How valuable is Deebo Samuel to the San Francisco 49ers? According to FS1's Colin Cowherd, the team may struggle to secure a win against the Detroit Lions on Sunday if the star receiver is sidelined.
Samuel's status for the NFC Championship Game remains uncertain due to a shoulder injury. Fortunately, tests revealed no broken bones, a positive result compared to his Week 6 injury against the Cleveland Browns, where he suffered a hairline fracture in his shoulder. San Francisco lost that game and the two subsequent games that Samuel missed.
Samuel's status for this weekend remains unclear, with head coach Kyle Shanahan stating, "It wasn't broken, so that was a real good sign, but still hurting too much for us to really have an idea how it's going to heal up this week. So we've just got to be patient, see how he feels on Wednesday, and based off of if it's improving, it'll give us a better idea whether he has a chance for the game or not."
Cowherd foresees another defeat for the 49ers if Samuel doesn't suit up against the Lions.
"When you view the Niners, don't we view them as creative and unpredictable and clever? They are with Deebo," Cowherd said. "But I'll argue, when you take Deebo out of the Niners, they're actually a very traditional offense with one deep receiver, an old-school, physical tight end, and a dominant running back.
"Think about this: With Deebo, the Niners win 70 percent of their games. Without Deebo, they're the Raiders, 8-9, with a star receiver, a dominant running back, a really good left tackle, and a quarterback who you don't trust. And a great edge rusher.
"Think I'm joking? What do the Raiders have? Maxx Crosby, Davante Adams, a great left tackle, star running back. ... And the Raiders are in a tougher division, arguably, and a tougher conference. Christian McCaffrey is the best player. Deebo is the X-factor. Without Deebo, they're 8-9."
"Without Deebo, they're the Raiders... You think I'm joking."
— @ColinCowherd on San Francisco's X factor ahead of NFC championship pic.twitter.com/PlK8oSML4d
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) January 23, 2024
The 49ers averaged 31.4 points per game with Samuel in the lineup. In the three games where he was injured, they scored just 17 points in each loss. Cowherd expands those statistics throughout the receiver's career, stating that the 49ers average 27 points per game with Samuel and 24 without him.
"The turnover differential with Deebo? Plus-25," Cowherd continues. "Without Deebo? Minus-eight. That's since Deebo entered the league."
He deduces that Samuel is worth three points by himself. The home-team 49ers are currently a touchdown favorite against the visiting Lions. If Samuel is worth three points, that narrows the spread significantly if he can't play. We'll see if oddsmakers agree, should the ailing wideout fail to practice this week.
Cowherd adds, "I will take the Lions if Deebo does not play. ... When he leaves, they are a [team with] one deep threat, an old-school tight end, and a dominant running back with a great edge rusher. And a quarterback nobody truly trusts if you press him."