Do the 49ers still believe in Trey Lance?

We're less than two weeks away from the 49ers reporting to training camp (rookies report next week), and we already know that the San Francisco QB news will be the most prominent topic coming out of the practices. There will be videos of quarterbacks throwing passes in warmups, reporters giving us QB stats, writers writing about it, and content creators talking about it daily. And most of us will read and watch each one.

I've had a handful of fans tell me they're sick of reading and hearing about the 49ers QB situation. I understand that, but when the national media and local media keep it on the forefront, and when the team itself, keeps the drama alive, we will continue to discuss and write about the quarterbacks (like I'm doing right now), especially when three first-round picks were used on one of them.

Speaking of that quarterback, I remember thinking the Alex Smith saga divided the fanbase. Then Jimmy Garoppolo came along and made the Smith controversy seem mild. And just when I thought no player could top the Garoppolo rollercoaster, along comes Trey Lance.

It's important to point out that these players have not caused the drama. They just happen to be playing a position on a team whose fanbase expects greatness and championships. Smith, Garoppolo, and Lance have done nothing wrong. So any concerns over Trey Lance should actually be about the 49ers, rather than Lance. He didn't trade multiple first-round picks and draft himself.

And while the fanbase and media may be divided on whether Lance will be the 49ers QB of the future, the only opinions that matter reside at 4949 Marie P. DeBartolo Way, namely John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan.

So do the 49ers still believe in Trey Lance? I tend to think they do, but there are four things that make me ask the question:

1. Kyle Shanahan's play-calling

In 15 games (60 quarters) in 2022, Garoppolo and Brock Purdy ran the ball a combined 39 times. In comparison, Lance has carried the ball 42 times in less than four career games (under 15 quarters). Garoppolo and Purdy averaged 2.6 rushes per game last season. Lance, in 10 quarters as a rookie in 2021, and less than five quarters in 2022, has averaged over 10 carries per game.

If Lance had the ability to run like Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson, that would be a little more understandable, but he doesn't have that kind of ability. Fields and Jackson are running quarterbacks. Lance is a quarterback who is mobile. There's a difference.

Shanahan calls plays differently when Lance is in the game. He obviously doesn't trust Lance to throw like he does with Garoppolo or Purdy. Granted, most of that time was in Lance's rookie season, and the rest was in a rainy game in Chicago. But Purdy was a rookie last season, and Shanahan still let him throw.

2. Media leaks

Last offseason there were a lot of controversial things said about Lance and the 49ers, ranging from arm fatigue to coaches and players losing faith in Lance. Some of those things now appear to be true, although some of it was either untrue or out of context. This offseason has been no different.

Schefter went on to suggest Sam Darnold (more on him below) has the edge in the race to be QB2. Forget about the fact that the competition doesn't really begin until training camp.

Albert Breer recently told Colin Cowherd, "Now, it doesn't mean Trey Lance can't come back and work his way forward, but I think that they feel like they've already given this guy a lot of chances."

Did he really say the 49ers have given Lance a lot of chances? He's played less than 15 quarters. That's not a lot. And what's with referring to Lance as "this guy?" That just sounds demeaning, as if Lance is some no-named afterthought. If this is coming from the team, in that tone, I'm even more concerned for Lance than I was before.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said multiple times this offseason that Darnold is QB2. One time he referred to Lance as the third-string quarterback, but another time, when discussing 49ers QBs, he didn't even mention Lance. He mentioned Darnold, who arrived in March of 2023. But he didn't mention the guy who has been here since April 2021. He's also suggested more than once that the 49ers will look to trade Lance.

So are guys like Rapoport, Schefter, and Breer making things up just for clicks? I really doubt it. Those guys have to maintain good relationships with teams, in order to continue to gain access to insider information, breaking news, etc. So I doubt they would make up something and risk burning those bridges.

I think it's more likely that they hear something, probably from someone in the building, and then run with it, so as to be the one who broke the news. Sometimes what they hear may be spot on, but sometimes it may not be, like when everyone was reporting the 49ers would draft Mac Jones. Were those reports misunderstandings? Were they smokescreens? Or did the 49ers change course and go in a different direction?

Either way, it appears that there are some things the 49ers are allowing to get out there.

3. Questionable support

Not only do the 49ers occasionally let things get out, they don't seem to be that concerned with putting out fires that get started. There are sometimes negative things said about Lance, or about the 49ers' opinion of Lance, that I expect the team to squash immediately. But they don't. Is it because there is truth to what's being said? Or is it because they simply don't care what's being said?

They'll eventually come out when they are forced to speak to the media and voice their support for Lance. But it always feels different than how they would speak about Garoppolo, or how they discuss Purdy's injury recovery. It feels canned, and lacks the same conviction.

Mike Silver posted on Threads last week that one 49ers coach said, regarding Lance this offseason, "He looks better in every way... but until we see him in a game, we have absolutely no idea if he'll be good enough." That sounds positive but it's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

I don't necessarily disagree with what that coach said. It's true that we don't know what Lance can do. But usually, coaches talk up the player and how they believe in the player, especially young quarterbacks. This coach was honest enough to say what we are all thinking. But it does make me wonder whether or not it's a sign that they don't believe in Lance. Wouldn't the team want to take a more supportive tone?

Some of Lance's teammates have spoken positively about him this offseason, but not like they have for Purdy. And not like they used to speak about Garoppolo. And certainly not like you'd want them to talk about the quarterback they gave up so much for.

George Kittle recently spoke about Lance. "Trey has been great," Kittle told Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area at Tight End University in Nashville. "I think he took steps forward in the OTAs. It's really fun when you start connecting on plays that you might have struggled [with] in the past, and that's something that we did at OTAs a couple of times, so that was fun. Got to get a lot of extra work in with them."

Last week, Greg Cosell went on the Ross Tucker Podcast and said, "I don't think they [the 49ers] soured on Trey Lance. He's a work in progress and this is not a work in progress roster…"

I think that's really the biggest issue. Lance needs time to play and learn and grow, but the 49ers' roster is such that they may not have the liberty to allow him that time.

4. Signing Sam Darnold

Perhaps the biggest sign that the 49ers are no longer convinced that Lance can be the franchise QB is the fact that they signed Darnold on the first day of free agency. Signing a quarterback on the first day of free agency doesn't seem like something you do when you project that player to be QB3. And normally, guys like Darnold (a former number three overall draft pick who has been a starter) don't sign with a team at the start of free agency to be a third-stringer. Was Darnold promised something in order to get him to come to San Francisco?

And let's go back to Schefter suggesting Darnold has the edge in the race to be QB2. Darnold himself admitted around the same time that he is still trying to learn the playbook. And yet there are media members preparing us for Darnold to be Purdy's backup...in June...before Darnold is comfortable with the playbook.

Do the 49ers still believe in Trey Lance? I'm still standing by my belief that they do, and that he will be Brock Purdy's backup until he becomes the starter in another couple of years. But there are some things that make me think Lance has yet to receive a fair shake in San Francisco—and maybe never will.

• Marc Adams
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