The San Francisco 49ers' stock continues to drop and the possibility of the playoffs becomes more elusive after losing their fourth straight game. But the Niners do not have time to feel sorry for themselves as they must now travel to the Windy City to take on another desperate team in the Chicago Bears. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday October 31st, 2021 at 10:00am PT (FOX)
- Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
- Line: 49ers -3; over/under 39.5
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears are coming off of a humiliating 3-38 loss at Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterback Justin Fields was intercepted three times, sacked four times and unable to facilitate a single touchdown.
After seven weeks, Chicago ranks 24th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -14.4 percent, 29th in offensive DVOA at -21.8 percent with a 31st ranked offensive pass DVOA at -27.7 percent and 9th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -4.3 percent. The Bears defense is rated 8th in defensive DVOA at -6.8 percent with a 7th rated defensive pass DVOA at -3.0 percent and 17th rated defensive rush DVOA at -.11.5 percent.
Justin Fields is 32nd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -448 and 33rd in total QBR at 16.7 with 2 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 57.7 completion percentage. Chicago's offensive line is 12th in run blocking with 4.34 adjusted line yards and 32nd in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 12.2 percent. The Bears' defensive line is 28th against the run with 4.90 adjusted line yards and 1st with an adjusted sack rate of 9.1 percent.
The Bears have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of -4.4 and are 3-4 ATS and 1-6 to the over/under.
Akiem Hicks and Tashaun Gipson Sr. are questionable for Week 8, as is Khalil Mack.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers remain winless at home this season and were embarrassed on national television on both sides of the ball in an 18-30 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
San Francisco ranks 15th in total weighted DVOA at 4.8 percent, 16th in offensive DVOA at 1.6 percent with a 21st ranked offensive pass DVOA at 12.1 percent and 12th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -5.4 percent. The 49er defense is rated 13th in defensive DVOA at -2.9 percent with a 15th rated defensive pass DVOA at 7.6 percent and 10th rated defensive rush DVOA at -7.0 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 24th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 34 and 29th in total QBR at 38.1 with 6 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 65.7 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 9th in run blocking with 4.42 adjusted line yards and 14th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.1 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 8th against the run with 3.78 adjusted line yards and 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.5 percent.
The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 1.1 and are 1-5 ATS and 3-3 to the over/under.
Jaquiski Tartt is out, Azeez Al-Shaair, Dee Ford, Marcel Harris, Trent Williams, Javon Kinlaw, Emmanuel Moseley and Trey Lance are questionable for Week 8.
Prediction
Sharp handicappers will advise buying low when a team has been devalued by the market, and even though San Francisco appears to be approaching its nadir in terms of market value, it is hard to have confidence backing the Niners as a road favorite given their current state of affairs.
We would not be surprised if pro bettors side with San Francisco laying a field goal in this spot, and we would take the Niners if forced to pick a side but see more value on the total.
The last three times these teams have played, the final scores have totaled 23, 29 and 32 points, with Jimmy Garoppolo starting the 15-14 win at Soldier Field in 2017. The Chicago Bears have gone under the total in six straight contests with the highest score totaling 41 points against Tampa Bay's highly potent offense that scored 38 of those points.
Aside from Week 1 against the winless Lions, San Francisco has scored 17 and 11 points and conceded 11 and 17 points in their road games, and the Niners offense continues to drop in its efficiency and will now take on an embarrassed Bears defense that is rated eighth in defensive DVOA with the top ranked pass rush.
Justin Fields is one of the most ineffective quarterbacks in the league, and there is little doubt that the Bears will lean on their running game. Similarly, Kyle Shanahan will likely devise a game plan that will minimize Jimmy Garoppolo's susceptibility to said pass rush by trying to exploit the Bears run defense with Elijah Mitchell.
Run-heavy game plans, ineffective quarterback play, above-average and recently embarrassed defenses are a recipe for a low scoring game. This total opened at 43 and has been bet down to 39.5, indicating that steam could continue to drop the line.
Pick: Under 39.5
2021 Season ATS: 3-3
