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Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports


Can the San Francisco 49ers hand the Atlanta Falcons their first ATS loss? Week 6, 2022 odds and pick

Oct 12, 2022 at 11:29 PM


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The San Francisco 49ers secured another big win but again sustained big injuries in dominating the Panthers in Carolina, one day before Matt Rhule was dismissed. The Niners stayed on the east coast for a second straight road game as they try to be the first team to cover a spread against the Atlanta Falcons. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

  • When: Sunday October 16, 2022 at 10:00am PT (FOX)
  • Where: Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta Georgia
  • Line: 49ers -5.5; o/u 44.5

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons got jobbed by an extremely soft roughing the passer call on 3rd down to Tom Brady, late in the 4th quarter on a play that essentially cost the Falcons a chance to win the game that ended in a 15-21 loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though they covered the 10 point spread to make it 5 in a row against the number.

After five weeks, Atlanta ranks 22nd in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at -5.3 percent, 13th in offensive DAVE at 1.0 percent with a 18th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 6.5 percent and 2nd ranked offensive rush DVOA at 14.7 percent. The Falcons defense is rated 30th in defensive DAVE at 6.2 percent with a 20th rated defensive pass DVOA at 11.6 percent and 27th rated defensive rush DVOA at 5.7 percent.

Marcus Mariota is 19th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 58 and 17th in total QBR at 49.9 with 4 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, a 58.2 completion percentage,156 yards rushing, averaging 4.2 yards per carry with 4 rushing touchdowns and 2 fumbles. Atlanta's offensive line is 8th in run blocking with 4.82 adjusted line yards and 25th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 8.9 percent. The Falcons' defensive line is 28th against the run with 5.07 adjusted line yards and 31st with an adjusted sack rate of 4.6 percent.

The Falcons are 5-0 ATS and 3-2 to the over/under. Running back Cordarrelle Patterson remains on IR, linebacker Adetokunbo Ogundeji, tackle Elijah Wilkinson, receiver Drake London, cornerback Isaiah Oliver, tight end Kyle Pitts, linebacker Mykal Walker and and cornerback Casey Hayward are questionable for the Falcons in Week 6.

San Francisco 49ers

Jeff Wilson Jr rushed for 120 yards on 17 carries with a rushing touchdown, Tevin Coleman added a rushing and receiving touchdown, Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 253 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Niners defense returned an interception for a touchdown and sacked Baker Mayfield 4 times but lost Nick Bosa and Emmanuel Moseley to injury in a 37-15 drubbing of the Carolina Panthers.

After five weeks, San Francisco ranks 7th in total DAVE at 8.0 percent, 14th in offensive DAVE at 0.3 percent with a 11th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 21.5 percent and 21st ranked offensive rush DVOA at -9.8 percent. The 49er defense is rated 2nd in defensive DAVE at -10.4 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -24.2 percent and 1st rated defensive rush DVOA at -30.0 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 283 and 21st in total QBR at 41.4 with 5 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a 61.3 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 23rd in run blocking with 4.22 adjusted line yards and 15th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.4 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.38 adjusted line yards and 3rd with an adjusted sack rate of 10.0 percent.

The 49ers are 3-2 ATS and 1-4 to the over/under. Cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is out for the season, running back Jeff Wilson Jr, cornerback Deommodore Lenoir and running back Tyrion Davis-Price are probable, guard Aaron Banks, defensive end Samson Ebukam, receiver Danny Gray, safety Tarvarious Moore, defensive end Nick Bosa, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, defensive tackle Arik Armstead and kicker Robbie Gould are questionable, offensive tackle Colton McKivitz has been placed on IR, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair remains on IR, safety Jimmie Ward and tackle Trent Williams are out for the 49ers in Week 6.

Prediction

While it may seem improbable for the Atlanta Falcons to cover 6 straight games to start the NFL season, the 49ers are also at the top of the market after two convincing wins, and almost 6 points may be too many to lay for a team that will be playing a second straight game on the road after losing two key players in Bosa and Moseley.

The Falcons feature one of the worst defenses in the league, including a porous rushing defense. We anticipate that Kyle Shanahan will call plays that will allow Jeff Wilson Jr to exploit Atlanta's run defense, and when Shanahan's running game is working the entire offense starts clicking.

While the Niners feature the top rushing defense in the league when healthy, almost all of San Francisco's defensive line is questionable and if Atlanta's 2nd ranked rushing offense can find vulnerabilities in San Francisco's defensive line, it may set up opportunities against a hobbled Niner secondary to put up points.

Pick: Over 44.5

2022 Season ATS: 4-2

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Poll

  • What is your best bet for 49ers at Falcons on 10/16/22?
  • 49ers -5.5
    62%
  • Under 44.5
    14%
  • Falcons +5.5
    13%
  • Over 44.5
    11%
  • 231 votes
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