Texas Stadium. November 12, 1995. The San Francisco 49ers, playing without Steve Young, were not supposed to go into Dallas and beat the Cowboys. In fact, the 49ers were 13.5-point underdogs, the highest ever for a defending Super Bowl Champion.
But on one of the first plays of the game, QB Elvis Grbac hit Jerry Rice on a short slant that Rice took 81 yards to deliver a stunning first blow to the Cowboys. It went downhill fast after that for the Cowboys, who ended up playing most of that game without Troy Aikman after he left with an injury early in the game, and lost 38-20.
I was one of the 65,180 who attended the game, but one of only a few wearing red and gold. I didn't care. It was my very first 49ers game to attend, and I was going to make as much noise as I could.
While the game was a blast for me, the week leading up to it was stressful. Dallas was on a roll. The 49ers, at 5-4, were struggling, having lost their last two, and three of their last four. The loss before the Dallas game was to the expansion Carolina Panthers. No defending Super Bowl Champion had ever lost to an expansion team. And without Young, it looked bleak for the Champs.
But you never know what's going to happen in the NFL. It was supposed to be a revenge game for the Cowboys. The 49ers had knocked them out of the playoffs in the previous season and had also beaten them during the 1994 regular season. Dallas felt like they owed the 49ers, and everyone was picking them to win.
Sound familiar? The 49ers are gearing up to host another Dallas team that is hungry for revenge and believes they have what it takes to upset the 49ers. Here are five keys to victory for the 49ers to once again beat the Cowboys.
1. Force Dak Prescott into some bad decisions
Dak Prescott has played well so far this season, but he has struggled in the past two meetings against the 49ers. Prescott has completed 71.3% of his passes in 2023. He's been efficient, getting the ball out quickly, and completing a lot of short passes. His air yards per attempt is 5.5 this year, which ranks 33rd in the league. So he's taking a lot of short drops and hitting a lot of underneath targets.
Look for the Cowboys to approach this game the same way, and try to get the ball out before the 49ers' pass rush can get home. It's the strategy the Rams, Cardinals, and even the Giants used.
The question will be how long Prescott can be patient and stick with this strategy against a swarming 49ers defense. If he sticks with it the way Matthew Stafford and Joshua Dobbs did, the Cowboys could have some offensive success against the 49ers. But if Prescott gets rattled, he could throw some balls up for grabs and turn it over.
This season, the Cowboys have protected the football well. And on defense, they've been excellent at getting turnovers. They lead the league in turnover margin. The 49ers cannot allow the Cowboys to protect the football and then give them extra possessions by turning it over themselves.
This game very well could come down to turnovers, so whoever wins that battle likely will win the game.
2. Keep Micah Parsons and company away from Brock Purdy
The Dallas pass rush is no joke. They can get after the quarterback. According to Nick Wagoner, of ESPN, the Cowboys lead the NFL in pass rush win rate (60.6%), with Micah Parsons leading the league at 36.4%, and fellow EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence is 6th (28%). Dallas has an impressive 48.9% pressure rate, which is first in the NFL by 13%. They also blitz at the 9th highest rate in the league. So they create a lot of pressure.
And their pass rush is creating takeaways. The Cowboys have scored four touchdowns on defense and special teams already this season. DaRon Bland had two interceptions last week against the Patriots, returning one for a touchdown. Leighton Vander Esch also scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery.
Pass rush. Turnovers. Scoring on defense and special teams. That sounds like a really tough test for Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense.
The good news is that, according to Wagoner, the Cowboys have played the highest rate of man coverage (68.7%) in the league over the past two seasons (and 2nd highest this year). And Purdy has been very good against man coverage. His 89.0 QBR, 8.7 yards per attempt, and 14 to 2 TD/INT ratio are all top three in the NFL versus man during his short NFL career. And that doesn't even include what Purdy does to teams when they blitz.
So Purdy has handled the style of defense the Cowboys play. The question is, will his offensive line be able to handle the pressure Dallas puts on them? More specifically, does Colton McKivitz have any chance of blocking Parsons?
3. Bottle up Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard is currently the fifth leading rusher in the NFL, with 311 yards on the ground. He's a dynamic player who has also added 61 yards as a receiver. The receiving numbers aren't anything great, but Pollard is a dangerous running back. Look for the Cowboys to try to establish the run early and often. As long as they don't fall behind, they'll stick with the run.
The Dallas offensive line has dealt with some injuries this season, but they should be mostly healthy. This group is still good and is much better in the run game than they are in pass protection.
Bottle up Pollard, and make the Cowboys one-dimensional, and you have a good chance of beating them and forcing some turnovers when Prescott begins to get antsy.
4. Keep Ambry Thomas off the field
If Ambry Thomas gets in the game, the Cowboys will immediately go after him. That's what the Steelers did. It's what the Cardinals did. It's what I would do if I was the quarterback. Thomas is not having a good season.
The third-year corner has played some this season whenever the 49ers have pulled Isaiah Oliver off the field and put Deommodore Lenoir at nickel corner. That move has caused Thomas to enter the game at one of the outside corners. And it's gone poorly each time.
One thing to watch will be who the Cowboys use in the slot. They've used CeeDee Lamb some this season. And they've used Brandin Cooks, as well. Who they line up in the slot could be a very important development because Oliver is best at covering bigger receivers, like Lamb. And the 49ers' defense is best when Oliver is on the field because that means Lenoir can stay on the outside and Thomas can stay on the sideline.
But Oliver is not a good matchup against smaller, quicker receivers. So if Dallas puts Cooks in the slot, it may force Lenoir inside, which means Thomas will be on the field. And that's bad for the 49ers.
5. Use your YAC brothers
The Cowboys haven't been very good at tackling in the passing game. And that's bad news when you're about to face the YAC brothers. If the 49ers are going to move the ball, and score points against this talented Dallas defense, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle will need to make plays with the ball in their hands.
We've seen them do it game after game. They're the best in the business at getting yards after the catch (or after first contact). If the 49ers offensive line can keep Parsons and Lawrence away from Purdy, and the QB has time to get the ball out, it will be a long day for the Cowboys.
But if Dallas can put pressure on Purdy like they've been able to generate so far this season, they might be able to create some turnovers. And that could be disastrous for the 49ers.
The 1995 49ers beat an angry Cowboys team and made it three wins in a row. Can the 2023 49ers do the same thing?
