything less than the playoffs are going to make most fans angry. By the way, let me remind you that Jed York said that anything less than winning the Super Bowl is unacceptable. That sounds like a lot of pressure to me. Its great to get emotional and feel excited about the new coaching staff. The problem is that the probability of them being successful is very, very low. Also, don't forget the politics here. We have an average General Manager running the show who thinks he is also the head coach. I admire your optimism however.
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:16 AM
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Bob
I think Tomsula is going to be a very good coach.
The players love him. He is a very good teacher. Everybody that knows him praises his leadership and understanding of the game. He may not be a public speaker or can handle the media like Harbaugh, but he will coach this team to the playoffs. Tomsula is more detail oriented than Harbaugh. His team will be prepared better than they have been. Read the comments from the players when he coached the Arizona game after Singletary was fired.
Apr 2, 2015 at 4:14 PM
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Marty
Finally Harbaugh is back in college where he belongs. He will feel great smashing Division 3 schools. Looking forward to the Michigan vs. Ohio St. game.
49ers need to find NFL coaches. So many of the young 49ers are now on other NFL teams. SF has become Seattle's minor league team. Its been hard watching the ugly 49ers offense. 49ers have had the players to win two or three SBs. But in the big games Harbaugh screwed it up. In the three big losses the 49ers were the better team. It was the inept coaching staff that cost the 49ers. Rightly so Harbaugh will be remembered as the only 49er coach to loose a SB. That will be his legacy.
Baalke is not perfect, but who is when drafting. Maybe the new coaching staff will be able to coach, design & manage the 49ers. The old staff was clueless.
Apr 2, 2015 at 8:34 AM
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tommy
First of all if Tomsula would have been that great as a coach he would have been a team coach in the NFL long time ago. A great coach like Walsh takes you out of your comfort zone and they are not in it for a personality contest. Otherwise players will never get it. The niners are very much fragmented and the negative press will be keeping them in the bottom four. Now Borland quits a strong omen of the Jed Yorks cursr. Kap will be out 1 year n niners will have a devastating bad year I'm afraid. Nice try but writer is in denial!!.
Apr 2, 2015 at 7:32 AM
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Al wharton
I think Baalke killed us when he picked AJ Jenkins and RB out of Oregon . I think he relies too much on stats and what they did in college , but in the NFL you have to be big and fast to compete with the other NFL players. His picks either boom or bust no in between . Aldon Smith is a prime example .
Apr 2, 2015 at 7:23 AM
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ben
I believe Baalke is quite prudent, we'll see with Tomsula:
1. Scouting has delivered a good influx of young talent. We've missed some, but that's normal.
2. Fangio was tops, but the scheme on offense seemed to progressively diverge from the personnel. They're saying the right things now??"can they can make it happen?
3. Blame Harbaugh and the FO for past failings, but they're trying to fix communication issues by hiring JT. If this becomes a strength (we'll see), don't underestimate the potential positive impact.
4. Harbaugh was a bad game manager and could not sufficiently adapt when required. This will also be the make or break for JT. As for the FO, if nothing else, they have shown an aggressive approach to adaptability which I like. There is a time to sit still and a time to change-- right or wrong, you can't fault them for being passive.
5. FO excels at financial management (see letting Gore go). I don't see this changing.
6. If we believe in any sort of karmic universal balance, luck has got to swing our way now, right? We'll see...
If they can walk the talk, with some luck we'll be fine. If everything were predictable, why would we watch?
Apr 2, 2015 at 3:24 AM
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I HATE LOWELL COHN & SON
Very well thought out article and I enjoyed reading it. IMO we lost an almost over the hill RB, two ILB, G, two CB and a role playing OLB. I don't list Crab because we signed Smith. Baalke knows corners and we had the money to pay them so if he thought they were valuable he would have signed at least one of them. Gore is more valuable in Indy than here not to mention the fact he sulked after games last year and his pass blocking sucked. With Bush you can have him on the field in the slot and Hyde or Hunter in the backfield or if you want to get really creative Ellington. Iupati got beat like a drum and we either already have his replacement or can draft one. Bishop is solid depth and if healthy could take Wilhoite's job. Again they could draft someone and Willis has been solid but he hasn't been a playmaker since early 2010 because of the toe. I think if Colin improves we will be better than last year. With a good draft at a few key positions to either add starters or good depth I think we are a playoff team. The coaching is the question mark, however I love Mangini. I mean Harbaugh and Belichek liked him so thst alone says a lot and Chryst would have been our OC had Roman left.
Apr 2, 2015 at 3:22 AM
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ben
Refreshingly well-written and well thought through.
Boiling down long-term consistent NFL success to basic factors would have to include some constellation of the following:
1. Scouting- talented personnel (incl. playmakers and well-suited role players) fit to scheme
2. A scheme fit to personnel- not a chicken/egg question, it goes both ways
3. Communication between all parties-- players, coaches (coaching), FO
4. Competent management/ speed of learning, adaptation-- in-game, in scheme, in personnel/ FO decisions
5. Fiscal responsibility
6. Luck
A team may have short-term success despite suboptimal outcomes in some areas, but long-term success requires positive outcomes in all more often than not. All franchises know this and drive to consistently deliver on all fronts. But full control is not possible-- mistakes will occur, things sometimes just won't work out. The key is to focus on what can be controlled to ensure the best position to handle the inevitable challenges. (continued in next comment)
Apr 2, 2015 at 3:19 AM
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RishikeshA
Thanks D.C., The one thing I admire about the organization is that they have a fiscal policy they stick with. I think all 49er fans are optimistic that the team will do well on the field. If 3 or 4 of the redshirt picks become stars the team will not miss a beat.
Apr 1, 2015 at 11:06 PM
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Jack Stewart
I think we need to give Baalke some credit with drafting. His AJ Jenkins draft was awful, but last year he brought us Borland, Lynch, and Hyde, as well as Ward, Dontae Johnson, and Ellington, all of whom have shown some promise. But this year's draft is crucial. We need corners and a good receiver who will develop. I think we'll be able to judge Tomsula by how the D plays. After all, Fangio spent weeks without PW or Bow, the entire season without Brock, and Ray Mac was gone with several weeks left in the season. And yet the D was excellent until about the last few weeks when we were down to our 8th or 9th corner and 5th or 6th ILB. Tomsula's D needs to be a good one.
Apr 1, 2015 at 10:21 PM
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Napier
The lack of depth last year exposed Baalke's wasteful picks at times, namely drafting injured players or trying to re-purpose guys in to new positions. Most of those guys are gone and most never had a real impact.
Most people in and around the league believed the 49ers had one of the smartest and most talented coaching staffs.
Jim Tomsula may be a likeable guy, blue collar, and whatever else but he will fail. He will fail because he and his staff are miles behind Pete Carroll, and the rest of the NFC West. He is another Mike Singletary without the player credentials and HOF jacket.
The 49ers will not be fun to watch this year. It will be very apparent by midseason that 8-8 will look like a great year by comparison.
Apr 1, 2015 at 8:48 PM
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kurtis
Trent has done a phenomenal job. I cringe when I see Facebook memes and threads blasting him. He's always taken the approach of win now while also building towards the future. Too many teams get stuck with poor draft choices and bad free agent deals. For the most part Baalke has been successful avoiding that. He deserves far more credit for that than he receives. I'm more confident in the bounce back of this team because of Trent's ability to keep this team young and talented. That being said, we can't afford another 2012 draft.
Apr 1, 2015 at 8:40 PM
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Jeff Shaffer
Whether I agree or not with all your points, very well written. Nice job.
Apr 1, 2015 at 6:49 PM